The North Dakota caucuses are over, and with all precincts reporting, Kerry has taken half of the vote. Clark came in 26 points behind at 24%, and Dean came in a distant third at 12% and out of the money. Edwards finished just behind Dean, and while I don't think Edwards did a lot of campaigning in North Dakota, these results don't build confidence in his ability to have anything more than regional appeal. So far, Edwards has only won one state in his own backyard, South Carolina, and is running neck-and-neck with Clark in Oklahoma. Kerry has won in the mid-Atlantic region (Delaware), Midwest (Missouri), Upper Midwest (North Dakota), and Southwest (Arizona, possibly New Mexico). Outside the two states I mentioned and Missouri, Edwards hasn't finished better than third and is running fourth in Arizona, New Mexico, and North Dakota. No one seems to be talking about Kerry's national reach.

What does this mean? I think Edwards may have run four years too early; he isn't known enough to be a national candidate yet. If Hillary Clinton decides not to run, or loses her re-election bid for her Senate seat, Edwards could be the early favorite for 2008.

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