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June 25, 2004
Fox Poll Shows Bush Pulling Ahead

A new Fox poll of registered voters -- still not as reliable as likely voters, but better than the sampling done by the recent Washington Post/ABC poll -- shows Bush pulling ahead of Kerry by six points, gaining strength from the booming economy and the approaching transfer of sovereignty to Iraq:

Even as insurgents increase their attacks in the days leading up to the June 30 handover, the publics belief that going to war with Iraq was the right thing to do is holding steady. Majorities believe there was a partnership between Saddam and Al Qaeda, and that military action abroad is necessary to protect from having to fight terrorists on U.S. soil. In addition, brightening impressions on the condition of the economy helped President Bush improve his standing against Democrat John Kerry this week, according to a Fox News poll released Thursday.

President Bush currently has an advantage over Democratic candidate John Kerry in both the two-way matchup and three-way matchups. If the election were held today, the poll finds Bush at 48 percent and Kerry at 42 percent. When independent candidate Ralph Nader is included he receives three percent, Bush 47 percent and Kerry 40 percent.

Since I've been critical of other polls recently, I should also note that this sample is a bit small, just 900 registered voters. However, the differences between this poll and the WaPo/ABC poll are striking. The electorate has not lost confidence in the Iraq phase of the war, although Bush's approval ratings for his command of it still fall below 50%. More importantly, the new poll shows daylight between Bush and Kerry in key battleground states such as Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where Bush's approval numbers all exceed 50%, and in Florida, he leads Kerry by nine points.

It will be interesting to see how much play this poll gets in the media today. (via Power Line)

Sphere It Digg! View blog reactions
Posted by Ed Morrissey at June 25, 2004 7:10 AM

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