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July 13, 2004
Edwards Bounce Deflates In Home State

USA Today reports (via Drudge) that John Edwards has actually damaged John Kerry's standing in Edwards' home state of North Carolina, negating one of the supposed advantages of selecting the single-term Senator as his running mate.

Among likely voters in the poll, Bush/Cheney outpaces Kerry/Edwards 56-41, and even among registered voters the President outpaces Kerry by seven points. USA Today does not provide any historical context for these standings, as Edwards wasn't on the ticket until last week. However, if you check out question 4B ("Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following people?"), you see where Kerry has dropped significantly in the last two weeks:

Date............Fav.Unfav..Unk..No Op
2004 Jul 9-11....49....43....2....6
2004 Jun 21-23..58....35....2....5

Kerry has lost nine points off of his positives and gained eight points on his negatives in two weeks where he has blitzed the area with campaign advertising. The only significant changes during that time have been the transfer of sovereignty to Iraq and picking Edwards as his running mate. Edwards' positives run at 63%, but all that means is that people like him; they may like him better as a retiring Senator than as the man one heartbeat away from the Presidency.

George Bush, meanwhile, has surged in Edwards country:

Date.............Fav.Unfav..No Op
2004 Jul 9-11.....55..40.....5
2004 Jun 21-23...53..45.....2

Bush has made a slight gain in positives, but has driven his negatives down significantly. If Kerry and his advisors expected some help from Edwards in the South, it won't emanate from his home state. It appears the Kerry/Edwards ticket is a dog that won't hunt down there.

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Posted by Ed Morrissey at July 13, 2004 11:31 AM

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