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August 27, 2004
Bush Overtaking Kerry In Key Battleground States: LA Times

The Los Angeles Times' Ron Brownstein reported yesterday on the state results from the Times' poll, whose national results showed George Bush ahead for the first time in their polling. Three key battleground state that both candidates have campaigned hard to win now have moved towards Bush, with the convention right around the corner:

According to the surveys, Bush has opened leads within the margin of error in Ohio, Wisconsin and Missouri states at the top of both campaigns' priority lists.

In Missouri, Bush leads among registered voters 46% to 44%; in Wisconsin, he leads 48% to 44%; and in Ohio, the president holds a 49% to 44% advantage, the surveys found. ...

In 2000, Al Gore carried Wisconsin by fewer than 6,000 votes; Bush won Missouri by almost 80,000 votes and Ohio by almost 167,000 votes.

All three states have attracted enormous spending on television ads from the two candidates and the independent groups supporting them.

Times polls in June showed Kerry and Bush tied in Wisconsin, Kerry holding a statistically insignificant one-point advantage in Ohio, and the president leading 48% to 42% in Missouri. Compared to those numbers, the race has tightened somewhat in Missouri and edged slightly toward Bush in Wisconsin and Ohio.

Bear in mind that these results come from the LA Times, which routinely oversamples Democrats in its polling. If the Times says that a Republican has edged ahead, you can bet that Kerry's internal polling shows something significantly worse. One fact is certain: Kerry cannot afford to lose Wisconsin. He has to hang on to every Gore state and make at least one pickup in order to beat Bush. It looks like all of Kerry's post-convention momentum, though, has been backwards.

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Posted by Ed Morrissey at August 27, 2004 6:13 AM

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