Captain's Quarters Blog

« CNN: Bush Can Claim Over 300 Electoral Votes | Main | Bush Visits Outbound Guard Soldiers »

September 24, 2004
AP Poll Shows Bush Lead At 7

The AP released the results of its AP/Ipsos poll and they match up with most other polling this month, to John Kerry's chagrin. George Bush has a seven-point lead, 52-45, over John Kerry in a three-way race:

President Bush solidified his advantage among men during the last month and holds his highest ratings since January on job performance, the economy and Iraq, according to an Associated Press poll. ...

Since the Republican convention, Bush's job approval is up, 54 percent among likely voters, and just over half of them approve of his handling of the economy and Iraq. His approval in all three areas is as high as it's been all year in the polling conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs.

Lest the AP impress us too much with its objectivity, it inserts this questionable statement in the third paragraph:

"We took a lead after our convention and the lead has held," said Matthew Dowd, a senior Bush campaign strategist. Bush has a slight lead in some polls, and is running even in others.

Really? Over the past two weeks, here are the results of all major polling, all but one showing a Bush lead, and half of those outside the margin of error. The latest Gallup poll -- I assume that the AP has heard of Gallup -- showed Bush up by 14 with likely voters. Their own poll shows Bush up by seven, hardly a "slight" lead.

Other than the elevated approval rating for Bush, which puts him firmly in re-elect territory, the only other internals that the AP reports in this article are on gender breakdowns. These data confirm the problem that Kerry faces: women aren't breaking for the Democrats. Bush and Kerry evenly split the women's vote, while Bush leads among men by a whopping seventeen points. In 2000, Gore carried the women's vote by 11 points and just barely edged Bush in the popular vote. Kerry cannot win with a split.

The AP reported internals in a separate release, and these again look bad for Kerry. Bush's approval ratings on a range of issues have improved at or past the 50% mark, including the economy (53%), domestic issues (50%), foreign policy and the war on terror (55%), and Iraq (51%). One interesting artifact: Bush's lead actually grows with registered voters, traditionally a kinder measure for Democrats, where his lead goes to 9 points (51-42). And in an indication of the damage Kerry's candidacy might be doing to Democrats nationwide, Republicans held a three-point lead in the Congressional vote poll.

Kerry is six weeks out from an electoral disaster, and the news keeps getting worse for him each day.

Sphere It Digg! View blog reactions
Posted by Ed Morrissey at September 24, 2004 5:27 AM

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry is

Design & Skinning by:
m2 web studios

blog advertising


Proud Ex-Pat Member of the Bear Flag League!