September 10, 2005

Egyptians Send No-Confidence Message To Mubarak

In its first multiparty elections, Egypt hoped to secure international legitimacy for the continued reign of Hosni Mubarak, who up to now had never had to campaign for office against any opposition. Mubarak earlier had abruptly ordered an amendment to the Constitution requiring that other parties have access to the ballot, a recognition that democratization in the region will prove ultimately triumphant. Mubarak hoped to ride that wave while working quietly to set the process up to guarantee the endorsement of the electorate.

It's safe to say that he failed in almost every respect. Not only did his banning of international observers make it clear to the world that he had no intention of running a clean and fair election, the remarkably low turnout has left Mubarak with no standing for a mandate at all:

Less than a fifth of the electorate voted for the incumbent Hosni Mubarak in Egypt's presidential poll, curtailing the veteran leader's legitimacy as he kicks off his last mandate.

According to the official results of Egypt's first contested presidential election announced by the electoral commission on Friday, Mubarak mustered a whopping 88.5 percent of the vote.

But in the same way that his score exceded most expectations, the turnout rate of 23 percent was lower than predicted by many observers.

And that 23% is the official results of the election, as calculated by the Mubarak regime. Other independent observers operating outside of the reach of Mubarak's election commission put the turnout closer to 18%. That stunningly low turnout demonstrates the lack of confidence in the election and the electoral process under Mubarak. Given the restrictive nature of voter qualifications, it may wind up that less than 10% of the population of Egypt voted in this election.

That gives Mubarak the political support of ... 8.5%. It hardly provides the mandate Mubarak wanted to show to the world in legitimizing his last term of office. Instead, it will increase demands for a clean election, freedom of political speech, and access for international observers to ensure that the vote isn't rigged. As Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yanukovych discovered in Ukraine, rigging elections can have worse repercussions than not holding them at all.

Egyptians rightly deduced that they could not vote Mubarak out of office. They did the next best thing: they humiliated him and made his office meaningless.

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