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December 26, 2005
At The Break, It's All Tied Up

In my rush to wrap up before the Christmas break, I missed the last Ipsos/CanWest polling on the Canadian elections -- one which appears to dispute a number of other media polling done in the last few weeks. Ipsos reports that the national numbers have the Conservatives trailing the Liberals by a single point (33-32). Even in the Liberal stronghold of Ontario, the Tories have remained within two points of the Grits, 40-38:

After a week following the debates, the survey shows that if a federal election were held tomorrow, 33% of voters would cast their ballot in support of the Liberals (-3 points), 32% would support the Conservatives (+5 points), 16% would support the NDP (-1 point) and 5% would support the Green Party (unchanged).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (54%, -2 points) have a 30-point lead over the Liberals (24%, -1 point).

Further, as it would appear that the federal vote race in Ontario has tightened (40% Liberals vs. 38% Conservatives), if a vote were held tomorrow, a Conservative led minority government would be the probable outcome.

The Liberals have what Ipsos refers to as "negative momentum", while the Tories have a slight positive momentum. Canadian voters have also decided that Stephen Harper and the Tories have improved significantly more than Paul Martin and the Liberals -- 31-18 nationally, but more ominously for the Liberals, 35-18 in Ontario. It spells disaster for the current Prime Minister. If he cannot hold a significant majority of seats in Ontario, then he will lose the entire election. Expect the Liberals to unleash heavy negative advertising starting as early as today in order to blunt the momentum that Harper has picked up in Ontario.

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Posted by Ed Morrissey at December 26, 2005 9:08 AM

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