Matthew Dowd, the RNC senior strategist who has proven himself prescient on campaigns and issues in the past, has told GOP leadership that rank-and-file Republicans overwhelmingly support comprehensive immigration reform, combining border security with normalization for existing illegals already inside the US. National Journal's Hotline reports that Dowd has reviewed the results of a number of media polls, and concluded that the Senate's CIRA will not only get support from Republican voters but also bring Hispanics to the party:

RNC senior adviser/BC04 senior strategist/Ron Fournier co-author Matthew Dowd urges Republican Nat'l Committee members to favor a "comprehensive" solution to immigration, which the public believes is is "unifying -- not polarizing." ...

Dowd's memo says that an internal RNC poll conducted by Jan Van Louhuzen finds that "pverwhelming support exists for a temporary worker program. 80% of all voters, 83% of Republicans, and 79% of self-identified conservatives support a temporary worker program as long as immigrants pay taxes and obey the law."

More, from the RNC internal poll: "When voters are given the choice of other immigration proposals, strengthening enforcement with a tamper-proof identity card (89% among all voters, 93% among GOP), various wordings of a temporary worker program (the highest at 85% among all voters, 86% among GOP), and sending National Guard troops to the border (63% among all voters, 84% among GOP) score the highest among both all voters and Republican voters."

Also: "Voters don't consider granting legal status to those already here amnesty."

Dowd concludes: "Finally, when discussing immigration reform, tone and language are extremely important. To continue to grow the party, we must conduct this debate with civility and respect for our nation's heritage -- as the President has said, we are both a nation of laws and a nation of immigrants. That is why the American people favor a balanced plan that secures the border, improves enforcement, enhances immigration avenues AND deals compassionately and equitably with those who are already here."

That may explain the votes cast by Senate Republicans, including conservative stalwarts Larry Craig (ID) and Mitch McConnell (KY). It certainly flies in the face of traditional conservative policy, and it contradicts what many conservative voices have argued over the last several weeks.

Most of all, Dowd warns against doing nothing. American voters, he says, already sees illegal immigration as a problem ignored for too long by succeeding administrations and Congresses, especially one would think after 9/11. Support for any kind of reform package beats deliberate inaction, according to media and internal polling, and the vast majority want to see some kind of normalization.

Make sure to read Dowd's memo in full. I won't say Dowd has a perfect political ear, but he's very good at what he does. He was a key member of the Bush re-election team and won plenty of respect for his clear-eyed analytical work. The policy implications may surprise, and it tends to support the notion that the GOP leadership may be listening to their base on this issue.

UPDATE: Oops -- added the link!

UPDATE II: Let me emphasize that Dowd worked from more than one internal poll to derive this analysis. He included several media polls as well as his own internal poll to reach his conclusions. I will grant that popularity does not equal truth, and that principles have value beyond beauty contests. However, I also challenge people to consider their assertions that the GOP has stopped listening to its constituents in this matter, which has been the main complaint of those opposed to any kind of normalization for illegals. At least that has been the justification used for leaving the party over this issue in particular.

Dafydd at Big Lizards has more to say about Dowd's work.

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» Matthew Dowd: Americans, Republicans, Conservatives Support Comprehensive Immigration Reform from Big Lizards
Matthew Dowd, GOP poller extraordinaire, writes that the ultra-hardline conservatives who insist that the American people demand "enforcement only" and hate the "amnesty" of the Senate bill have it exactly backwards. In fact: Dowd's memo says that an i... [Read More]

Tracked on May 27, 2006 8:32 AM

» But, What about the FENCE??? from pekin prattles
....Am I the only one who notices the quite deft management of the "multiple" polls by RNC Strategist Dowd to provide fodder to project GWB as a winner in the eyes of the public....all the while ignoring ANY mention of the FENCE! [Read More]

Tracked on May 27, 2006 9:45 AM

» But, What about the FENCE??? from pekin prattles
....Am I the only one who notices the quite deft management of the "multiple" polls by RNC Strategist Dowd to provide fodder to project GWB as a winner in the eyes of the public....all the while ignoring ANY mention of the FENCE! [Read More]

Tracked on May 27, 2006 9:45 AM

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