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January 30, 2007
With Just A Year To Go ...

Is it too early for polling in the Presidential race? You bet it is. Does that stop anyone from quoting the polls? Absolutely not. So, just for fun and not for serious consideration, take a look at this New Hampshire poll from Boston's CBS television affiliate, via Rich Lowry at The Corner:

Sen. Clinton is the choice of 40 percent, followed by Sen. Barack Obama with 25 percent, and 2004 vice-presidential nominee John Edwards at 23 percent. Only nine percent preferred someone else.

That's a strong showing for Obama, a newcomer to a state where Clinton and Edwards have campaigned for years. But the numbers could be a nightmare for him too. ...

Our survey of Republicans shows former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani in a virtual tie with Sen. John McCain, 33 to 32 percent, with former governor Mitt Romney up sharply over recent polling at 21 percent.

For Romney, it's an early sign that his strategy of courting the right on social issues is paying off among GOP conservatives. And it leaves Giuliani and McCain facing the same fate as Edwards and Obama - they split the moderates, and Romney runs right through the hole they create.

In the Granite State, at least, it seems that the Democratic field has narrowed considerably. If Al Gore had been thinking about a return to Presidential politics, he might have missed his chance. Earlier this month, Rasmussen had him beating Mitt Romney in a general election. Good thing we're not having it this month, then.

The Republican race appears more fluid. The top three eat up 86% of respondents, but that won't hold if a big name drops into the race, such as Newt Gingrich. He may not immediately pull 30 points, but he would more than likely pull everyone else into the 20s or lower.

Rasmussen's matchups show some interesting figures. They polled all of the major and minor presumed candidates against each other, and the one Republican who wins against them all is Rudy Giuliani. Romney loses to Obama by 13 points and Hillary by eight; he even loses to Tom Vilsack, although neither of them garner 40% in the poll. Romney still has a lot of time to define himself, of course, but that can't be said of John McCain. He has been in front of a few cameras over the last few years as the leading GOP maverick, at least until Chuck Hagel started speaking up about Iraq. McCain edges Hillary within the margin of error, but loses to John Edwards and Barack Obama by the same margin. Giuliani, on the other hand, beats everyone -- Hillary, Gore, Edwards, and especially Obama, whom he surpasses by eleven points.

It's still way too early to take this seriously, but it's not completely worthless, either.

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Posted by Ed Morrissey at January 30, 2007 4:59 AM

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