Captain's Quarters -

Russia has staunchly defended the Iranian efforts to develop nuclear power, even when the IAEA made clear the extent of Teheran's evasions and prevarications in the early stages of the program. They sold the mullahs a turnkey nuclear power plant, unmindful of how the Iranians could use the spent fuel for weapons development. Moscow tried its best to slow down the imposition of a Western-backed sanctions regime at the UN.

All of this history makes their latest move an even more surprising and substantial repudiation of the mullahcracy:

Russia has informed Iran that it will withhold nuclear fuel for Iran’s nearly completed Bushehr power plant unless Iran suspends its uranium enrichment as demanded by the United Nations Security Council, European, American and Iranian officials said.

The ultimatum was delivered in Moscow last week by Igor Ivanov, Russia’s Security Council Secretary, to Ali Hosseini Tash, Iran’s deputy chief nuclear negotiator, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because a confidential diplomatic exchange between two governments was involved.

For years, President Bush has been pressing President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to cut off help to Iran on the nuclear reactor, which is Tehran’s first serious effort to produce nuclear energy and has been highly profitable for Russia. But Mr. Putin has resisted.

Recently, however, Moscow and Tehran have been engaged in a public argument about whether Iran has paid its bills, in a dispute that may explain Russia’s apparent shift. The ultimatum may also reflect Moscow’s increasing displeasure and frustration with Iran over its refusal to stop enriching uranium at its vast facility at Natanz.

“We’re not sure what mix of commercial and political motives are at play here,” one senior Bush administration official said in Washington. “But clearly the Russians and the Iranians are getting on each other’s nerves — and that’s not all bad.”

Something tells me that Putin's motivation comes from something other than a collections-agency status on the bill. He sank a lot of Russia's international influence into kowtowing to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Putin's Great Game aspirations of late seem more important than an unpaid bill or two. He bought real influence in Teheran, or so he thought, with the Bushehr plant.

Some calculations have changed in Moscow. Putin had been almost the only substantive foreign support for Ahmadinejad, besides China, which needs Iranian oil. Some other pressure point must have been hit by the West. Perhaps someone mentioned Russia's G-8 status, or maybe other commercial issues got worked in Putin's favor. What is obvious is that Ahmadinejad placed all his eggs in the Russian nuclear basket, and for the moment he has come up empty.

Its apparent cancellation puts Ahmadinejad in a tough spot. He sold the nuclear-power plant as a major victory against Western opposition, especially the Great Satan itself, the US. He even put a nuclear symbol on the latest currency note to brag about Iran's ascension to the top tier of nations -- at least in the category of offensive weaponry. Now Russia and Putin have pulled the rug out from underneath him, and the entire Iranian nation will witness the pratfall.

What happens if Ahmadinejad cannot deliver nuclear power? He has forced Iranians to suffer through economic sanctions that multiplied economic problems Ahmadinejad created on his own. If the entire reason for their suffering produces nothing but Russian IOUs, he will lose what little political support he has, perhaps even with the mullahs themselves. They may jettison him rather than face the angry mobs of Iranians that will form when they realize they've been had.