Captain's Quarters -

Geldof: The Unexpected Bush

Bob Geldof pens an unusual article for Time Magazine today, extolling the intellect and virtues of President George Bush. He starts off by noting -- as have we conservatives since early in the administration -- that Bush has no talent for marketing. Geldof instead assigns himself that task and reminds people that Bush may be the most significant President in modern times for the lives he has saved:

The Most Powerful Man in the World studied the front cover. Geldof in Africa — " 'The international best seller.' You write that bit yourself?"

"That's right. It's called marketing. Something you obviously have no clue about or else I wouldn't have to be here telling people your Africa story."

It is some story. And I have always wondered why it was never told properly to the American people, who were paying for it. It was, for example, Bush who initiated the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) with cross-party support led by Senators John Kerry and Bill Frist. In 2003, only 50,000 Africans were on HIV antiretroviral drugs — and they had to pay for their own medicine. Today, 1.3 million are receiving medicines free of charge. The U.S. also contributes one-third of the money for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria — which treats another 1.5 million. It contributes 50% of all food aid (though some critics find the mechanism of contribution controversial). On a seven-day trip through Africa, Bush announced a fantastic new $350 million fund for other neglected tropical diseases that can be easily eradicated; a program to distribute 5.2 million mosquito nets to Tanzanian kids; and contracts worth around $1.2 billion in Tanzania and Ghana from the Millennium Challenge Account, another initiative of the Bush Administration.

So why doesn't America know about this? "I tried to tell them. But the press weren't much interested," says Bush. It's half true. There are always a couple of lines in the State of the Union, but not enough so that anyone noticed, and the press really isn't interested. For them, like America itself, Africa is a continent of which little is known save the odd horror.

Geldof doesn't pull punches where he disagrees with Bush. In fact, he spends most of the article outlining his disagreements. However, he also paints a picture of a man of intellect and deep belief, and one who has been shortchanged by the media, at least on Africa. He also understands that while he disagrees with Bush on many policies, Bush is motivated by his own sense of what is right.

The Anchoress notes:

But I do like that he gives the president serious credit not just for his humanitarian aid to Africa, but for his smarts in general. The press narrative since 1999, has been that Bush is “incurious and slow.” Geldof writes precisely the opposite, noting after a discussion of Africa and trade tariffs, “he’s curious and quick.”

And while in not engaging the president on is a bit unfair because does not allow rebuttal to Geldof’s own meme’d musings, the Irish rocker does allow Bush to make his case as to the steadiness of his interest in Africa, going back to his debates w/ Gore.

This does not surprise me much. I have had the pleasure of participating in two round-table conference calls with Geldof, and he surprised me with his openness to all points of view. Like Bush, he has grown a thick skin through years of political combat. His last project, a series of concerts intended to produce pressure on the G-8 nations to forgive African debt and pledge more assistance, drew a lot of naysayers -- and Geldof almost seemed to relish engagement with them, in order to change minds.

In some ways, Geldof appears to recognize a bit of that in Bush, and has a difficult time not liking it.

A Way Out For Kenya?

After a week of rioting and murder, Kenya's Mwai Kibaki has apparently decided that his re-election cannot stand any longer. He has suddenly offered a power-sharing arrangement with his opposition, Rail Odinga, following charges of genocide on both sides over the violence that has wracked this East African nation. No one knows exactly what Kibaki has in mind, but the step comes after the US intervened with Kibaki:

Kenya's president is ready to form "a government of national unity" to help resolve disputed elections that caused deadly riots, a government statement said Saturday without explaining what such a power-sharing arrangement might involve.

President Mwai Kibaki made the statement to Jendayi Frazer, the leading U.S. diplomatic for Africa, according to the director of the presidential news service, Isaiya Kabira.

Kabira said he could not say whether that was a formal offer to opposition leader Raila Odinga, who accuses Kibaki of stealing the Dec. 27 elections that international observers say had a deeply flawed vote count.

The conflict in Kenya went beyond just the disputed election. It opened up fractures in Kenya's social system between its various tribes, as the Luo and Kikuyu began a series of tit-for-tat attacks in support of Odinga and Kibaki. The beleaguered president tried to cast the civil and tribal conflict as a genocide, but no one bought into that convenient accusation.

Ambassador Frazer's intercession appears to have made clear that the world would not recognize Kibaki's re-election. Earlier, Kibaki had insisted that he would only order new elections if Kenya's Supreme Court ordered it, but the panel consists mainly of Kibaki allies and would not likely overturn his election. Instead, after meeting with Frazer, Kibaki abruptly reversed himself, indicating that the US had a strong and rather unpleasant message for Kibaki.

Frazer may have saved hundreds of lives in the short run with this successful diplomatic intervention. Kenya needs an honest election and a return to the rule of law, rather than political lawlessness. Kibaki's offer provides his nation a step in the right direction; let's hope it succeeds.

Tribal Warfare In Kenya?

Kenya has erupted in violence after a suspicious election process kept president Mwai Kibaki in power, but that political unrest may have turned to tribal warfare. Thirty people died in a church in a fire, reminiscent of a well-known Nazi atrocity in France, and over 200 more have died in fighting since an election rejected by European and American observers as flawed. The Luo tribe, to which opposition leader Raila Odinga belongs, appears to be targeting the Kikuyus of Kibaki:

The tribe of the church victims in the western town of Eldoret is not immediately clear, but the Kikuyus of Mr Kibaki have been the main targets of the violence so far.

The Kikuyus are the largest tribe in Kenya, and Mr Odinga belongs to the second-largest Luo tribe.

"Supporters of Raila Odinga are involved in ethnic cleansing," a government spokesman said. Members of Mr Odinga's party have made similar charges against the president. ...

Kikuyus are fleeing from towns west of the capital, Nairobi, trying to take refuge in police stations or escaping into neighbouring Uganda.

Gangs wielding machetes again manned road-blocks on some roads, searching for Kikuyus.

The Kibaki government has an interest in having this cast as a tribal war. If he can sell this as an attempted genocide by the Luo, then he can sidestep Western criticism over the rigged election and put the blame on the Luo for the unrest. After Rwanda and Darfur, Europeans and Americans have a great deal of sensitivity towards accusations of ethnic cleansing, and the Telegraph report helps build a case for Kibaki.

It could be a blend of both, of course. The Kikuyus form the power base for Kibaki, as they comprise the largest tribal bloc in Kenya's population at 22%. The Luo come in third at 13%. Politics and tribal affiliation blend there as they do in many African (and Arab) nations, and tribal affiliation has more resonance than shifting political movements do. If Kibaki has attempted to hijack the Kenyan elections to grab power, it could be seen as a Kikuyu move to retain primacy over other tribes in Kenya.

Odinga holds the majority of Parliament, and can make life very difficult for Kibaki. Odinga refused an entreaty from Gordon Brown to enter into negotiations with Kibaki, demanding that Kibaki first step down from the presidency and allow international monitors to recount the ballots independently. Kibaki refuses, and has barred the Orange Democratic Movement from holding any assemblies or demonstrations. Odinga plans to hold one anyway and predicts that a million people will join him in the streets, a situation that will almost certainly end in violence.

That won't be tribal warfare but a real political opposition to a corrupt government. Kibaki cannot afford to have that happen, and he may cry "genocide" to gain Western support for his rickety grip on power.

Where Are The Damn Monkey Pictures?

Apparently, America has a strong export capability in political analysis, even in analysts with a track record of scandal. A Kenyan presidential candidate hired Dick Morris to help win the election, even though Morris has no history in Kenyan politics, and traveled to the country on a tourist visa. No problem, says his new boss -- Morris works for free:

Political consultant Dick Morris, who rose to prominence as a key adviser for President Bill Clinton and then fell from grace after a scandal involving a prostitute, has surfaced as a political consultant in an unlikely place -- Kenya.

Leading presidential candidate Raila Odinga has brought Morris on as a consultant to help him beat incumbent President Mwai Kibaki in next month's elections. Last week Morris arrived in Kenya on a tourist visa and held a press conference saying he believed Odinga was poised to win the election.

"I think the reason is he has a clear reputation for courage and for integrity and for change," Morris said. "I am delighted to be here in Kenya and to help you get rid of the corrupt government."

But news of Morris' own scandals soon spread throughout Kenyan media. Letters to the editor and op-ed articles have severely criticized Odinga's choice of consultant. One op-ed in Kenya's The Nation newspaper laid out Morris' past indiscretions, including his affair and leaking of sensitive information to a prostitute, and that the Connecticut Department of Revenue Services has Morris as one of the top 10 tax evaders in the state. As of Oct. 1, 2007 he still owed almost $300,000 in back taxes.

Yes, that doesn't exactly build credibility for a reformist candidate. Odinga may not have known much about Morris, but then again, he didn't have to pay much, either. At least, that's the story to which his campaign has steadfastly clung since the revelation that Morris arrived on a tourist visa, in apparent violation of immigration law.

The government -- the one Morris accused of corruption within hours of his arrival -- has a different interpretation. It takes far longer to get a work visa than a tourist visa, and the election is in less than six weeks, and the government sees this as a dodge. Dr. Alfred Matua, the government's spokesperson, says that Morris broke the law and will be subject to arrest, prosecution, and deportation if he enters Kenya again in a similar manner. Morris needs to apply for the appropriate work permit, or confine his activities to tourism ... such as "taking pictures of monkeys".

Taking pictures of monkeys? That sounds almost as much fun as wrestling with pigs, which any American political analyst can do easily enough here at home. If Morris wants to return to Kenya, though, he'd better start taking some snapshots of the primate life and spend less time on electioneering.

Zimbabwe: Reform Or Ruse?

Zimbabwe's opposition party has reached agreement with Robert Mugabe's organization to achieve some political reform in time for the next election. Mugabe has given up his ability to directly appoint one-quarter of the legislature, a key prop to maintaining a majority and controlling the body. However, the reforms will only improve the chances for the opposition if the election is clean:

Zimbabwe's opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change, yesterday struck a deal with Robert Mugabe to change the country's electoral laws.

The rule change abolishes President Mugabe's right to appoint 30 MPs, removing a major hurd