Now Annan Wakes Up

Kofi Annan wants Israel to stop its Gaza incursion and turn the power back on for their enemies to regroup:

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has demanded that Israel take urgent action to prevent a humanitarian disaster in the Gaza Strip. ...

Mr Annan called on Israel to restore supplies of food and fuel and to repair a power plant hit in an air strike. ...

Mr Annan urged Israel to lift restrictions on the movement of basic goods such as foodstuffs into Gaza.

So Kofi now wants the Israelis to stop everything because the Palestinians attacked them? How about Kofi asking the Palestinians to quit shooting rockets into Sderot and hand back Gilad Shalit?

Oh, I forgot -- this is the UN.

Will Stone Screw Up 9/11?

When Oliver Stone first announced that he would make a film about the events of 9/11, many expressed concern and even outrage over the prospect. Stone has made a habit of both politicizing his movies and increasingly relying on strange cinematographic effects to distract from the subject matter. Any Given Sunday probably provides the best example in his later work of the latter criticism; my IMDB review can be read here. The Observer reports that Stone finds himself the center of criticism once again -- but for reasons that have nothing to do with politics or competence:

Despite Stone's insistence that his days of deliberate provocation are behind him, World Trade Center, which opens in US cinemas next month and in the UK on 29 September, has divided the public, critics and academics ahead of its release.

The film, which stars Nicolas Cage as John McLoughlin, one of two New York Port Authority police officers caught up in 9/11, has been attacked in a way that Stone's fellow director Paul Greengrass managed to avoid in his portrayal of circumstances on the doomed Flight 93, one of the planes hijacked on 11 September that crashed near Shanksville, Pennsylvania. Greengrass's film, United 93, stunned British audiences this year with its documentary style, as if much of it had been filmed in real time. ...

The widows of two Port Authority Police officers who were killed on 11 September have decried Jimeno and McLoughlin, who acted as close advisers to Stone's film, and earned at least $200,000 each for their services. Jeanette Pezzulo, who lives in the Bronx, told the Seattle Times that Jimeno's decision to make the film was hurtful because her husband, Port Authority police officer Dominick Pezzulo, died while trying to free Jimeno and McLoughlin. She said: 'My thing is: this man died for you. How do you do this to this family?'

Her sentiments were echoed by Jamie Amoroso from Staten Island, whose husband also died in the rescue operation. She said: 'I do not need a movie to tell me what a hero my husband was.'

Baltimore detective Ken Nacke, whose brother Louis died on Flight 93, said he would not be going to see the film. He criticised its producers for not involving enough of the survivors' families in its production, something he said did not happen with Greengrass. He added: 'I met a couple of people who lost relatives and had approached the producers and weren't allowed to be involved, and I think it would be disrespectful to them if I went to see it.'

To be honest, I was not looking forward to this movie, given Stone's history of distorting truth to score cheap political points. He did that in Nixon and JFK, and I have no stomach to see another Stone exploitation job. I'm not sure that's what's happening here, though. While it seems a bit strange to focus on a story on the fringes of the historical events of the day when so few efforts have been made to tell the main story, it doesn't mean that the tale of Jimeno and McLoughlin won't have emotional impact and make a good film. In a way, I'd prefer that Stone focus on that than attempt to tell the macro story -- because that carries less risk of mischief in Stone's normal manner of filmmaking. Not every film on 9/11 has to be comprehensive in scope, and even United 93 focused on one part of the day.

One aspect of the film I found disturbing from the Observer story was the lack of the footage of the aftermath of the attack. To me, that smacks of a passive attempt to water down the human cost of the attack. Networks still embargo the shots of people jumping or falling from the Twin Towers, ostensibly out of respect for the victims but more likely to allow Americans to emotionally disengage from the horror of the consequences of the most successful attack on our soil. United 93 chose a different path; it did not shy away from showing the humanity of the people caught on the plane, and the final scene showed the spiraling approach of the Pennsylvania countryside in a manner that brought back all of the horror we felt when we heard what happened on that flight.

Still, it seems to me that the criticisms of Stone in the Observer piece seem a little overblown. Two of the 9/11 widows have an understandable frustration about the focus of the two survivors while their dead husbands -- who died trying to save Jimeno and McLoughlin -- apparently get short shrift from the script. Stone should have done more to include their stories, if the final film does not show it. However, paying Jimeno and McLoughlin $200K as technical consultants hardly qualifies as "cashing in". These films take at least a couple of years to produce, and as the producer notes, that's not much in terms of a wage for the demands on their time. Studios routinely pay much more than that just to get the rights for a story.

If these are the worst criticisms that Stone gets for his new film, it would be a huge improvement on his more political projects. We can wait to see what Stone has created before we start attacking it. Perhaps, though, Hollywood will finally see fit to tell the macro story of 9/11 honestly and in full, even if Stone preferred to avoid it.

Bush Tries Economic Leverage With Putin

George Bush has decided to create the necessary economic leverage to generate international consensus on Iran. The White House has concluded a deal on nuclear power for Russia predicated on Russian commitments to remain firm on Iran's nuclear ambitions:

President Bush will pursue a nuclear cooperation agreement when he meets Russian leader Vladimir Putin next week during a summit of industrialized nations in St. Petersburg, the White House said Saturday.

But any agreement would be conditioned on Russia helping to pressure Iran to give up its alleged desire to develop nuclear weapons, said Frederick Jones, spokesman for Bush's National Security Council.

"We have made clear to the Russians that for an agreement on peaceful nuclear cooperation to go forward, we will need Russia's active cooperation in blocking Iran's attempt to obtain nuclear weapons," Jones said.

This issue has percolated between Washington and Moscow since the 1990s, when the Clinton administration refused to negotiate -- rightly -- while Moscow built Iran's nuclear capability. Back then, experts considered an Iranian nuke to be more than a decade away, and the US decided that a unilateral approach to Iranian nuclear ambitions suited our purposes. Now that the Iranians have apparently mastered the enrichment cycle, they appear much closer to a nuke.

With time running out, we need to get Iran's nuclear sponsors to stop their assistance to the mullahs. That means we have to exercise some leverage on Moscow. We could make it difficult for them at the G-8 as a "stick" approach, but that really only amounts to a one-time disincentive. The US has to provide some rational incentives for Russian cooperation. Providing them a more stable source of energy to replace the oil that Iran could provide makes sense, especially since Russia already can build its own nuclear-power plants.

The US wants to ensure a safer record for nuclear power in order to convince people of its value in reducing the reliance on Persian Gulf oil resources. Russia, which has continued to build plants even after the Chernobyl disaster, needs the US imprimatur to make deals with developing countries to sell their designs. The real value isn't in US technology, but in US approval of Russian exports. The US will likely insist on safer designs, and the Russians can then sell the best designs for reactors which will not produce weapons-grade fissile material. The US will indirectly then reduce the reliance on Middle East oil, dropping prices as well as Arab influence on world events.

Can we trust Putin? I doubt Putin really wants to see a nuclearized Southwest Asia, but Russia needs hard cash and has little else to offer these days. If we take the chains off and allow Russia to sell safe nuclear power to Third World countries for their economic development, we may kill a number of birds with one stone -- and have additional leverage with which to shut down the mullahcracy's attempt to develop the bomb.

Kudlow Overplays A Winning Hand

Larry Kudlow takes issue with the media for underreporting and distorting the Bush administration's record on the economy in his Townhall column today. Kudlow has an excellent point, as media outleys have all but ignored the Bush economic engine and the tax cuts that fuelled it. Unfortunately, Kudlow distorts it himself in an attempt to gild the lily:

Did you know that just over the past 11 quarters, dating back to the June 2003 Bush tax cuts, America has increased the size of its entire economy by 20 percent? In less than three years, the U.S. economic pie has expanded by $2.2 trillion, an output add-on that is roughly the same size as the total Chinese economy, and much larger than the total economic size of nations like India, Mexico, Ireland and Belgium.

This is an extraordinary fact, although you may be reading it here first. Most in the mainstream media would rather tout the faults of American capitalism than sing its praises. And of course, the media will almost always discuss supply-side tax cuts in negative terms, such as big budget deficits and static revenue losses. But here's another suppressed fact: Since the 2003 tax cuts, tax-revenue collections from the expanding economy have been surging at double-digit rates, while the deficit is constantly being revised downward.

For those who bother to look, the economic power of lower-tax-rate incentives is once again working its magic. While most reporters obsess about a mild slowdown in housing, the big-bang story is a high-sizzle pick-up in private business investment, which is directly traceable to Bush's tax reform. It was private investment that was hardest hit in the early decade stock market plunge and the aftermath of the 9-11 terrorist bombings. So team Bush's wise men correctly targeted investment in order to slash the after-tax cost of capital and rejuvenate investment incentives.

The move paid off. Investors now keep nearly 50 percent more of their after-tax capital returns -- an enormous increase that has resulted in a remarkably profitable and highly productive business sector. While the overall economy has grown by one-fifth since mid-2003, private business investment has expanded by 37 percent.

Much of what Kudlow says here is true, but the specific numbers he uses are suspect. As Instapundit and his readers point out in a post this morning, Kudlow uses actual dollars rather than figures adjusted for inflation. The uncorrected projected GDP for 2006 based on Q1 numbers is $13.042 trillion, while the projected GDP for 2003Q2 was $10.844 trillion. The difference comes to slightly less than $2.2 trillion, which indeed gives a 20% growth rate -- with inflation.

However, most economists use figures adjusted for inflation based on a specific value year; the BEA, where Kudlow got his numbers, uses 2000 as a basis year for adjustment. Those numbers still tell a compelling story, but not as dramatic as Kudlow's figures represent. In adjusted dollars, 2006Q1 projected GDP came in at $11.403T against 2003Q2 projected GDP of $10.230T, leading to a growth rate of 11.4%.

The reliance on nonstandard calculation detracts from an already strong argument -- Kudlow does not do any great service to Bush with this decision. The numbers, adjusted for inflation, are already compelling. The eleven-quarter period that Kudlow highlights ranks well in the last quarter-century. The Clinton administration had a run of such periods, starting in 1998Q1 through 2000Q3 (with each quarter showing this type of growth). Reagan had a similar run, between 1984Q3 and 1986Q3.

As King Banaian pointed out during our radio show, however, the Bush administration's run has some remarkable differences. First, neither Clinton nor Reagan had a shooting war going on during these periods, allowing for more stable economic environments. Second, oil prices dropped during these periods for Clinton and Reagan, while they have increased considerably during the Bush expansion. Yet the Bush expansion, fuelled by the tax cuts, has shown remarkable stability and consistency. In the past eleven quarters, the only one below an annual rate of growth of 3% was 2005Q4, which reflected the economic impact of Hurricane Katrina. Also, we should recall that the Clinton era coincides with the dot-com bubble and the bulk of the investor frauds of Enron, Global Crossings, and Worldcom.

In fact, in Bush's entire tenure in office, he has only had one quarter of economic loss where he was president for the entire quarter -- and that was 2001Q3, when he ordered the entire airline industry grounded as a result of 9/11, as well as the devastating losses in Manhattan in both lives and property. Even then, the loss was kept to an annual projected rate of -1.4%. (Clinton only had one as well, in 2000Q3, and the two share another, 2001Q1.)

As to the claim that the American economy grew more than the entire Chinese economy, that also requires a bit of sleight-of-hand to believe. First, again we have to accept the unadjusted numbers from Kudlow rather than the adjusted numbers economists normally use. Second, we have to accept the Chinese GDP at their exchange rate -- which the US continually protests as set artificially low as a barrier to American products. The CIA factbook on China shows the GDP at their exchange rate as $2.25T, slighly more than the gap for the unadjusted American GDP increase. However, the purchasing power parity GDP comes in at $8.86T, more than three times the official GDP and much larger than our GDP increase, unadjusted or adjusted. (We grew in real terms amost as much than the Russian economy in its entirety, though.)

The Bush economy has never been reported well by a media culture clearly biased against the White House. Kudlow is correct on that point. He should have stuck with the commonly-accepted figures rather than undermine the argument he made about mainstream media distortion.

Northern Alliance Radio Today

I will join the Northern Alliance Radio Network today via telephone, rather than in studio as normal. I still cannot sit up in a normal chair long enough to do the radio show, and Mitch and King have been gracious enough to allow me to do my part from the recliner. You can listen to the show on AM 1280 The Patriot, either on the radio if you're in the Twin Cities, or on the Internet stream if not. You can also catch the Internet stream at the new Townhall site.

We'll be discussing the terror attacks, the DocEx documents that I've reviewed the last couple of days, the Jeff Goldstein/Deb Frisch kerfuffle, and much more. Be sure to call in at 651-289-4488 to join the conversation!

UPDATE: Forgot to post the time! We're on now (1:15 PM CT) and will be on until 3 PM CT.

Attacking Bloggers' Children? Despicable (Updated)

Jeff Goldstein, who has always been a friend to CQ from its earliest days, has found himself and his family the target of some despicable threats, apparently from an academic at the University of Arizona. This series of e-mails allegedly came from Deb Frisch, a professor of psychology at Arizona with some history of on-line histrionics:

"I’d like to hear more about your “tyke” by the way. Girl? Boy? Toddler? Teen? Are you still married to the woman you ephed to give birth to the tyke?

Tell all, bro!"

***

"[...] as I said elsewhere, if I woke up tomorrow and learned that someone else had shot you and your “tyke” it wouldn’t slow me down one iota. You aren’t “human” to me."

***

" Ooh. Two year old boy. Sounds hot. You live in Colorado, I see. Hope no one Jon-Benets your baby.

Are you still married to the woman you humped to produce the toddler? "

***

Give your pathetic progeny (I sure hope that mofo got good genes from his mama!) a big fat tongue-filled kiss from me! LOTS AND LOTS OF SALIVA from Auntie MOONBAT, if you don’t mind!

Somehow, Jeffy boy, I think you get off on the possibility of Frenching your pathetic progeny, even if it is a boy. You seem like a VERY, VERY sick mofo to me, bro.

If this came from Frisch, then perhaps she would be better off the subject of psychotherapy than teaching it. In any case, regardless of whether you agree with Jeff's politics or not, we should all join in condemning this kind of attack on anyone. I'd condemn this kind of sick, perverted threat if it was aimed at anyone in the blogosphere. Nor do I think this is indicative of anyone's politics; I've had plenty of debate even with hard-Left bloggers and commenters without ever encountering anything like this. Namecalling is petty and childish, but it goes with the territory and immature people across the political spectrum engage in it. These threats have nothing to do with politics, and everything to do with intimidation, a kind of terrorism, in its way.

The Univeristy of Arizona is a fine institution -- in fact, the Admiral Emeritus is an alumnus of the school. We root for them every year when they play ASU and USC. One hopes that the adults in charge will investigate this immediately to determine whether Frisch sent these e-mails herself (they came from her university e-mail account, apparently), and if so, that they kick her out ASAP. The FBI should also investigate what Frisch intended by her reference to Jon Benet Ramsey, if she was the one who wrote it.

In the meantime, bloggers across the spectrum should denounce these threats as the sick, perverted, and unacceptable rantings they are, regardless of their author and their intended target. (via Michelle Malkin, who has other links as well.)

UPDATE: Well, this was quick -- apparently the University of Arizona doesn't mess around. The administrators started getting e-mails from Jeff's readers, and now Frisch admits to the threats and has resigned, according to her blog. In her post, titled "white flag", she blames Jeff for her woes:

Some blogs have posted comments that I perceive to be physically threatening. I have contacted the FBI and the Pajamas Media staff to determine how to proceed with this aspect of this unbelievable experience.

My intention in this post is to de-escalate the situation. The comments that started this all were nasty, not threatening. But I feel very threatened by the response.

Riiiiiiight.. She sent these disgusting messages, including a reference to a notorious child murder, and she doesn't see them as threats -- but demands for accountability for those threats have her scared. The funniest part is that she contacted the FBI, which if true, means that they will have to investigate her original messages that started the whole thing ... along with her admission. Her readers aren't fooled:

You really succeeded in making liberals look like psychopaths. Can you do the rest of us a favor, and either stop posting entirely, [or] join the Republican Party? ...

"In hindsight, the things I wrote were over the line of nastiness." Actually, in hindsight, you wrote a bunch of things that could reasonably be interpreted as physically threatening his child. That's not just "nasty"; that's against the law. The fact you can't figure this out, even with the benefit of hindsight, says a great deal about you. The fact you now wrap yourself in a cocoon of pretended victimhood says a great deal more.

I think the Wildcats just learned about addition through subtraction. Go 'Cats!

UPDATE II: The Instapundit cautions us not to assume it's Frisch, even with the blog post on her site, noting that people can still spoof identities easily enough on line. In this case, it seems like a long shot; Frisch has archives going back as long as mine. It is possible that someone hacked her site and posted this under her name, but that seems pretty farfetched. It's not impossible, however.

UPDATE III: Jeff's site is back on the air, so to speak, so we can all enjoy Protein Wisdom yet again. In reading through the comments, I notice that we are quick to blame liberals (and for some strange reason, lesbians) for this kind of behavior. Let me state once more that this has nothing to do with political points of view and everything to do with a seriously damaged sense of judgment and perhaps some emotional problems. Most liberals (and lesbians) I know are decent, well-mannered people who do not deserve to get lumped in with the Deb Frisches of the world. I give you Jeralynn Merritt for a case in point (via Allahpundit at Hot Air).

Let's remember that before we start painting with wide brushes here -- and let's refrain from attempting to guess someone's sexual preferences, especially when it has no relation to the topic.

UPDATE IV: Let's not get wild on this idea of requiring a response from everyone in the blogosphere on this story. Deb Frisch is responsible for her actions -- not Mahablog, nor any other left-wing blogger who never linked or blogrolled Frisch in the first place. The "crickets chirping" on the Left just means that they probably don't read Jeff or Deb Frisch. If we make it a requirement to comment on every blogger who crosses the line on either side of the political divide, none of us will have time for anything else.

Now, if someone uses their blog to defend her comments, then that's a basis for criticism. Otherwise, further commentary is not a requirement.

Rudy Running?

Robert Novak hears the talk around the campfire, and the chatter says that Rudy Giuliani, America's Mayor, will run for the presidency in 2008. Novak says that the road will be difficult for one of the nation's most admired men:

Well-connected public figures report that they have been told recently by Rudolph Giuliani that, as of now, he intends to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008.

The former mayor of New York was on top of last month's national Gallup poll measuring presidential preferences by registered Republicans, with 29 percent. Sen. John McCain's 24 percent was second, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich third at 8 percent. National polls all year have shown Giuliani running either first or second to McCain, with the rest of the presidential possibilities far behind.

Republican insiders respond to these numbers by saying rank-and-file GOP voters will abandon Giuliani once they realize his position on abortion, gay rights and gun control. Party strategists calculate that if he actually runs, he must change on at least one of these issues.

Rudy supports a right to abortion, gay marriage, and gun control, just in case no one could figure that out from Novak's thinly-veiled verbiage. It will make it quite difficult for Rudy to win in the primaries outside of New England, and it's doubtful that he will gain much by making a complete change on any of those positions. What's more likely to work is a philosophical explanation of his stances, followed by a pledge to work with the party to meet its goals in some type of big-tent fashion.

For instance, Giuliani could affirm that he believes a woman should have the option of an abortion if she chooses. However, he could take the position that this should not come through judicial fiat but through legislative action in the states, allowing the voters to determine the legality of abortion and its circumstances. In doing so, he can then pledge to appoint strict constructionist justices to the appellate and Supreme courts. He could also take a similar position on gay marriage.

Gun control would be a tougher nut to crack. Of the three issues Novak mentions, this is the only one with an explicit guarantee in the Constitution, and yet it's the one right that liberals attack. It will be hard to square that impulse with the conservative base no matter what philosophical or utilitarian arguments Rudy might offer, and a pro-gun Democrat could steal the South in the general election, even if Rudy won the nomination. Al Gore lost his home state of Tennessee in 2000, and the election as a result, largely on this one issue.

I like Rudy Giuliani; in fact, I admire him tremendously. Many Republicans feel the same way, and that admiration undoubtedly gives him a tremendous boost. However, admiration does not equate to guaranteed political support. It does cover some gray area, and the comparison to John McCain shows that to some extent. McCain's professed political beliefs align much more closely to the conservative base, but the truth is that few of us trust him any more. We trust Giuliani more because Rudy sticks to his word and his allies.

In the end, though, if the race came down to these two men, McCain would likely beat Giuliani in the primaries, because the base will not turn a blind eye to someone who opposes so many of their key positions -- even if he has earned the admiration and respect of all involved. Fortunately for the GOP, we expect to see many more candidates throw their hat into the ring, such as George Allen and others who give conservatives a real choice in the primaries.

No Hudna For Haniyeh

The Israeli government has rejected a call for a cease-fire from Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas PM that has yet to produce the israeli soldier his organization abducted in a border raid that killed two other IDF troops. Israel insists that no negotiations for cessation of its Gaza incursion can begin until Hamas returns Gilad Shalit:

The Hamas-led Palestinian government called for a cease-fire in its violent two-week standoff with Israel but stopped short Saturday of offering to release an Israeli soldier held by Hamas militants. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert rejected the proposal by Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh. Olmert will not agree to a truce until Hamas releases the soldier, officials in Olmert's office said. ...

Israel's two-week military campaign, prompted by the abduction of Cpl. Gilad Shalit has put the Hamas government under growing pressure. Israel has arrested several Palestinian Cabinet ministers and Hamas lawmakers.

On Saturday, Haniyeh issued a five-point cease-fire proposal, calling on Israel to halt its offensive and release prisoners but saying little about what Hamas is prepared to do in return.

"If we want to get out of the current crisis, it is necessary to return to calm, on the basis of a mutual halt to all military operations," said a statement issued by Cabinet spokesman Ghazi Hamad in Haniyeh's name.

If Haniyeh and the Palestinians thought that Israel would bite on an offer that thin, they must be daft. Israel has no intention of pulling out of Gaza without Shalit, or failing that, with the heads of as many terrorists as they can kill. For years, the Palestinians have made these abductions and prisoner swaps very expensive for Israel; now Israel has finally shaken off Western leaders, especially in Europe, and are determined to make them very expensive for the Palestinians from this point forward.

The Palestinians committed an act of war by raiding the border and capturing Shalit. Now they want to call off the war and get prisoners back, all without giving up anything in return. Capitulating to that demand with a truce only guarantees that Hamas will return to the same strategy again and again. In fact, the Palestinians have done just that for decades, aided and abetted by a benighted West that only appeared interested in a perverted status quo, where one side commits terrorism and the other side is barred from responding.

Finally, five years after 9/11, two years after Madrid, and almost on the anniversary of the London attack, the West has finally figured out that appeasing terrorists only gains more terrorism. Europe and the US has refrained from their normal demands that Israel stop shooting at the people who have sworn to kill them and who have conducted unceasing missile attacks ever since the withdrawal from Gaza. Everyone now understands the stakes involved in facing down Hamas, as well as all of the other affiliated Islamofascist terrorist groups in the region.

Hudnas will no longer suffice. If Hamas wants to see an end to the fighting, then they had better start living up to the agreements made previously with the Palestinian Authority and end all attacks on Israel and its citizens. Otherwise, they will have the war they wanted, and when they get their ass kicked, no one will lift a finger to stop it.

That's the lesson we need to teach Hamas and the Palestinians. If they want peace, then stop provoking war. The world has tired of sympathizing with bloodthirsty terrorists.

Iraqi Documents: UNMOVIC Knew Of Renewed WMD Efforts (Updated And Bumped)

Continuing my review of the many documents released from the DocEx files over the last two days, I found yet another interesting piece of information regarding Saddam Hussein's pursuit of WMD. In a summary of a larger document, the translators found that Iraq had restarted its processing of castor-bean extraction, from which ricin can be developed -- and that UNMOVIC discovered it in December 2002.

From CMPC-2003-003766-HT.pdf, with line breaks and emphases mine:

Ricin toxin is found in the bean of the castor plant. UNMOVIC inspections since December 2002 have verified that the bombed caster oil extraction plant at Fallujah III has been reconstructed on a larger scale.

Undeclared BW agents, there are a number of microorganisms and toxins that have been developed as BW agents by several countries, including Bacillus anthracis (anthrax), Clostridium bottalinum toxin, Yersinia pestis (plague), Francisella tularensis (tularemia), Brucella species (Brucellosis) Coxiella burnetti (Q fever) and Variola major (smallpox). Drying of BW Agents, BW agents are produced by a process that usually results in a liquid product, for example bacteria in an aqueous suspension, or toxins in an aquesous or organic solution.

Bacterial BW agent production, this requires certain equipment, typically a fomenter and down stream processing equipment such as separators and settling tanks. Also required for the production of bacterial BW agents are nutrients that are dissolved in water and added to the fermenter. The lack of supporting documentation makes it difficult for UNMOVIC to confirm Iraq's figures on the quantities of bacterial BW agent produced.

Genetic Engineering and Viral Research. Genetic Engineering, a process whereby an organism's genetic material is modified, has many medical and industrial applications. BW Agent Stimulants are chemicals or microorganisms that have very similar characteristics and properties to a biological warfare agent.

UNMOVIC inspections and Iraqi declarations confirm that Iraq continues working with organisms that could be used as BW agent stimulates. The documents display after each section the actions that Iraq could take to help in resolving the issue and convincing the UN inspection teams that the activity have stopped or were fruitless and so on.

So here we have confirmation that Iraq continued to work on WMD, and that the new UNMOVIC inspections verified that. We had previously heard from the mainstream media that UNMOVIC only found that the Iraqis still refused to cooperate fully with the inspections, but this puts a little different light on the situation as the UN found it as they debated how to deal with Iraq. Even with Saddam actively pursuing WMD, as it turns out, they refused to take any action except to propose extended inspections.

Another point seems rather interesting here. The third paragraph seems to match up pretty well with the CIA/DIA description of the mobile laboratories discovered shortly after the invasion of Iraq:

Common elements between the source’s description and the trailers include a control panel, fermentor, water tank, holding tank, and two sets of gas cylinders. One set of gas cylinders was reported to provide clean gases—oxygen and nitrogen—for production, and the other set captured exhaust gases, concealing signatures of BW agent production.

The discovered trailers also incorporate air-stirred fermentors, which the source reported were part of the second-generation plant design.

Once again, it looks like Saddam's own documentation makes it clear that he had never stopped working on WMD programs. This time, it also shows that UNMOVIC and the UNSC knew it.

UPDATE and BUMP: Hans Blix never mentioned ricin or castor beans in his UN presentation on March 7, 2003. In fact, it never even mentions the word "violation" once.

Hamdi Mahmoud Made Some People Nervous

The month prior to the American invasion of Iraq, the Times of London broke the news that one of Saddam's bodyguards had defected to the West and had given the Mossad a file that showed where Saddam Hussein kept his WMD (Times link not available). Abu Hamdi Mahmoud provided what looked like a smoking gun to the UNMOVIC team:

The bodyguard, Abu Hamdi Mahmoud, had provided Israeli intelligence with a list of sites, the newspaper said, as he was debriefed at a high-security Israeli base.

It quoted William Tierney, a former UN weapons inspector who has continued to gather information on Saddam’s arsenal, as saying Mahmoud’s information was "the smoking gun" that has so far proved so elusive for both the UN weapons inspectors and US intelligence.

"Once the inspectors go to where Mahmoud has pointed them, then it’s all over for Saddam," Mr Tierney said.

The newspaper said Mahmoud was a member of the elite unit that protects Saddam, called the Murasiq Qun - the "Inner Circle". Known as "the Gatekeeper", Mahmoud was a muscular Saddam lookalike often photographed standing behind Saddam .

Not much has been heard from Hamdi Mahmoud since the fall of Saddam. Google searches turn up little except the initial reporting on the topic. The UNMOVIC inspections ended shortly before the invasion. One other reason that the inspections may not have turned up anything of value may be because of the alert that Iraqi Intelligence Service directors sent out immediately after Mahmoud's defection. In document IISP-2003-00027591-HT-DHX.pdf, the General Director of Directorate 17 (responsible for training of IIS officers) sent a Top Secret and Personal communique to the chief of Directorate 40 regarding the defection and publication of the material:

In the name of God, the Compassionate, the Benevolent Top Secret and Personal Number Directorate 17/6/1 Date: 2/3/2003 Subject: News

To: The Director of Directorate 40

Kadimi Kurdistan broadcasting station claimed the following:

British sources revealed that one of the personal bodyguards of the president of the Iraqi regime handed the Israeli secret service, the Mossad, a file containing the locations of secret arsenals where Saddam is concealing WMD. The British Sunday Times reported that Hamdi Mahmoud, Saddam’s personal bodyguard, fled Iraq recently to Israel and gave that file to the Mossad. The newspaper pointed that the information revealed by Mahmoud comes a day before the International inspectors presented their report to the United Nations regarding the inspection operations inside Iraq. It went on to add that Mahmoud, now living in Israel at an undisclosed location, has given the Mossad a secret file containing all the locations where Baghdad is hiding weapons and equipment of mass destruction. The newspaper explained that the locations include a chemical weapon plant built underground in Baghdad, a plant to assemble SCUD missile near al-Ramadi, an underground reinforced arsenal for biological bombs, in addition to five arsenals for missiles buried in the sands of the Western desert.

Note that none of the above talks about any kind of false information getting propagated by Mahmoud. The memo treats the information published as fact rather than speculation or disinformation. Moreoever, the very urgency implied in the classification and in the language gives the impression that the IIS considered this a big problem.

Iraqi Documents: Kuwaiti POWs Used As Human Shields

This story has been reported before, but the captured IIS documents contains the actual orders from Qusai Hussein directing the Republican Guard to take Kuwaiti prisoners illegally held for twelve years and use them as human shields at strategic locations. Document CMPC-2003-012666.pdf shows the brutal callousness that became the hallmark of the Hussein family:

Presidential Office/ Special Office The Secretary: Re / Kuwaiti POW’s

Regarding the execution of Mr. President, Commander Saddam Hussein’s (God protect him) orders, according to the decision of the Revolutionary Command Council on Friday, March 4, 2003.

Transfer all Kuwaiti POW’s / a total of 448 captured Kuwaitis who are located at the Al-Nida Al-Agher Prison and the Intelligence / General Center and Kazema Prison in Al-Kazema, to make them human shields at all locations that are expected to be attacked by the American aggressors. Put them in communication locations and essential ministries, radio and television, Military Industrial Commissions, and all other locations expected to be attacked by the criminal Anglo-American aggressors.

Transporting them should be in coordination with:
Intelligence Services Directorate
Republican Guard Chief of Staff

Under direct supervision of the Special Security Organization / Organization Security

[Signature]
Qusai Saddam Hussein
Supervisor of the Republican Guard Secretariat
March 14, 2003

Recall that the cease-fire agreement that kept Coalition forces from marching to Baghdad in 1991 required Saddam Hussein to release all Kuwaitis held prisoner immediately. Saddam and his family never complied with this major requirement, an act of war in itself. Qusai compounded it by violating every standard of war by using his illegal prisoners to act as unwilling human shields to deter the Americans from attacking their command and control facilities.

As I said above, this is not a new story, but it is one worth repeating.

Saddam's Idea Of Diplomatic Pouches

Another DocEx document has a strange take on diplomacy under Saddam Hussein's brutal regime. A top-secret roster of Iraqi Intelligence Service projects for 2003 shows some interesting, inventive, and disturbing initiatives that only the American invasion stopped. From CMPC-2003-005745.pdf:

Use of diplomatic briefcases as an explosive device that can not be detected using an X Ray device

Sabotaging airplane fuel

Development of a research project for self igniting chemical mixtures to be used in acts of sabotage

Project for camouflaging a long range explosive device using a stick [or crutch]

If Saddam had remained in power, the IIS would have developed these murder systems for the state of Iraq. What purpose would an exploding diplomatic briefcase serve other than assassination or terrorism? Self-igniting chemical explosives are only useful for the same purposes, and probably violated the UN resolutions regarding chemical weapons. And can anyone imagine a rational state disguising its assassins as disabled people and their weapons as crutches?

This shows the Saddam regime as particularly virulent, as well as close to certifiable. It may or may not have much to do with WMD, but it certainly shows that the world is better off with Saddam locked away.

ABC: AQ Planned 5th Anniversary Celebration

According to a new ABC News report, the conspiracy revealed earlier today to target the PATH trains intended on carrying out their attack on September 11th, 2006. The al-Qaeda-connected terrorists planned on giving New Yorkers a reminder on the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks -- and it may still be in motion:

Federal law enforcement officials tell ABC News a plot designed to use 15 to 20 suicide bombers on one commuter train as close to Sept. 11 as possible was well underway. ...

"This is a plot that would have involved martyrdom, explosives and certain of the tubes that connect New Jersey with lower Manhattan," said Mark Mershon, Assistant Director-in-Charge of the FBI New York Field Office. "We're not discussing the modality behind that."

But law enforcement officials say the plotters had already accessed detailed blueprints and drawings of the PATH tunnels, available on the internet.

And like the London bombers, the plan was to load backpacks with explosives.

Assem Hammoud, earlier identified by his nom de guerre Amir Andalousli, has admitted to taking the bayat pledge that made him part of al-Qaeda. He had planned to go to an AQ training camp in Pakistan this summer, ahead of the plot. The description of the plot now has at least two suspects detained, five more on the run, with Hammoud the only one under formal arrest at the moment. One could surmise that one of the reasons Hammoud planned to go to Pakistan would be to get the necessary number of martyrs to execute the massive explosions.

ABC also has more details about the investigation. They have watched this cell coalesce for over a year, starting with chat room meetings that the terrorists apparently thought were secure. None of the conspirators were ever in the US, apparently, although at least one of the was in Canada at some point. Unsurprisingly, some of the plotters planned on traveling to New York to carry out this attack from ... Saudi Arabia.

Talk about irony. And deja vu. (via Hot Air)

Iraqi Documents: Our Friends, The Russians (Updated And Bunped)

One of the reasons that the DoD may have sat on the captured IIS files without translating or releasing them, some speculate, was that the contents may embarrass some of our allies in the overall war on terror. One document released yesterday seems to support that analysis. According to document CMPC-2003-000878, the Russians gave more active support to Saddam prior to the March 2003 invasion than previously known -- and they used Syria as a conduit for their materiel:

Bulletproof Vests from Russia

Thirteen thousand vests were imported from Russia by request from the Presidential Command Office; they were all turned over to Qusai Saddam Hussein eight days before the war. Three Russian experts came with the vests, and the deal had been financed through a wealthy man in al-Kut (180 km south of Baghdad). [The suits] were bought for 250 dollars and then sold to Qusai Saddam Hussein for 600 dollars; they had sneaked into [Iraq] by way of [Syria] after [being] wrapped by Swedish jackets (so as not to embarrass Syria) as well as to deceive the American Intelligence, [however] [the American Intelligence] was able to discover this operation.

This suit is characterized by its ability to withstand a round from an American made M16-A2 (which has a very high speed and a piercing head) from a distance of only 5 meters, and the MG 7.62 [mm] machine gun at the same distance.

Advanced Russian T-72 Heavy Tank Engines

This tank is considered the gem of the Russian (Armored divisions); it has a 125 mm smoothbore barrel, and is capable of firing an APFSD (armor-piercing) round. These tanks suffer from engine [problems] from their use in the Iran-Iraq and Gulf wars. Iraq at most used 25 liters of engine oil per month on these tanks [and] Republican Guard officers always complained about their [the tanks] movement (During Operation Desert Fox in 1998, they were only able to move 6 tanks a distance of 1200 meters from the other 21 tanks.) One characteristic of a Russian armored tank is that the greatest emphasis is put on fire, then force, movement, and armor, in that order. Suddenly, there were new engines imported from Russia, and Republican Guard units were provided with 70 engines for each unit; these engines passed though Syria one month before the war.

This doesn't have much to do with WMD, of course, but the revelation of the movement of tank engines -- seventy of them for every armored unit -- has to raise some eyebrows about the relationship between Washington and Moscow. It also should remind people about the materiel conduit that Syria supplied to Saddam Hussein and Vladimir Putin, and whether or not that conduit operated bidirectionally. Perhaps the WMD that the US seeks did not stay in Syria at all, but made its way to Russia instead.

UPDATE and BUMP: Another look at our friends in Moscow comes in document CMPC-2003-001950, which details a meeting with the Russian ambassador in March 2003. The diplomats discussed the evacuation of Russian citizens from Iraq, but also discussed current American military assets deployed in the Gulf theater:

3- The ambassador, during the meeting, had given the following information about the American military presence in the Gulf and in the area since March 2. as follows: - 206500 troops, including: 98000 air force troops, 36500 infantry. 90% of these forces are in Kuwait, positioned on board of American warships. - American forces had reached Bobian Island. - 480 tanks. - 1132 armored vehicles. - 296 artillery - 735 Apache Helicopters - 871 combat planes - 106 US navy units, of which 68 are in the Gulf. The rest of them are in Oman, Adan, The Red Sea, and the Mediterranean Sea. - 5 aircraft carriers, one of which is nuclear. Three are in the Gulf, one is in the Mediterranean Sea, and another one is on the way. - 583 cruise missiles are positioned on the US navy units. They are distributed over 22 navy units. - 64 cruise missiles are carried by planes. - Ten B-52H heavy bombers are positioned in the Indian Ocean. - Eight B-18 aircrafts are located at the American base in Oman (Tamarid Center).

4- The ambassador had indicated that they were concerned about the increasing number of aircrafts in Jordan . Also, he described the number of those aircrafts, positioned at Al-Sult base, as follows:
- 24 F-16 aircrafts.
- 10 Tornado aircrafts.
- 11 aircraft carrier.

Also, he indicated that there are five A-10 tank destroyer aircrafts located at King Faisal base in Jordan.

5- The ambassador also indicated that a number of the 82nd Division military personnel, which was stationed in Afghanistan, have begun arriving in Kuwait, and that the number has reached 750 to date.

I'm sure the White House would prefer not to have this get around.

One Year Ago: The London Bombings

Today marks the first anniversary of the Islamist attack on London's transportation systems, killing dozens and injuring many more. At the time our family were in Washington DC on vacation, wondering whether terrorists would try coordinated attacks in DC or New York City at the same time. We spent extra time around the television, watching the terrible aftermath of the attacks. At the time, I wrote:

If AQ thinks that they can frighten Blair and the British out of the war on terror by bombing London, I believe they are quite mistaken. Another lunatic used terror on Londoners on a much more massive scale for years at a stretch, thinking that the same kind of attacks would panic the British into surrendering, or at least into withdrawing from the conflict. The Blitz did neither. It hardened British resolve to stamp out the cancerous philosophy of fascism and to destroy the governments that used it to oppress their own people, commit genocide on ghastly scales, and attack peaceful civilian populations to further their political goals.

Hitler didn't succeed at his campaign of intimidation. Osama bin Laden won't either. Put simply, the British are not Spaniards. They will arise in fury and a renewed sense of mission to stamp out the bloodthirsty terrorists who have committed this heinous act -- and we will stand with them to do so, just as they have stood with us these long years since 9/11.

The British have remained steadfast in our alliance against the Islamofascists, and indeed have demonstrated the phlegm and stoic resolve for which they are so rightly reknowned. They have undertaken a hard look at the effects of multiculturalism, more bravely than some in the US, and resolved that those who wish to live in Britain should expect to assimilate into British society.

The Yoests have other thoughts; Charmaine was in London at the time of the attacks, and her husband Jack reposts their conversation that morning. Be sure to read the entire post, and drop a nice comment to Jack and Charmaine, two of the most gracious people you will ever find on the Internet.

Dr. Germ Analyzes Aircraft BW Attack Requirements In 2002

For those who continue to reject evidence of Saddam Hussein's pursuit of WMD programs, the document released yesterday by the FMSO DocEx project makes it a much more difficult proposition. Document CMPC-2003-004346 reveals that Dr. Rehab Rasheed Taha, otherwise known as Dr. Germ, prepared an analysis in 2002 of how to spread biological weapons material using an aircraft as the medium, and how far they had advanced on the application:

In the name of God, most Merciful, most Compassionate

THE BIOLOGICAL COMMITTEE DECISION

An appendage to the Biological Committee Decision, on 10 March 2002, subsequent to the biological activity combined list review, that was received after the delegate’s return from Moscow, and in reference to the concluded meeting convened on 10 April 2002, [when] the (GRL) draft list study was completed. – The Biological Section is evaluating what is shown in the third revised attachment for the continuous observation and examination plan. - The grades are subject to change according to the automation of export and import controls, according to resolution 1051 (1996) issued in document No. (S / 2001 / 560) which shows us the following:

1 – What is included in the draft list (GRL) is similar to what is included in the revised comments; submissive grades according to the system of export and import controls except the following:

a. Paragraph 7-1 from the revised statement and the (GRL) draft about the aircraft sprayers that are able to scatter dust. The dispensing percentage exceeds the one liter suspended liquid per minute or 10 grams of the dry substance per minute, therefore the size of the aerosol or dust portions were increased to the size of (15) microns or less.

b. A new paragraph under No. (11) was added to the draft list (GRL). According to that, it combined microscopic conservation equipment and Micro Encapsulation that was taken from the reviewed merchandise list (the additional list) stated in resolution (1382) 2001.

c. The (GRL) draft list indicated changes to the biological part, which was placed in the last page of the draft. Agents were added for the use of tissues and cell cultures (Cell Culture Mediators), and added cell growth cultures to cow fetus serums of (1) liter or more. These changes are not included in the mentioned list in paragraph (5) relating to culture media.

2. According to the changes shown in Paragraph (1-7), it increases the size of aerosol portions or the dust, and limits it to within (15) microns or less that and does not create a problem. The available information that we’ve been referring to is that agricultural usage doesn’t need these small sizes (quantities), but larger sizes (quantities). What is related to the change in the previously added paragraph (11), combining microscopic conservation equipment and micro encapsulation also does not create a problem because the use of this equipment is very limited, and it does not effect the production or research process.

Changes mentioned (suggested) in paragraph (5), that subjoin culture agents used in tissue culturing or cells and cell growth culturing to cow fetus serum is not considered a problem. These agents [were] originally entered including the complicated culture agent paragraph mentioned in paragraph (5) from the revised comments of the grades that are subject to notification in accordance to the system of imports and exports, that were imposed by resolution 1051 (1996).

Review please with respects.

Dr. Rehab Rasheed Taha
Committee Chief
Captain
Senan Abdel Hassan
Member
04-13-2002
Thamer Abdel Rahman
Member
04-13-2002

This shows that Taha continued to pursue application of biological weapons, in this case taking care to exploit UNSCOM parameters to hide the existence of the source material, its weaponization into the proper size (15 microns or less) for dissemination, and the process by which she produced it. This memo is dated in American format and comes from April 2002, prior to the Congressional authorization of force, but well after 9/11 and our renewed focus on the region.

Saddam and his henchmen not only had every intention of reconstituting their WMD programs, they obviously continued them unabated during the entire twelve-year quagmire while the UNS