Month: June 2006

An Appointment With The Opthalmologist

Israeli Air Force pilots paid a visit to the Middle East’s most famous opthalmologist earlier today, reminding the doctor that unless he stops protecting Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal, the IDF may send a lot more business his way soon:

Israeli warplanes buzzed the summer residence of Syrian President Bashar Assad early Wednesday, military officials said, in a message aimed at pressuring the Syrian leader to win the release of a captured Israeli soldier.
The officials said on condition of anonymity that the fighter jets flew over Assad’s palace in a low-altitude overnight raid near the Mediterranean port city of Latakia in northwestern Syria. Israeli television reports said four planes were involved, and Assad was home at the time.
The flight caused “noise” on the ground, the military officials said on condition of anonymity, according to military guidelines.

The IDF has paid visits to Bashar Assad before. In 2003, they buzzed the house at a low enough altitude and high enoufh speed to shatter the windows of his villa. Syrians told the media that anti-aircraft fire drove off the jets, but not before Israel delivered its message.
The message is the same that George Bush announced on September 20, 2001. Those nations that support terrorism will find themselves held responsible for terrorist activity as if they had conducted it themselves. We have removed two brutal regimes under that same policy in Iraq and Afghanistan. The two biggest terror sponsors, however, still remain in power in Damascus and Teheran. Israel has apparently decided that Assad’s sponsorship of Hamas makes him responsible for their attacks and abductions (up to three now), a decision that is both reasonable and long overdue.
Israel also wants to ensure that Assad understands that his life can be forfeit at any time Israel decides. The opthalmologist may not have the same acumen as his father, but one hopes he can read the writing on the wall. He has a choice to make — and Israel wants him to understand the consequences of a bad decision.
UPDATE: CQ reader Turner H reminds me that Assad is an opthalmologist, not an optometrist. Good thing I have an eye appointment myself this Friday!

Iraqi Insurgents Want Two-Year Withdrawal Commitment

The amnesty plan offered by Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki and President Jalal al-Talibani appears to have broken a standoff with native insurgents in Iraq. The groups have replied by demanding a commitment to a two-year withdrawal plan of foreign forces from Iraq as a condition of their surrender:

Insurgents are demanding the withdrawal of all U.S. and British forces from Iraq within two years as a condition for joining reconciliation talks, a senior Iraqi government official said Wednesday. …
Iraqi government officials involved with the contacts with insurgents told The Associated Press that several militant groups sent delegates from their regions and tribes to speak on their behalf.
One of the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of demands for secrecy in the talks, said the insurgents have so far rejected face-to-face talks, saying they fear being targeted by Shiite militias, Iraqi security forces and the Americans.
The official said the insurgents have demanded a two-year “timetable for withdrawal” in return for joining Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s bid for national reconciliation.
The insurgents also said a condition for any future direct talks would be the presence of observers from the Arab League, Saudi Arabia and Iraq’s influential Sunni Association of Muslim Scholars.

These demands do not appear too extreme and can form the basis of rational talks aimed at a national reconciliation. The involvement of the Saudis and the two Arab associations may not sit well with the new Iraqi government; after all, none of them have a particular fondness for democracy or self-determination, especially Saudi Arabia. However, Iraq will have to find ways to exist in tandem with all of them, and including them in this process might be a good start.
Interestingly, the insurgents tacitly admit the necessity of the foreign troops in their demand. They have not demanded an immediate withdrawal, or even one within 12 months. Foreign troops need to remain to ensure protection against the foreign insurgency, which Iraqis have grown to detest. As long as the native insurgents and Ba’athist dead-enders have stopped tossing bombs and firing bullets, the foreign troops pose no danger to them. More to the point, the Sunnis who make up the insurgencies fear Shi’ite militias more than the foreign troops. They need our protection from the Shi’ite vengeance that would surely erupt without some kind of stabilizing force to prevent it.
In this, the insurgents appear far ahead of the Democrats in Congress. They have spent the last few months demanding immediate withdrawals or at least timetables for such, with some calling for retreat as early as the end of this year. Even the insurgents see the folly of that idea. This demand acknowledges that the US and Coalition forces have succeeded in creating an effective and professional security force for Iraq, one that needs more training and seasoning before we can leave and expect stability and self-management in Iraq.
I wonder if the Democrats will have an explanation for why they want our troops to retreat faster than the insurgents have demanded.

Iraqi Oil Production Hits New Post-War High

The production of oil in Iraq has reached a post-Saddam high of 2.5 million barrels a day, with a quarter of the production going to domestic use. The AP reports that the Iraqi production system has survived sabotage and political chaos to move forward to its current production levels:

Iraq is producing an average of 2.5 million barrels of oil a day, its highest level since the war began in 2003, an oil ministry spokesman said Wednesday.
Assem Jihad said 1.6 million barrels are being exported daily from the southern port of Basra, while 300,000 are being pumped from the northern city of Kirkuk to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
The other 600,000 barrels produced daily are for domestic use, he said. … Jihad also said new measures were being implemented and he was optimistic that the situation would improve.
“We hope to add 200,000 to 300,000 (barrels per day) before the end of this year,” Jihad told The Associated Press, adding he also hoped to double the amount of oil pumped from Kirkuk to Ceyhan in that time period.

The increase in oil production shows an improving security situation as well as expertise. However, it only represents about 70% of the production under the Oil-For-Food program in the years leading up to the March 2003 invasion. Oil production under OFF peaked at 3.5 million barrels a day. Unlike the OFF production, though, the proceeds of today’s production do not go into the pockets of a genocidal tyrant and the corrupt Western officials trying to curry favor with the Butcher of Baghdad.
It’s good news, and we can look forward to more increases as the Iraqi government grows stronger.

Mixed Bag In Texas Redistricting Case

The Supreme Court handed down a moderate victory for Texas Republicans, ruling that states can redistrict at any time, and that the redistricting plan did not violate the Constitution. The court did rule, however, that the Texas legislature must redraw one district, as the new boundaries unfairly deprived Hispanic voters of political power:

The Supreme Court on Wednesday upheld most of the Texas congressional map engineered by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay but threw out part, saying some of the new boundaries failed to protect minority voting rights. …
At issue was the shifting of 100,000 Hispanics out of a district represented by a Republican incumbent and into a new, oddly shaped district. Foes of the plan had argued that that was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander under the Voting Rights Act, which protects minority voting rights.
On a different issue, the court ruled that state legislators may draw new maps as often as they like — not just once a decade as Texas Democrats claimed. That means Democratic and Republican state lawmakers can push through new maps anytime there is a power shift at a state capital.

In some respect, the court upheld the power of the legislature against that of the judiciary. The main argument in the lawsuit sought to throw out the entire redistricting plan implemented by the Texas legislature after a court-ordered redistricting plan was put into place after the 2000 census. The plaintiffs maintained that redistricting could only be done once per census. The Supreme Court disagreed, noting the requirement of redistricting after each census but declining to interpret that as a requirement for only one redistricting. The decision also acknowledges the right of the elected branch to write laws that overrule court decisions, an important precedent for the primacy of the legislature.
The court extended a minor victory for the plaintiffs in TX-23, currently represented by Republican Henry Bonilla. Ironically, the court agreed with the plaintiffs that the new district inappropriately excluded Hispanics and did not allow them an equal opportunity for representation. Bonilla, of course, is Hispanic. The Texas legislature will need to redraw TX-23 and at least one neighboring district. It seems odd that the court did not take into account the actual results of the election, where a Hispanic won the seat; instead, the court once again put Texas redistricting at the mercy of federal courts, somewhat negating their overall decision.
TX-23 borders districts 16, 11, 28, and Mexico, which thankfully does not yet have a representative in Congress. Those representatives are:
K. Michael Conaway, TX-11 (Republican)
Silvestre Reyes, TX-16 (Democrat)
Henry Cuellar, TX-28 (Democrat)
It doesn’t appear that Hispanics or Democrats have a problem competing in these areas. The court decision seems a bit strange, especially when reviewing the districting map. The districts themselves do not appear all that strangely shaped (one has to remember that the Captain is a California native, however!). The fact that of the four districts in question, three have elected Hispanic representatives and two of them Democrats appears to prove that the districts are both representative and reasonably competitive.
Overall, however, the ruling gives Republicans a victory and Tom DeLay a small measure of redemption.

9/11 Commission Chair: ‘A Good Program Is Over’

Byron York interviewed Thomas Kean, the 9/11 Commission chairman, on the revelation of the covert terror-finance intelligence operation in the New York Times last week. Kean tells the National Review’s White House correspondent that he tried to talk Bill Keller out of publishing the story, and pronounces the program dead as a result of Keller’s decision:

Thomas Kean, the co-chairman of the September 11 Commission, was briefed several weeks ago about the Treasury Department’s terrorist-finance program, and after the session, Kean says, “I came away with the idea that this was a good program, one that was legal, one that was not violating anybody’s civil liberties…and something the U.S. government should be doing to make us safer.”
Kean tells National Review Online that the New York Times’s decision to expose the terrorist finance effort — Kean called Times executive editor Bill Keller in an attempt to persuade him not to publish — has done terrible damage to the program. “I think it’s over,” Kean says. “Terrorists read the newspapers. Once the program became known, then obviously the terrorists were not going to use these methods any more.” …
“That’s the way it is in this war,” says Kean. “There are a number of programs we are using to try to disrupt terrorist activities, and you never know which one is going to be successful. We knew that this one already had been.”

Indeed, this program had shown success in bringing down at least one al-Qaeda leader. It allowed American intel the ability to track the finances of terror suspects without having to breach private data on other transactions, and given the large cash movement required for terror plots, it provided quite a perch for intel agents to surveil the system. This, according to Kean, was one of the most successful post-9/11 efforts by the government in increasing security and targeting terrorists.
Thanks to the Times, that has come to a close. With the operation now made public, the SWIFT cooperative and the EU now have closed ranks and demanded an end to American investigations. The International Herald Tribune, owned by the New York Times, now reports that the administrative subpoenas that made the investigations legal in the US will no longer suffice for Europe:

The Bush administration has defended the program as a crucial element in its campaign against terrorism, but Europe and the United States are increasingly at odds over how to protect civil liberties at the same time.
On Tuesday, the European Parliament’s center-right European People’s Party, its largest and most influential grouping, called for the EU to open an inquiry into the legality of Swift’s actions. Thomas Bickl, a spokesman for the party, said it was concerned that the transfers had been made as part of a covert and untransparent operation. …
Davies said Swift had received broad administrative subpoenas for millions of records from the Treasury Department, which gave its actions a legal basis in the United States. But he said the subpoenas took the form of letters that were issued without judicial consent or due process in the European Union, where only the data protection authorities or the courts have the power to consent to such transfers.

The Europeans have a difficult time understanding why a covert operation to track terrorist financing requires a lack of transparency — while arguing that such an operation breaches the privacy of Europeans. That seems a rather contradictory statement. Full transparency would mean the publication of all financial data. If Europe wants to keep that data secret, then how could an investigation of illegal transfers of money in support of terrorists offer “full transparency”? The entire idea is to track that money to see where it leads, not to let people know that the transfers have been traced.
This is just another example of European silliness in the face of an existential threat. It shows why the US has limited access to these programs to those who take terrorism seriously — and the EU, thus far, doesn’t qualify. Swift understood the stakes involved, but now that the Times has embarrassed them in Europe by revealing their role in the operation, we can expect their cooperation to come to a screeching halt.
All of this was as predictable as the sun rising in the east, and the Bush administration tried to explain that to Bill Keller on a number of occasions through a number of different people, including Kean. However, Keller remained obtuse either deliberately or through some defect of intellect and ran the story anyway. Thanks to Keller, we will now know much less about terror financing, and therefore much less about the terrorists, their plans, and their resources.

Cannon Wins The Primary

Rep. Chris Cannon beat his Republican primary opponent, John Jacobs, last night in what supposedly was a bellwether race on illegal immigration. Hardliners on border security had targeted Cannon in the primary despite his support for the House border-enforcement bill because he also supported a compromise with the US Senate. His twelve-point victory belies the earlier analysis that Jacobs had pulled even with Cannon:

The five-term incumbent defeated political newcomer John Jacob on Tuesday 56 percent to 44 percent — or 32,306 votes to 25,589 votes — with all precincts reporting but an unknown number of absentee ballots to be counted.
“This is a big margin of victory. It says a lot about Republicans getting together and solving this problem,” he said. …
Last December, Cannon voted for a House bill that would toughen border security, criminalize people who help illegal immigrants and make being in the U.S. without the required papers a felony. But he also supports Bush’s proposal for a guest-worker program.
Cannon’s willingness to compromise made him a target of Team America, a conservative group that calls illegal immigration the most critical problem facing the nation. It spent $40,000 on radio ads criticizing him.

Jacons conceded the race last night when the trends became obvious. Cannon now has a mandate from the Republicans in the area to pursue both border security and a compromise on normalization, assuming that he gets re-elected to Congress in the general election this fall. The Democrats will certainly take note of the split in Cannon’s district and do their best to exploit it.
That puts the onus back on Team America and the Utah GOP to unite behind their candidate. They ran a tough primary, which is commendable, but in the end they lost. Will Utah Republicans have what it takes to be a majority party and elect Cannon back to Congress, or will they sit out the general election in a fit of pique over losing the primary on this narrow ground?

Gaza Incursion Gains Ground

The IDF gained important tactical positions east of Rafah this morning, allowing Israel to control more of the southern border of Gaza, while it also captured an airstrip in Dahaniyeh and bombed northern Gaza where Palestinian terrorists often launch Kassam rockets into Israel. The manuevers show that the IDF has taken the time to think its incursion through for strategic as well as tactical purposes, cutting off the escape routes from Gaza into Egypt:

Earlier in the day, the IDF took control of the abandoned airport in Dahaniyeh and the town of Shuka in southern Gaza in a move to cement their foothold in areas east of Rafah, a city on the Egyptian border.
The area of Dahaniyeh represents a strategic control and observation point over the area of Rafah and the southern Gaza Strip. So far there has been one incident of gunfire and anti-tank missile fire at the forces, but no injuries or damage were reported. …
Armored personnel carriers were stationed outside northern Gaza, and were expected to move in later in the day.

The Israelis appear to have a much larger invasion planned than first thought. Originally, pundits surmised that the IDF had wanted to just find their kidnapped soldier, and assumed that their intel placed him in or around Rafah. However, if the Jerusalam Post has its information correct, the IDF will hit Gaza in the center and the north once Israel has the southern egress routes into Egypt sealed off — effectively trapping Palestinian fighters between the IDF and the Mediterranean.
The Israelis appear serious this time about delivering the war for which the Palestinians voted when they elected Hamas to govern them. Hamas certainly has given them the provocation the voters wanted by attacking into Israel and kidnapping Gilad Shalit. With Gaza no longer occupied by Israel, it gives them a much easier target to attack on this invasion; the Palestinians no longer have the settlements as a bargaining chip against full-scale war.
This incursion comes as the world media reports that Hamas has agreed to an “implicit recognition” of Israel, but the details show that it does no such thing:

The military moves came as Hamas executed a dramatic shift in policy to reach an agreement that implicitly recognises Israel. The militant Palestinian group’s U-turn could see the Hamas-led Government — anathema to Israel and the West — replaced within weeks by a national unity coalition.
As the military wing of Hamas took joint responsibility for kidnapping the Israeli soldier, its political wing was ending its power struggle with Mr Abbas by apparently accepting a national unity plan that the President had threatened to put to a referendum. …
Hamas has long advocated the destruction of Israel, but the plan calls for a Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza territories captured by Israel in 1967 — implicitly recognising Israel’s existence in the rest of historic Palestine.
However, the original document, drawn up by Palestinian prisoners from all factions, does not mention a two-state solution or Israel’s right to exist. Its already ambiguous language may also have been watered down in recent talks.

The document that Hamas has apparently accepted does not implicitly recognize Israel, nor does it limit resistance to the “Zionist enemy” to the post-1967 territories, as some had reported earlier. As I wrote last week, the NCD does nothing but propose that all factions unite in their opposition to Israel rather than continue to fight each other. It delegitimizes any effort to find peace by tying all groups into one unit to fight Israel under one command. With Hamas’ efforts this week to force military action, we can see exactly what purpose the NCD serves now.
Israel considers Hamas an enemy at war, and have announced that Hamas leaders involved in the attack and kidnapping of at least Gilad Shalit will be a fair target. That includes Khalid Mashaal, who reportedly ran the abduction mission from his offices in Syria:

Justice Minister Haim Ramon said Wednesday that Hamas’s Syria-based leader, Khaled Mashaal, is a target for assassination for ordering the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier in the Gaza Strip.
“He is definitely in our sights … he is a target,” Ramon told Army Radio. “Khaled Mashaal, as some who is overseeing, actually commanding the terror acts, is definitely a target.”
Interior Minister and former Shin Bet head Avi Dichter said that the only reason Mashaal is not in an Israeli jail is that Israel, as an enlightened nation, has placed certain restrictions upon itself.

Well, that’s not entirely the reason. The Mossad actually attempted an assassination once before, injecting Mashaal with poison in Jordan, but got caught before Mashaal died. King Hussein of Jordan refused to release the agents until Israel gave up the antidote, which it did and Mashaal survived. Netanyahu also released Sheik Ahmed Yassin, the Hamas spiritual leader, as part of the deal. The IDF caught up to Yassin seven years later in 2004, when they killed him in a 2004 Gaza air strike.
If the IDF gets another shot at Mashaal, pardoning the pun, you can be sure they will take it.

Saudi Visas Double In 2006

The Jerusalem Post revealed earlier tonight that a study of State Department figures show that visas granted to Saudis have doubled in 2006. The State Department stated that we are “pleased” at the increase:

For the first time since the September 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, the US State Department has begun to sharply increase the number of entry visas granted to Saudi Arabian nationals seeking to visit the United States, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
Figures obtained by the Post reveal that after three years of steady decline, 2005 saw the number of US visas issued to Saudis remain relatively stable, while this year the number has more than doubled.
In an e-mail to the Post, Amanda D. Rogers-Harper, a spokeswoman for the US State Department, confirmed that as of June 10, a total of 18,683 non-immigrant US visas had been issued to Saudi citizens since the start of the current fiscal year.
“This,” she noted, “is twice as many as the 9,338 issuances to Saudis” in the corresponding period last year, marking an increase of over 100 percent in just the past 12 months. …
“We are pleased to see an increase in visa applicants at posts around the world, including Saudi Arabia,” Rogers-Harper said, adding that this year’s increase could be attributed to “a new student scholarship program funded by the government of Saudi Arabia, which encourages students to pursue their studies in the US.
“We hope to see a continuation of this positive momentum,” she added.

Of course this pleases Americans. After all, it’s not as if students from Saudi Arabia traveling on visas ever caused us any problem before. Right? Oh, wait a minute — I do recall reading something about Saudi student visas in a government report I read at one time. I think this was a relevant passage (page 226):

By the spring of 2000,Hanjour was back in Afghanistan.According to KSM, Hanjour was sent to him in Karachi for inclusion in the plot after Hanjour was identified in al Qaeda’s al Faruq camp as a trained pilot, on the basis of background information he had provided. Hanjour had been at a camp in Afghanistan for a few weeks when Bin Ladin or Atef apparently realized that he was a trained pilot; he was told to report to KSM, who then trained Hanjour for a few days in the use of code words.
On June 20, Hanjour returned home to Saudi Arabia. He obtained a U.S. student visa on September 25 and told his family he was returning to his job in the UAE. Hanjour did go to the UAE, but to meet facilitator Ali Abdul Aziz Ali.

Yes, we’re delighted that so many Saudi students want to come to the United States. The program has shown great success in the past in allowing Saudis to come to our shores unchallenged. No wonder the State Department shows so much joy in their doubling of the numbers allowed to travel to our country.

Israel Meets Little Resistance In Gaza

The Jerusalem Post reports that Israeli troops have met only light resistance from Palestinians in Gaza as its ground offensive pushed across the border. The IDF has made this military operation a coordinated affair, with the Israeli Air Force taking out a power station in the area of the invasion, along with at least three bridges:

The incursion began shortly before midnight, when IAF aircraft blew up three main bridges, located along the main route connecting between the northern and southern parts of the Strip. The army said that the operation was intended to keep Hamas from taking kidnapped soldier Cpl. Gilad Shalit out of the Gaza Strip.
Ground forces then began entering the southeastern part of the Gaza Strip and the troops gained control of two key sites near Dahaniya. At the same time, artillery units were shelling areas from where Kassam rockets were often launched at Israel.
The Air Force also struck an electrical transformer station south of Gaza city, cutting the power supply from portions of the region. Palestinian sources said that the IDF shot at least nine missiles at the electric station. A large fire erupted and the turbines and fuel supplies were burned. Still, some of the power was restored by wires connected to an Israeli power supply, Israel Radio reported.
An IDF spokesperson told The Jerusalem Post that there was little Palestinian resistance to the incursion. He denied a report claiming that the Erez crossing had been opened in preparation for entry of troops into the northern Gaza Strip.

Palestinian terrorists claimed responsibility for another kidnapping, this time of Israeli civilian Eliyahu Asheri, an 18-year-old man from Itamar. His abductors threatened to kill him if Israel did not cease its offensive against Gaza, but Israel responded immediately by declaring that it would not negotiate for any hostage release. The Israelis also said that they would not release any Palestinian prisoners they now hold.
The Palestinians have fired Kassam rockets into Israel almost ever since the day Israel withdrew from Gaza. The artillery attacks in northern Gaza intend on wiping out the bases for those attacks. However, Israel did not invade Gaza until the Palestinians invaded Israel to kill two soldiers and abduct a third, Gilad Shalit. The Post now reports that the kidnappers have been taking orders from a Syrian-based Hamas leader, Khaled Mashaal. Ismail Haniyeh, the Palestinian prime minister, acknowledges that he knows the people holding Shalit, but thus far has not ordered his release. Israel has diplomats working with the US and France to get pressure on Syria to have Mashaal deported.
The destruction of the three bridges and the power station indicates that the Israelis have a particular military strategy in mind for this mission. They have cut off some egress paths, and it looks like they want to box the terrorists into an area that the IDF can exploit by land. The Jerusalem Post reports that the IDF wanted to ensure that Hamas could not sneak Shalit into Egypt and out of range of the IDF, but it seems unlikely that Egypt would want Shalit or the Hamas terrorists in the Sinai. I would wager that the Israelis have a very good idea where most of the terrorist assets in Gaza are located, and they may try to wipe out as much of Hamas and Islamic Jihad as possible during this exercise.
We should know more by the morning here in the US. Expect the UN to demand an end to the “aggression” by tomorrow afternoon.

The Hammer Falls In Gaza

Israel has begun its response to the Palestinian incursion from Gaza this weekend and the capture of an IDF soldier. Israeli tanks have attacked a bridge in central Gaza, and Palestinian security forces report that IDF tanks have begun to move towards the border:

Israeli planes attacked a bridge in central Gaza late Tuesday, Israel Radio reported, and Israeli tanks were said to be on the move, possibly signaling the start of a military operation.
Palestinian security forces said Israeli tanks were moving near the Israeli village of Nahal Oz, a main Israeli staging area just outside Gaza, but that they had not yet entered Gaza.
In the Shajaiyeh neighborhood of Gaza City, not far from the border fence, armed militants took up positions across from the blaring headlights of Israeli vehicles, and Israeli attack helicopters hovered overhead. The militants told residents to leave the area.
Israeli military officials said a limited operation has been authorized for southern Gaza, aimed at “terrorist infrastructure.” The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to reporters.

If any Palestinians have thoughts of fleeing into the Sinai, the Egyptian government has a response ready. After Hamas ignored their entreaties to release the wounded IDF soldier, they sent 2500 troops to the Gaza border. The Egyptians have no desire to get drawn into the conflict, but neither do they want a flood of Gaza refugees fleeing into Egypt to cause even more trouble than the Palestinian terrorists have already created.
The Israelis will not bargain with Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. They committed an act of war, and the Israelis will answer back in the same fashion. The only question will be how far they will go into Gaza and for how long.