This Could Have Waited

It’s not that I completely disagree with Nick Coleman in today’s Star Trribune. In some ways, I agree with what he has to say. But was this the time to say this?

The death bridge was “structurally deficient,” we now learn, and had a rating of just 50 percent, the threshold for replacement. But no one appears to have erred on the side of public safety. The errors were all the other way.
Would you drive your kids or let your spouse drive over a bridge that had a sign saying, “CAUTION: Fifty-Percent Bridge Ahead”?
No, you wouldn’t. But there wasn’t any warning on the Half Chance Bridge. There was nothing that told you that you might be sitting in your over-heated car, bumper to bumper, on a hot summer day, thinking of dinner with your wife or of going to see the Twins game or taking your kids for a walk to Dairy Queen later when, in a rumble and a roar, the world you knew would pancake into the river.

No, it wasn’t. First, we don’t even know what caused the collapse. It might be better to wait on finger-pointing until we know where to point. What if the problem wasn’t maintenance but design and overloading? That combination may be the problem, or it could be something else entirely.
And wouldn’t it be better to wait until the bodies are out of the water to start screeching at the public officials who should be concentrating on the rescue and recovery efforts? I’d prefer to have MnDOT, Tim Pawlenty, and the NTSB focused on the job at hand, not answering a lot of questions about the meaning of “structural deficiencies” at the moment. There will be plenty of time for that later.
I actually agree with Coleman on a couple of points. The state and the cities should not be spending hundreds of millions of dollars on stadiums for the professional sports teams. That money should either get returned to the taxpayers or spent on legitimate government responsibilities. There is no doubt that infrastructure maintenance is a legitimate government function, and bridge maintenance should be one of the higher priorities in that arena.
But we can talk about all of this later, when the bodies are recovered and we know why the bridge fell. Screeching at the top of our lungs in support of our favorite hobby horses is not only counterproductive, it’s a cynical exploitation of human tragedy. The Strib should be ashamed.

Recovery Suspended; Inspections Ordered

The fast-moving waters of the Mississippi River have hampered the recovery efforts at the collapsed bridge in the center of Minneapolis, and the operations have been suspended. Also, Governor Tim Pawlenty ordered fresh inspections of all state bridges with similar construction:

Divers were pulled from the murky and fast-moving waters of the Mississippi River Thursday afternoon before any bodies could be recovered from the wreckage of Wednesday’s I-35W bridge collapse.
At about the same time, Gov. Tim Pawlenty ordered an immediate inspection of all Minnesota bridges that have a design like the one that collapsed Wednesday in Minneapolis. Pawlenty said he did not know how many bridges have that design. …
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers lowered the water level of the Mississippi by about 1 foot today in an attempt to give emergency workers better access to vehicles at the site of the bridge. The initial plan called for divers to approach four submerged cars that were clear of the ruined bridge. But the current and debris didn’t allow divers to get close to those cars.
The water level was adjusted by opening some of the roller gates downstream at the Ford dam, said Shannon Bauer, a Corps spokesperson. The dam controls the amount of water — called a pool — in the stretch of river where the bridge fell.
The drawdown began to create some turbulence at the rescue site, so it was temporarily suspended. In the early afternoon, they continued to lower the water level by one more foot.

Actually, the Mississippi River has a lower level than normal anyway, thanks to a bit of a drought in the Upper Midwest. That won’t last, though; we’re expecting thunderstorms and steady rain this weekend, starting tomorrow night. If the rain comes down in sufficient volume and force, it could mean big problems for the recovery efforts in the river.
The Congressional delegation which returned to Minnesota overnight has pledged to gain funding for a quick rebuilding effort. The bridge formed part of the federal interstate system, and the state’s representatives united to request more than $100 million in emergency construction funds to get a fast start. Norm Coleman still warns that, even with emergency funding, it could take two years to replace the bridge and restore service to the core of the city.
While the number of confirmed dead remains at four, the number of injured has increased to 79. Police warn that a number of dead remain in the river, so we can expect bad news over the next few days. The number of missing has increased to 30, which sounds rather ominous, as that predicts what the final number of dead will be.
Until they can figure out how to beat the current, though, nothing can be determined. The normal current gets amplified as it passes through the debris, and it also creates eddies and patterns that put the divers in peril. They may have to raise some of the debris before the divers can get to the cars, but that will create all sorts of other dangers.
I’ll have more as it develops.
UPDATE: Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-MN) will introduce a bill tomorrow authorizing $250 million for the construction of a replacement bridge. (via The Corner)

It Shouldn’t Happen Anywhere

National Review extended a kind invitation for an essay about the Minneapolis bridge collapse, and they have already published it on their web site. “Into The River” looks at the dynamics of the collapse here in Minnesota and looks at the road ahead:

Nevertheless, Minnesotans already want to know how the unthinkable happened to one of its most critical traffic structures. The power of the Digital Age started showing itself in the first hours of the tragedy. News organizations found reports on prior bridge inspections on the Internet, one of which noted the bridge “has many poor fatigue details on the main truss and floor truss system.” Other reports came to light shortly afterwards, including more recent inspections that classified the bridge as “structurally deficient.”
State officials quickly clarified that engineers didn’t recommend any immediate action as part of those inspections, but the issue will not disappear quietly. Minnesotans have had a long-running debate over infrastructure funding. Two former Minnesota transportation officials appeared on local television to decry the neglect towards these systems over the last few years. The debate had mostly remained in the hallways of the capital, but we can expect a big political fight over this now, one that will involve tax policy and budget control as well.

As I wrote, this debate has mostly confined itself to the political class in Minnesota, but watch for a big debate about it now — and not just here. With 80,000 American bridges classified as structurally deficient, as was the one that collapsed here, every state will have to answer for its infrastructure maintenance … and Minnesota actually was better than most in that regard before this catastrophe.
Please read the entire essay, and let National Review know what you think.
UPDATE: Let’s get some links going to local bloggers today:

  • King Banaian takes a look at the new prominence of the Practice Freeway. [Correction: it was his co-blogger, Janet. Sorry!]
  • Fraters Libertas reports on an eyewitness account from one of our MOB pals.
  • Gary Gross covers today’s press conference and notes how effective Minnesota has been in maintaining its transportation infrastructure.
  • Our good friend Flash from Centrisity has photos from the scene.
  • My partner Mitch remembers the bridge and the beautiful view it afforded, even if it wasn’t the most beautiful of bridges.
  • Another MOB blogger, Muzzy, tells his personal story about the collapse.
  • Not exactly local, but Jazz and Ron at Middle Earth Journal — occasional and appreciated commenters here at CQ — take their normally clearheaded view of the politicization that appears to have already started.
  • Bush: Federal Response Will Be “Robust”

    President Bush made an obviously impromptu appearance just now to make a statement about the bridge collapse. He promised a “robust” federal response, not just in the recovery and investigation, but also in rebuilding the bridge. He didn’t spend much time talking about details, other than to say that the Secretary of Transportation has flown to Minneapolis to ensure the best possible coordination with state officials already on the ground.
    This shouldn’t require a huge effort in those regards. This hardly compares to Hurricane Katrina, after all. It’s a localized and comparatively small tragedy. It won’t require FEMA, but it will require the resources of the NTSB for the investigation, and that has to be coordinated now.
    Bush’s statement did emphasize one point that has understandably been missed while we focus on rescue and recovery, although my clear-thinking radio partner Mitch Berg has already blogged about it. This section of the 35W freeway is very significant to the businesses in Minneapolis, and the Mississippi River has almost as much economic significance. We need to be careful to build the replacement bridge properly, but it needs to get rebuilt quickly. Some estimates put the replacement out to 3-5 years, which would create a harsh impact on jobs and small businesses located in the city.
    Mayor Rybak is making a statement too, and he says, “Thank God this wasn’t worse.” Minnesotans are starting to finally grasp how bad this could have been — and how bad it might have been, had Minnesotans not kept themselves from panicking in those first few minutes.
    UPDATE: DoT Secretary Mary Peters is making a statement now. She praised the actions of the first responders and good samaritans, and pledged her efforts to support and coordinate the efforts to recover from the catastrophe. Peters also said that she has brought out highway-construction experts already to review what happened, and emphasized the need to replace the bridge quickly. She authorized the release of $5 million in emergency funds to Minnesota to address the traffic issues.

    Pawlenty: Experts Did Not Warn Of Collapse

    Tim Pawlenty just appeared on KSTP to answer questions about the bridge collapse yesterday afternoon. As I noted earlier, the Pioneer Press and other local news outlets have begun to report that the bridge had been rated as “structurally deficient”, which would normally have flagged it for higher-priority maintenance or possibly replacement. Governor Pawlenty told KSTP that the experts had not recommended either:

    Q: I understand that you’re waiting to hear from President Bush. What kind of federal help do you expect to receive?
    A: We’ve received offers of help from the federal government, and I’m sure that will take the form of cash, assistance, and personnel. We have federal officials already on site, and more coming. But we just want everybody to know across the country and across Minnesota that our thoughts and prayers are first and foremost with the families who have lost a loved one, somebody that was injured; we want them to know that we are thinking of them. We’re also proud of the first responders, bystanders, and good samaritans that helped out in the minutes and hours after this event. It was an amazing response. …
    [skipping silly exchange on personal impact of the images]
    Q: From your briefings with public safety officials, do they know yet — do they have a handle on the number of missing? We keep hearing 20, Mayor Rybak said it’s 20. What are you hearing?
    A: Well, we don’t know for sure. The best estimates we’re getting are — originally, we heard that it may be 20 to 50, now we’re hearing that it may be closer to 20. We don’t know for sure, it”s probably at least 20. It could be somewhat higher than that, Tom.
    Q: They’ve also lowered the confirmed death toll from 7 to 4. Are you aware of that, and if so, do you know why they’ve done that?
    A: I was just informed of that, but I was somewhat perplexed, because just last night, they had certified, or I should say confirmed, seven fatalities. I can’t explain why it would be reduced overnight. ….
    A: We had this bridge inspected in 2005 and 2006, and while there were some deficiencies noted, they did not call for closing or replacing the bridge immediately. This is a situation where had the engineers done that, obviously the bridge would have been closed. But that’s not the case. The designation that this bridge has is shared by 80,000 other bridges in the country, and some bridges even have a worse designation. These deficiencies did not rise to a level of closing the bridge or repairing or replacing it immediately, in the eyes of the experts who looked at it in the inspections.

    Obviously the contents of those inspections and the recommendations made will be the center of the focus for this investigation. If the inspectors missed the structural degradation that caused this collapse, then the state and federal DoTs will come under heavy fire. If the reports recommended action that did not get taken, the political leadership of both parties in Minnesota will be answering angry questions from their constituents. It sounds as though the lines are already being drawn.
    Governor Pawlenty warned in the interview that it would take quite a while to remove the debris from the river and to get a new bridge designed and approved. It will take longer than a year to replace the collapsed structure, which will mean long delays and heavy frustration with traffic here in the Twin Cities. Today, though, it looks like many people have opted to take a day off to give the state some time to adjust.

    Bridge Collapse Caught On Security Video

    UPDATE: Here’s the video (via Hot Air):

    CNN has the video from a security camera near the 35W bridge that catches the collapse. It shows it in the typical four-frames-per-second style of security video, but it quite clearly catches the sequence of the collapse.
    The bridge appears to break, as one might guess from the pattern of the rubble, not in the center but as the span goes over the water of the river. The center section drops straight down, and the video briefly shows the cars that went down with it. A few seconds later, that first third of the bridge follows it down. In that first couple of frames, the steel structure buckles dramatically.
    One point to note: it does not show the entire span of the bridge. The collapse could have started on the right of the camera, which is not shown. That would be the south end of the bridge; the video looks north across the river. So far, this has not been YouTubed, but if it does I’ll post it here.
    UPDATE: Here’s MnDOT’s picture at the edge of the collapse:

    UPDATE III: Paul from Wizbang correctly notes that the video looks south, not north, which can he determined by the 10th Street bridge in the view.

    Was The Bridge Deficient?

    Normally, in the wake of a catastrophe, the details become clear only slowly and fitfully. Last night we heard that the 35W bridge had passed all of its inspections and that the collapse completely surprised everyone. Today, the Pioneer Press reports that inspectors had warned of a problem with this particular bridge, although the state overall had done an excellent job in bridge maintenance:

    Bridge inspectors had noted structural problems over the years in the Interstate 35W bridge over the Mississippi River that collapsed Wednesday evening, but it was unclear whether obvious warning signs had been ignored. …
    In 2005, inspectors from the Minnesota Department of Transportation deemed the bridge “structurally deficient,” in data submitted to the Federal Highway Administration’s National Bridge Inventory.
    Inspectors gave the bridge a sufficiency rating of 50 percent on a scale of 0 to 100 percent. A rating of 50 percent or lower means the bridge might need to be replaced.
    The condition of I-beams, girders and other components called “structural members” was rated four on a scale of 0 to nine. A rating of 0 means failed, nine means excellent. Inspectors look at these for signs of distress such as cracking, deterioration, section loss and malfunction and misalignment of bearings. The deck received a rating of five and the substructure rating was six.

    The design of this particular bridge made its inspection an even greater necessity. It had a span of almost 500 feet with no struts. When it was built, the city did not want to impede river traffic; barges still carry agricultural goods south on the Mississippi River. Viewers of the television coverage will see that the newer bridge that paralleled the collapsed section had a different design, with a support in the center of the river, and one would expect the replacement to mimic that.
    That long span relied more heavily on the engineering of the steel supports, and for 40 years, it worked. Yet the 2001 study by the University of Minnesota noted “many poor fatigue details on the main truss and floor truss system”, the very portions on which the entire bridge rested. The same study also said that Minnesota probably would not have to replace the bridge in the near future. The Pioneer Press report suggests that later inspections reached a different conclusion, or at least gave a stronger warning of problems.
    State legislators expressed surprise at that news. Rep. Melissa Hortman (DFL-Brooklyn Park) noted that Minnesota’s Department of Transportation (MnDOT) never mentioned that to the state legislature. If MnDOT knew of a poor rating on this bridge, they apparently never considered it a high enough priority to ask for special funding for repairs.
    It’s a bit ironic, as Minnesota has a good record for bridge maintenance. The US Department of Transportation rated only 3% of Minnesota’s bridges as “structurally deficient”, which put us as the eleventh-best state in that efforts. Rhode Island, in contrast, has 23% of its bridges rated structurally deficient, and seventeen percent of Michigan’s bridges have that rating.
    More details will come in the days and weeks ahead. If someone ignored a warning on this, expect Minnesotans to demand some housecleaning.

    Death Toll To 9 As We Wait For Sunrise

    The morning after the bridge collapse in Minneapolis, authorities await sunrise to continue their efforts to search the wreckage for any unaccounted victims. By this time, most expect this to be a recovery rather than a rescue effort, and the death toll has risen to nine, and twenty people are known to be missing:

    Nine people were confirmed dead as of 4 a.m. today. Sixty were taken to hospitals and 20 people were still missing this morning. Authorities said they expected the death toll to rise.
    Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek told the Associated Press at about 1 a.m. today that all search efforts had been called off for the night and that searchers did not expect to find any survivors.
    “It’s dark, it’s not safe with the currents in the water and the concrete and rebar,” he said. “At this point it is a recovery effort.”

    The “missing” figure may underestimate the people left to be found in this collapse. Bridge collapses differ from some other catastrophes in that no manifest exists. The missing only get identified by people expecting to hear from family or friends. It means we will not know the extent of the human tragedy until later, perhaps days from now. It’s more like a tornado in that sense.
    Minneapolis-area residents face a more mundane issue as well: how do they get to work today? The 35W freeway is the major artery going through the center of Minneapolis. There are ways around it but nothing that has the same capacity. It will take years to replace this bridge, especially given the investigation that will have to take place to determine why it collapsed after only 40 years of service.
    And yet, knowing this town like I do, I know that few people will complain about any of it. No one has any thoughts for anything but the victims right now. No matter what inconveniences lay ahead, every single one of us who have driven on that bridge will know we could have been on it when it went down. A detour or two, even for the long time they will be necessary, will pale in comparison to the losses of our friends and neighbors.

    Pray For The Twin Cities

    One of the most-traveled freeways in the Twin Cities — a span over the Mississippi River — collapsed about an hour ago. At the time, the highway had bumper-to-bumper traffic in the middle of rush hour, and dozens of cars have gone into the river or been caught in the rubble:

    The Interstate Hwy. 35W bridge over the Mississippi River collapsed during the evening rush hour Wednesday, dumping at least eight cars and a truck into the water and onto the land below, creating a horrific scene of damage, fire, smoke, injuries, frantic rescuers and terrified motorists.
    It was not clear how many people might be hurt or killed, but witnesses said at least 20 cars were involved.
    The crumpled green wreckage of the bridge lay on the east bank of the river, and a huge section of concrete roadway lay on the west bank. Down below in the river gorge, rescue workers scrambled to help people on the roadway that now lay in the gorge. Fires burned and black smoke rose billowed the wreckage.

    I have spent the last half-hour finding my son, daughter-in-law, and granddaughter. They’re OK, and now we have to wait to see who isn’t. I’ll be updating this as more details become available.
    7:18 PM CT: No fatalities yet, but some of the injured have gone to Hennepin County Meical Center.
    7:25 – A safety engineer who had no involvement in the bridge noted that it had some minor cracking in 2001, but it had been given a clean bill of health both then and in 2006. The state had been doing some work on the deck, but nothing that should have disturbed the structure of the bridge.
    7:29 – A school bus for a youth group is on the bridge. The word is that some of them were injured, but that all of them made it out of the bus. The bus is adjacent to a truck whose cab is obviously crushed, and that looks very bad indeed.
    KSTP reports that the people on the bridge who were uninjured did not run off the bridge — they went from car to car to look for the injured and give them assistance.
    7:40 – At WCCO, a witness says that there are “quite a few deceased,” which doesn’t surprise me, considering the extent of the collapse. The link takes you to a slideshow of the collapse; I’m not sure of the source.
    7:45 – John Hinderaker notes that he’s been on that bridge hundreds if not thousands of times. I’ve been on it dozens of times myself; if you drive through Minneapolis, you can hardly avoid it. Michelle Malkin also notes that the Department of Transportation will have a press conference at 8:40 local time.
    I agree with John on another point — bridges like these don’t collapse in the US, especially when they’re only 40 years old. It’s hard to say what could have brought it down, but hopefully the DoT will have more information.
    7:53 – The choppers have been ordered out of the area; we’re going to get severe thunderstorms blowing through the city, right over the collapse. The timing could not possibly be worse. Rescue workers cannot operate in the river while lightning remains a danger.
    8:01 – HCMC is about to hold a press conference in a few moments. It sounds like they will have some word on injuries, and perhaps on fatalities, too. CNN apparently is reporting three deaths so far.
    8:07 – US Internet has unlocked their Wi-Fi in the Minneapolis area so that people can contact their families. Kudos to them for their community spirit.
    8:14 – One confirmed fatality at HCMC, six critical cases out of sixteen brought there. The one death was a drowning.
    8:19 – One thing that people need to keep in mind about the Twin Cities is how small they are, comparatively speaking to other major cities. Combined, the two cities only have a population of 650,000, and the entire metro area is only 2.5 million people. Given the likely number of people injured and perhaps killed in this tragedy, this will touch many, many families here in this area.
    8:30 – The DHS says they have no indication at all that this could be terrorism:

    The U.S. Department of Homeland Security in Washington said there was no indication of terrorism in the disaster.
    “There is no indication of a nexus to terrorism at this time,” department spokesman Russ Knocke said.

    I didn’t think it was. No one mentioned any explosions, and we’ve heard plenty from witnesses. I’d almost wonder if we had some sort of earthquake, or whether a barge hit one of the supports in the river.
    8:36 – Noah at Blanked Out was there; the bridge was right by his house. He said the bridge went down “so very slowly”. Glad Noah’s OK.
    9:01 – Still waiting for a DoT briefing. Our friends at the University of Minnesota Medical Center, where the First Mate has had three transplants, handled 33 patients with no fatalities, and most were walk-ins. So far, we’ve only heard one confirmed drowning, but with the number of cars in the river, I think we can expect more drownings.
    Also, Senator Norm Coleman spoke with the Secretary of Transportation, who says the last federal inspection of the bridge was in 2004. This bridge formed part of Interstate 35W, which means that the federal government has oversight over bridge maintenance as well.
    9:12 – Mayor R.T. Rybak told WCCO that six people have died. That number is still not confirmed, nor is anyone thinking it will be final.
    9:15 – Here is the abstract from the March 2001 report on the bridge, which can be seen here in its original state; note that the bridge did not have river supports, so the barge theory would not be applicable here (h/t CQ commenter LifeTrek). Interesting excerpt:

    Researchers monitored the strain gages while trucks with known axle weights crossed the bridge under normal traffic. Researchers then developed two-and three-dimensional finite-element models of the bridge, and used the models to calculate the stress ranges throughout the deck truss. The bridge’s deck truss has not experienced fatigue cracking, but it has many poor fatigue details on the main truss and floor truss system. The research helped determine that the fatigue cracking of the deck truss is not likely, which means that the bridge should not have any problems with fatigue cracking in the foreseeable future. As a result, Mn/DOT does not need to prematurely replace this bridge because of fatigue cracking, avoiding the high costs associated with such a large project.

    One construction worker remains unaccounted, WCCO reports now.
    9:34 – James Lileks is keeping an eye on the updates as well, and contributing his own unique voice to the coverage. Best point: “Sixty children on the bus. Sixty children alive. There’s chance, and there’s miracles. Take your choice.”
    9:36 – Did I tell you how I first found out about this? My father called me from California, where he caught the breaking news bulletin. That set off a round of frantic calls, trying to find my son and his family, who live nearby and use that bridge often. It took a very long half-hour to find them, but it ended well for us. We’re praying for those who won’t be as lucky.
    9:38 – One more point about the construction work that was being done — it’s very routine stuff for the Twin Cities. We joke out here that we have two seaons, winter and Road Construction. The ravages of ice, snow, gravel, and salt have to be remedied on a regular basis. That kind of work would almost certainly not have created the kind of failure we saw today.
    10:08 – Norm Coleman’s on KSTP now. As soon as he found out about it, he started reaching out to the DoT and NTSB, and making arrangements to come out here. He wants to see a “full forensic review” into the collapse immediately. He confirmed that the 2004 inspection showed no problems, and that the annual reviews since raised no red flags. The NTSB will handle the federal review; it’s the same agency that investigates airplane crashes.
    10:27 – The first responder press conference is going on now. Nothing unexpected; they have a lot of resources applied to the crisis, and gave out a number of ways to access it. They still think they can find survivors, but “the likelihood is getting slim”. They also have to watch that debris floating downriver doesn’t damage other bridges that do have supports in the water.
    10:34 – Seven people confirmed dead so far, and they expect that number to increase. KSTP has a former transportation secretary saying that 40-50% of the bridges here in Minnesota have significant deficiencies. On that happy note, I’ll call it a night.