Is Rice Right?

Condoleezza Rice told reporters this morning that the time has arrived for a Palestinian state. She defended the launch of the latest American-sponsored peace conference by asserting that the administration had “better things to do than invite people to Annapolis for a photo op,” and that the conference could make real progress towards resolving the decades-long standoff:

Secretary of State Condoleezza said Monday it was “time for the establishment of a Palestinian state,” and described Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts as the most serious in years.
An international peace conference expected to take place in Annapolis, Md., in November has to be substantive, Rice said at a news conference with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.
“We frankly have better things to do than invite people to Annapolis for a photo op,” she said.
Israelis and Palestinians, Rice added, are making their “most serious effort” in years to resolve the conflict.
“Frankly, it’s time for the establishment of a Palestinian state,” she added.

Right now, it doesn’t even look like the time for the conference, let alone the establishment of the state. Mahmoud Abbas and Ehud Olmert have begun squabbling over a preliminary document for the conference. Abbas wants a detailed agreement on several of the most contentious points, while Olmert wants a more generalized set of principles on the table before negotiations begin. Abbas has threatened to skip the conference if the matter is not settled, which would make the entire exercise moot.
However, Rice has a point. The problem with prior attempts at estabilishing the state on the West Bank that most people agree will have to come to resolve the conflict was a lack of Palestinian incentive for that solution. The Palestinians wanted it all, Israel included, which made any attempt at a deal worthless. Many of them still do, and the question will be whether Abbas is one of them.
Abbas has a different set of problems now than Yasser Arafat did. Arafat held unquestioned power while he ran the PLO; not even Hamas dared to seriously challenge him for it. That came in part because Arafat wanted what Hamas wanted, which was the destruction of Israel. Hamas suspects that Abbas may not be as willing to be an all-or-nothing leader, and the Palestinians agreed, at least in large part during their elections.
Since Hamas conducted a coup in Gaza, however, Abbas has an opportunity to work with moderates within the more secular Fatah movement. He could strengthen his position by bringing in billions of dollars in aid by agreeing to the Palestinian state in the West Bank. If the conditions are favorable enough, the Gazans will reject Hamas and finish them as a political force in order to share the wealth.
Will Abbas take the deal? Perhaps, perhaps not. But Rice is correct in saying that this may be the most propitious moment for peace since 1948, if he does.

26 thoughts on “Is Rice Right?”

  1. Ed, it sounds as if you picked up some of the “good stuff” out west. No matter how many times you run it, the old story about the frog ferrying the scorpion across the stream holds true. I used to have dreams of a peaceful Holy Land, but then my head cleared.
    By the way, Fox News had a headline up a couple of days ago, “Rice Appeals to Turkey”, and I couldn’t quite figure it out. Turkeys find all sorts of grain appealing. Or maybe they were suggesting that one of the big Dems had a crush on Condi?

  2. A Palestinian state in the West Bank has to pass the Jordanians first, and they have a history with the Palestinians that bodes against having such an entity next door to them. Should King Abdullah agree: perhaps.
    But, the Palestinians have shown time and time again that they are fatally married to the violent overthrow and destruction of Israel, and likewise have shown that when it comes to taking care of their own, they don’t. They have had nearly 60 years to get their house in order.
    Not a good basis for giving them yet another chance to suck off the teat of a guilt-ridden West.
    Instability in the region has continued for decades not because of Israel slowly shrinking its borders and giving carrot after carrot to the Palestinians, but because the Palestinians in the region have known and shown nothing but violence from the youngest ages for nearly 60 years.
    I favor a UN Mandate once again in the region.
    Let the UN put their money where their mouth is.
    A multi-national force spearheaded by the French, and having Morrocco, Jordan, even Turkey, involved on the ground as well — setting up in the West Bank, and methodically removing the thugs, Hamas, and the many caches of weapons as the primary goal. At the same time setting up civic governance in all the towns. Then compelling the Palestinians to tend to infrastructure, making the Palestinians solely responsible for running water, electricity, conduct of governance and all the rest. Then, and only then, should we look toward any sort of establishment of any Palestinian state in the region.
    The idea that those in Gaza will flock to the West bank rings true insofar as having members of Hamas set up shop in the West Bank and “doing a Gaza” on the West Bank. Even under a new mantel, Fatah is flawed and has a nearly 50 year history of refusing to take care of Palestinians, opting instead to act as a quasi-national band of thugs.

  3. This idea is so bad, the timing is so stupid and the fact that this latest State Dept proposal is going to crash and burn that it’s not worth the energy to get upset about.

    What is it about lame duck President’s that they want to spent their time and remaining political capital on a fruitless Middle East “Peace Process”?
    Especially, when it is so clear that what the Middle East needs in more war, before peace is possible. The Iranian Mullah regime needs to be destroyed. Assad’s Baathist regime needs to be destroyed. This will do wonders for the prospects for peace.

  4. Let me see: To the North you have Hezballah; Hamas to the South; and Syria with Fatah to the East.
    Fully three-quarters of those forces opposing and flanking Israel are direct/indirect clients of Tehran and this is a ripe climate for a peace conference with whom?
    ROFL.

  5. I was prepared ahead of time to see some of the usual voices from the Right coming out in opposition to this. While the creation of a permanen Palestinian state which could somehow find a way to live in relative peace with Isreal as a neighbor is obviously a desirable goal, politics can certainly find a way to poison it here. There are still more than enough peoplel in the Wolfowitz Croney Club who know all too well which side their bread is buttered on. Stability between the Israelies and the Palestinians takes away a big stick in foreign policy.
    I can definitely see how there are people right here at home who see far more value in bombing the crap out of the Palestinians than in making peace with them. (This list will generally encompass people who are simultaneously in favor of bombing Syria and starting a war with Iran.)
    A two state solution to what is, in my opinion, a horrible situation that’s simply not our problem, would be great. But it seems there are more than enough people on both sides of the ocean who have a vested interest in keeping the Palestinians and the Israelies at each other’s throats. I’m not hopeful that this will happen any time soon.

  6. Building on Jabba the Tutt’s last paragraph, I’d go so far as to say that the “peace process” is one of the biggest obstacles to peace in the Middle East.
    The “peace process” keeps interfering with war proceeding to one side being defeated, which is a necessary precondition for a genuine peace being built. Instead, it keeps protecting the loser suffering defeat, so that side can regroup, rearm, and try again later.

  7. Palestinian Sympathry Fatigue precludes anything but perhaps this:
    Official Recognition from all 22 members of the Arab League and Palestine
    of the State of Israel. This recog should include mention of Israel as a Jewish
    state, and the establishment of Embassies, ambassidorial exchanges – the whole thing.
    Egypt and Jordan should acknowledge their past failures of leadership with the Palestinian people. Failures like launching wars of aggression against a democratic member of the UN. And losing them. Then, cutting Peace deals with Israel – leaving their people stuck in misery in refugee camps for years, their failure to assimilate their own people into loyal, productive citizens.
    Egypt, Jordan and Syria should pay reparations to the Palestinians, for causing all their grief and heartache. This could include land grants, citizenship and of course cash.
    Palestine should renounce control of the Temple Mount and return the entire site to Israel. Jerusalem is only the 3rd Holiest site in Islam. For Judaism it’s their only Holy site.
    The Right of Return must be declared the misguided myth that it is. After all, 8 million Germans haven’t really said much, killed much, bombed much or protested much over the ‘right of return’ to Danzig or the lost provinces of Deutschland’s failed ‘Drang Nach Osten’ .
    Financial aid could be offered in return for Palestine’s creation of a tolerant, egalitarian society, with a free, uncensored press, open, periodic, transparent elections, a nat’l treasury under public scrutiny, a judicary independent of the police, military or Sha Ria Law. Outlaw militias, gender apartheid and honor killings.

  8. Numerous objections have been offered against establishing a Palestinian state with almost unsurmountable pre-conditions being required prior to taking the necessary steps by those who object to formation of such a state.
    While Israel’s security must (and it will) be guaranteed it seems to me that state is simply using an age old and very familiar negotiating tactic to delay and gain an upper hand in the final outcome.
    Israel, get on with it, give Palestinian’s a free state just as you were granted one in 1947. This might actually bring a more peaceful climate to the region and ultimately pre-empt your nuking half your neighbors.

  9. Yes, the proto-Palestinian State in Gaza has been most successful, hasn’t it?
    Funny how it’s alway outside influences being blamed for the poor choices made by the Palestinians themselves.

  10. I see we have our first new neo-Nazi posting on this thread (Jazz). Yes, the evil Joos and their neo-con sympathizers are behind all the Palestinian violence. The entire situation is merely a product of the worldwide Jewish conspiracy and the only solution is to create a single “multiethnic state, i.e, a Judenrein Palestine.
    It is laughable that people like Jazz pretend to bleed for the “Palestinian People” when Israel defends itself but become silent when another country, i.e, Lebanon, destroys a Palestinian refugee camp, displacing 50,000 and killing and wounding hundreds of civilians as they put down some terrorists. To Jazz et al, it’s all about the Jews.
    There is only one solution to this problem. Egypt and Jordan must re-incorporate Gaza and the West Bank back into their nations. The Palestinians have time and again demonstrated that they lack the characteristics to run their own nation and create a society based on peace and justice instead of thuggery and murder.
    This administration has embarked on the same fool’s errand that Carter, Bush 41 and Clinton I have pursued in the past. The Palestinians don’t want peace; they seek the destruction of Israel and the massacre of its people. How many times do they have to say it before we take them at their word?

  11. I remember how the Bush White House ripped Clinton in 2001 for trying to force a Palestinian solution when the Palestinians weren’t ready. It was different then, to be sure, with Arafat still around, etc., but it was also without Hamas running amok in Gaza, etc.. A state is necessary for a long-term solution, but with Hamas as it is right now and the propped-up weakness of Abbas this seems so ill-timed as to be tone deaf.

  12. Jerry says “There is only one solution to this problem. Egypt and Jordan must re-incorporate Gaza and the West Bank back into their nations.”
    That is a first thought sure – alas – West Bankers and Gaza enjoy a 91% literacy rate as compared to Jordan and Egypt’s 48%.
    It’ll be a tough sell for an absolute monarchy or a president for life to welcome in folks who have a history of voting in real elections to join in with the fake old school Soviet election style.
    History presents a very different example. Compare a map of Germany in 1914 to one of today. Trying to make the case for returning turf that has been German since Roman times will earn a laughing lecture about atates who repeatedly attack their neighbors and repeatedly lose.
    Anexxation, relocation – with the Palestinians failed former leaders in Egypt and Jordan paying the bill is the only true solution.

  13. While I have high admiration for Ms. Rice, I do not agree with her at all on the Palestinian issue.
    Ms. Rice, and Ohmert are assisting Israel to commit suicide. Abbas is not a truthful leader, alraedy sharing money given by us with Hamas; alraedy talking about reuinting with Hamas to do what? Kiiling more Jews, circling the State of Israel like sharks, waiting for the right moment to start a war, led by Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas etc.. I will never understand why there has to be a palestinian state, when history never provided one before, and is only used by the Arabs to bury their own shortfalls, a bargaining chip.
    Ohmert should be relieved, and another more bold leader needs to be selected; before it is too late.

  14. Courtney:
    Your supposition that the Palestinians wouldn’t like living in a monarchy or authoritarian state based on their literacy is a straw man. Perhaps you are unaware that Germany had the most literate society in Europe, if not the planet in 1933. That didn’t stop them from voting for either Hitler or the Communists in large numbers
    These literate Palestinians “chose” the Islamonazis of Hamas over the mere thugs of the PLA. They are satisfied with either as long as they promise to kill Jews.

  15. Hi Jerry –
    Very True. Not considering The Palestinians point of view at all, Reunification makes a very tough sell for presidents for life and corrupt royalty in Ray Bans to welcome in Palestinians who are a bit more worldly, than either of these despotdoms citizens are.
    Doubtful either of these petty tyrants would want Palestinians because of this.
    The Palestinians have only themselves to thank for the West’s affliction with Palestinian Sympathy Fatigue. Perhaps all this ‘Peace’ talk biz is just a smokescreen to further isolate the HAMAS until they act out again and the Israelis can do a Lebanon Refugee Camp style clean up in Gaza.

  16. I think this conference is less about a Palestinian state and more about the runup to our dealing with Iran. The improvement in Sunni fortunes in Iraq helps make it possible. The Israeli offer of East Jerusalem is daring, but conceivably worth it if it helps create a permanent peace, which is only possible if the Sunni governments will it.
    To deal with Iran, we have to make certain the oil China receives from Iran is replaced (Saudi Arabia?). I think the bargain on offer is “Get behind a real Palestine / Israel peace agreement if you expect us to keep you safe from Iran”.

  17. It’s not as if there were any direction that opinion or policy could take that would lead to sanity or peace. We all know the insanity of creating another terror based state, but still, how insane is the present situation where Israel supplies the electrical power to Gaza, and is criticized because it might turn off that power? How insane is it that Israel has any governing responsibility at all on the West Bank? So, the present state of affairs is nuts, and every option for change either has no chance of working or is just as crazy.
    Even the recent history of the region is insane, not just the bias, the real facts. How is it that Jordan lost the rights to claim the West Bank, and those rights were awarded to a terrorist organization? Has that ever happened in all of human history?
    It is true that Rice is trying to stop Hamas from taking control of all of the Arab territories west of the Jordan, but, (more insanity), Fatah is going to accomplish this? Don’t think so.
    This is mostly a show for the Arab world that the US is the honest broker as opposed to another occupier. Because it’s not like the political class of the Arab world really wants a peace to emerge–peace being defined as any agreement resulting in cessation hositility. They pretty much need the hostility to keep power–deflecting the rage and backwardness of their population towards the Jews. Again, how else can this be described other than being more insanity?
    And if the anti-Israel faction of the State Department had its way and Israel no longer existed, what would follow would not be a calming of the Arab world but an explosion of violence and civil wars trying to redefine the articial boundaries of the Post WWI treaties–the Kurds fighting Turkey, Lebanon fighting Syria, Iran fighting the Saudis, civil wars in Egypt and Jordan, Sunnis vs. Shia, Wahabists fighting the Westernized governments–did I even mention Iraq?
    Okay, I’d better go for a walk now. Maybe get some chocolate.

  18. Barak already offered Arafat the farm. Everything but the right of return which any fool can see would be commiting suicide for Israel. Arafat couldn’t say yes. There may be any number of reasons Arafat wouldn’t take that deal but the deal can get no better and the circumstances have certainly not improved for a negotiated settlement. Most of the players we want to engage in this negotiation are a big part of the problem, not the solution. This is, as all the other attempts have been, a fool’s errand.

  19. Some fantastic ideas in this thread. I do follow Jabba the Tutt’s thoughts though, regarding preconditions to a successful resolution.
    There are way too many terrorist states with their tendrils in the dysfunctional Palestinian proto-state. Way too many Islamic nations unwilling to even allow Israel’s name on a map. Way too much deference given to the clown’s in the latest UN “human rights” organization dedicated to the demonization of Israel.
    Not one reasonable plan offered here would be accepted by the Palestinians or their masters and instigators. Cold Warrior 415 has a great idea of a multi-national force, and though I doubt we could ever find nations with the political will to do it, it’d be great, except, who are the non-thugs that would remain? None have yet to step forward or announce their position.
    So we are left to consider relocating the entire mess. A variety of homes, and objections, have been mentioned here.
    How about the poor poor pitiful Pals (nod to Meryl Yourish for the moniker) being adopted by all the nations that have voted for Israel’s destruction at the UN? Do a proportional calculation based on the respective populations, and off they go.
    Won’t happen, I know, but, contrary to one odd comment in this thread, the Muslim world is the party wedded to this conflict, and they won’t let it go.

  20. Naftali says “How is it that Jordan lost the rights to claim the West Bank?”
    The 1996 Peace deal Jordan cut with Israel. Jordan gave up her the WB and her own people.

  21. Courtneyetc.
    Actually, according to Mark Steyn, which means, to me, according to what actually occurred, Jordan refused to get involved in the 1973 War and was punished by the Arab league. It was then that the PLO had a delegate to the UN and Arafat became a ‘statesman’. The UN is practically doing the same thing with Hezbollah. People use the Orwellian metaphor for most of his–I think Lewis Carroll is just as appropriate.

  22. I have lived in Middle East and I can tell you for a fact ,the Arab league has no interest in making peace with Israeli.
    Israeli is the perfect boggeyman the Arab elites use to keep there masses distracted and united .
    Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia,Iran,and Syria are sitting on a powder keg of a massive population of young and uneducated men that are under or unemployed and ripe for revolution. Visit the oil rich Arab nations and you will notice that huge Caste system set up with the Palestinians at the bottom of the heap.
    The Palestinians are treated poorly and worked like dogs.The Arab elites consider them useful pawns that can be little dangerous .
    As for the unifying Jordan with the West Bank. Does anyone recall the Jordan Army driving the PLO and there refugees out of Jordan !Israel would be foolish to give the PLO and other terrorist groups a foothold deep into Israel.
    Condi Rice is desperate for some type of legacy at Israel’s expense . She is a Fool !

  23. Retarded, Ed.
    Sorry, just said that to bug you. I know you don’t like the retard word since it’s not much of an argument. So I’ll redirect it.
    Retarded, Condi.

Comments are closed.