The debacle continues in Pakistan, as police beat and arrested lawyers protesting the emergency rule of Pervez Musharraf in Islamabad today. The Islamist party leader Liaqat Baloch estimates that 500 members have been imprisoned, a fate he narrowly avoided by fleeing Lahore:
Legions of police firing tear gas and swinging batons clashed with lawyers Monday as security forces across Pakistan blockaded courts to quash protests against President Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s declaration of a state of emergency. At least 350 were detained.
In the biggest gathering, about 2,000 lawyers congregated at the High Court in the eastern city of Lahore. As lawyers tried to exit onto a main road to stage a rally in defiance of a police warnings not to violate a ban on demonstrations hundreds of officers stormed inside.
Police swung batons and fired tear gas shells to disperse the lawyers, who responded by throwing stones and beating police with tree branches. The protesters shouted “Go Musharraf Go!”
Despite the obvious preparation Musharraf made in issuing the emergency order, the disorder has prompted some chaos. Musharraf himself became the object of a rumor that he had been deposed in a countercoup. He spoke with Reuters at the presidential building to laugh off the suggestion:
But rumours in several Pakistani cities this morning suggested he had been detained by members of his own staff angry at the clampdown.
Gen Musharraf quickly laughed off the suggestions. “It is a joke of the highest order,” he told the Reuters news agency from the Presidency building in Islamabad today.
The West appeared slow to respond on Saturday, but amplified their criticism yesterday. Both the US and the UK announced publicly that aid to Pakistan would come under review, a warning that cash and other aid would shortly stop. Condoleezza Rice demanded a return to democratic processes and elections, but also said that counterterrorism remained a high priority.
The situation has turned ugly, and perhaps the best one can hope to see is the war against the Islamists turn serious in the border provinces. Unfortunately, Musharraf has probably enhanced the Islamists’ credibility in his seizure of power and elimination of the independent judiciary. He may have thrown gasoline on a fire already out of his control, gambling that putting the military in firm control of the political process will lead to a stronger fight against the rebels. He might laugh off coup rumors at the moment, but I doubt he’ll sleep easily at night for a long time.
While perhaps a little trite or even juvenile, all I can say about this situation is, “This sucks.”
I don’t know what Musharaff thinks he’s playing at. I can appreciate the fact that he’s got a serious problem with islamofascist terrorism on his hands, but it seems to me that imposing martial law is not the best way to deal with it no matter how amusing the spectacle of lawyers being beaten may be. I can only hope that the average Pakistani will continue to support Musharaff over the islamofascists who want him overthrown.
What the hell are we supposed to do now? We either continue to support Musharaff even though he’s proving to be a despot or pull the plug on him and hope to God that he isn’t overthrow by islamic fundamentalists who will then have nukes in their possession. This might just spark a mini-World War III with India, which must be watching developments across the border with a very nervous eye.
Let’s just hope that the Congress doesn’t decide that this is a good time to pass a resolution condemning Pakistan for something they did a couple of centuries ago.
I’d be suprised if the American government does more than harrumph in public over these developments. Promoting “Democracy” is out, “Stability” and “Cooperation” are back in.
I’m no fan of military rule, but let’s face a few facts here. Things were not really going marvelously in Pakistan the way it was. The Islamists have been pushing and pressing to gain power there for a long time, and while they did not have control, they were also not out of the game. Musharaff is taking a stand again the same enemy we are fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq, and at least his military takeover was in his own country.
It is also a fact that there is likely no GOOD outcome in that region, and we are stuck with varying degrees of bad outcomes. Musharaff’s junta, bad as it may be, it still better than a takeover of a nuclear arsenal by the Islamists.
Lawyers beaten, tear-gassed, and arrested? Such a spectacle leaves me with decidedly “mixed emotions.” 😉
“I’m no fan of military rule, but let’s face a few facts here. Things were not really going marvelously in Pakistan the way it was.”
Now if we could only install a friendly secular military dictator in Iraq who could keep things running smoothly we’d be set.
Without stability there can be no democracy.
Why did Musharaff choose this time to crack down?
The Taliban and Islamists in Waziristan and elsewhere have made it clear that they will go after him and the Islamabad government regardless of the outcome of the elections, they have also made it abundantly clear that they will go after Bhutto, who is now back in Dubai, “recovering” from her welcoming experience, with no expressed intent to return to Pakistan in the near future.
The Islamists in the border provinces have been getting pummeled, and have begun in earnest to move into the cities all across Pakistan to raise holy hell, as they can no longer simply cross over into Afghanistan to refresh, re-arm, and regroup.
And then there is a rather large group of Pakistani’s who are of a Marxist bent, mostly Pakistan Peoples Party members (and often Bhutto supporters) but also belong to a conglomeration of other leftist parties. [If you look at the distribution of career fields in Pakistan, lawyers are a very large group, over-educated, under employed, and each trying to become a leader of some party or faction or even of the government or Parliament, a restive bunch to say the least.]
And then there is is Nawaz Sharif, once Prime Minister, a Kashmiri, a big proponent of an “Islamic Bomb,” head of the Pakistan Muslim League, who has been involved in all sorts of schemes over the years, to include a gutting of Pakistan’s frail Constitution, adding a few Amendments under his term as Prime Minsiter that made members of Parliament 100% loyal to their Parties by law, and not permit them to vote for any other party’s programs as such would be illegal, unless the party chairs agreed beforehand…and…an Amendment that would make the position of Prime Minister essentially Prime Minister for Life…preventing a President or even Parliament to dismiss the PM or even raise a vote of no confidence.
Bhutto’s return was supposed to be the cement that helped bridge the upper class, the right and moderate left and the middle class against a common threat, the Islamists.
Bhutto’s decision to leave Pakistan and head for Dubai again pretty much signalled to her Pakistan Peoples Party that her return either was premature, or that her willingness to work alongside Musharaff was nothing but a political stunt. In any case, Bhutto’s position as any sort of head of the Pakistan Peoples Party is now in much jeropardy….she is out of touch, out of power, and out of the country…and the lawyers who surrounded the Supreme Court, for example, are angry at Musharaff, angry at Bhutto, and angry that their dreams of becoming part of the ruling party elite in Pakistan are now once again on hold.
OK, in light of all of that, and Musharaff’s willingness to go after Taliban remnants, Islamists and jihadis all across Pakistan, and meeting with initial successes in a way not imagined possible by those same remnants, Islamists and jihadis, suddenly there is this orchestrated chaos all across Pakistan.
Musharaff is supposed to do what?
If he were of the mold of so many former Pakistani leaders, he’d grab the money and head for London and a nice house in Mayfair or Belgravia, and start an opposition party of his own.
Instead he has chosen to stand his ground.
And for this he is reviled here in the U.S.?
If only we had shown the kind of hard-nosed realism in Uzbekistan as we’re showing in Pakistan. Eventually, our crazed obsession with liberalizing the world will cost us our tenuous working relationship with Pakistan. China will prove to be a far less niggling, far more reliable ally and supporter.
“Now if we could only install a friendly secular military dictator in Iraq who could keep things running smoothly we’d be set.”
That might be a preferable outcome to several other possibilities. The last time it was tried there the military ruler turned out to be a Bathist monster, so he had to be taken out. But even at that, Saddam managed to keep the lid on for a long, long time. I suspect he might still be there enjoying the good life had he not taken up the idea of acquiring the ability to threaten the rest of the world. If his madness had been kept inside Iraq, though the Iraqi people would have suffered greatly, the rest of the world would not have cared much.
“Don’t tase me, sahib!”
Sorry, I couldn’t resist!
Seriously, I have to agree with Mike above that there are probably no good outcomes. Musharraf may be a bastard, but he’s our bastard, comparatively speaking. Realpolitik comes to the fore.
Democracy is overrated, if the result is that the people choose theocracy. Better a dictatorship than Islamist fanatics with nukes who are ready to martyr themselves and get in the express line to go see Allah. MAD doesn’t work with folks like that.
The beating lawyer part almost makes up for the breach of the Constitution and the imposition of martial law.
When he mentioned he was preventing the suicide of the country, he meant as a result of placating the West…quite simply his plan is:
1. martial law
2. full and complete destruction of free press
3. immediate and comprehensive peace terms with Taliban and combined extremist groups (i.e. the status quo in the autonomous regions pre-2001)
4. redistribute resources to key military leadership to maintain current junta
5. hunker down to weather the loss of some western (mostly US) military and other aid (but not, interestingly enough, aid for counter terrorism)
6. deal with Bhutto to place her as nominal figurehead (President?_
Martial law? Well, yes, to prevent wholesale chaos in the streets.
Destruction of the free press? Seems that all the major Pakistani dailies are still up and running and available over the net as well.
Peace terms with the Taliban? Not. Unless leaving the most of them along the roadside at room temperature is a means to get them to accept peace.
Redistribute income to the military? Seems Ms. Bhutto was drummed out of the country two out of the last three times because she, as a progressive, decided that national treasury was her personal account.
Hunker down? Sure. They will. When our foreign policy towards Pakistan is the result of polling, from among a population who for the most part can’t find Karachi on a world map, Pakistan has no need to feign loyalty with such an “ally.”
Deal with Bhutto? The Lady from Radcliffe has pretty much shown the quality of her salt. Instead of using the attempt on her life as a bully pulpit to convince Pakistani’s that they all, all of them, face a very real threat from the Taliban and Islamists and jihadis, she takes off to Dubai to wage her emigre opposition once again, leaving those left behind to figure it out for themselves.
Clyde, you make some excellent points.
We need to remember that we really don’t have all of the facts and that most of what we’re saying about Pakistan is out of ignorance. (Who here trusts the MSM reporting?)
I will add, though, that one glance at a map shows why radical Islam is interested in taking control of Pakistan. Afghanistan may be too hot at the moment, and so Pakistan would be a handy refuge … plus a nicely situated base for worldwide operations.
Regarding democracy …
I don’t think Pakistan is ready. A necessary ingredient for democratic government is a large middle class, where people have “things” and therefore pay attention because they have a stake in making the system work.
Pakistan is not there yet. A quarter of its population (40 million or so) is below the poverty level, and the annual per capita income is only around $2,000. In other words, there are a lot of very poor people who are uneducated and desperate. The uneducated and the desperate generally do not make good voters in a democracy.
(Heck, OUR population almost elected Gore. At least an earlier generation was bright enough to dump Carter after four years.)
I can’t help but remember what happened to Iraq after the Shah was dumped. Do we want to go down that road with Pakistan? I think not.
There are no good choices for Pakistan, but better a stable dictator than chaos, I think.
Maybe Obama had the right idea of invading Pakistan?
Lawyers rioting in the streets, being beaten and gassed by the police? Am drooling over the possibility of pictures!
Hey coldwarrior415, you misunderstand me. I am pro-Bush etc, and was basically pointing out Pakistan’s only real option right now, and that is to preserve itself and the fickle West be damned.
Basically, we now continue with the war on terror without a key ally. Only the other hand, some basic choices now become a bit easier…namely, the ability of our forces to bomb and interdict Taliban/AQ forces inside Pakistan at will without worrying about destabilizing our “ally”. As a Canadian with buddies over in Afghanistan, this is no small bit of good news.
Maybe Obama had the right idea of invading Pakistan?
Invasion of Pakistan? I suspect the Iranians, Indians, and Chinese may take care of that part for us, especially if chin-strap bearded religious nutjobs get their hands on any nukes.
Conversely, if the above countries are either unable or unwilling to invade, and we aren’t able to spirit out or neutralize the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, any potential Taliban victory in Pakistan will only last as long as it takes sub-launched ICBM’s to take out every single military and economic target of significance in that country.
The Taliban is obviously enamored of a 7th Century religion. However, those turbaned throwbacks apparently still don’t understand that the West’s patience is not limitless, and it may soon oblige them with a 7th Century lifestyle to match.
According to reports out this morning, the anti-teorrism funding we are providing to Pakistan is still ongoing with no move toward stopping those funds. There has also been a lot more coordination with the Pak military over the past few months regarding the border areas. Still no US forces officially allowed on the ground, but the bad guys in Waziristan are under pressure they have not previously felt, from both sides of the border. A good thing.
As for the Canadians out in Afghanistan…the major reason why I watch the National and other reporting on Canadian television. Wish the US press would pick up on this.
One of the difficulties in all of this is that the media doesn’t clearly identify the goals of the protestors. In fact, the protestors themselves are not clearly identified. The latest AP story refers to them as activists, rights workers and lawyers. So we assume they are all “good guys.”
Well … one of the groups protesting is Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which is led by Imran Khan.
And what does PTI want? It wants Pakistan to become “a self- reliant modern Islamic Republic.” Note the words “Islamic Republic.” That does not bode well.
Regarding terrorism, PTI says, “The present campaign against terrorism runs the risk of polarizing the world and raising the specter of a clash of ideologies.” That, too, does not bode well.
Here are some of PTI’s specific goals as mentioned on its Web site:
“Promote regional peace with all neighboring countries based on sovereign equality, mutual benefit and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.”
“Pursue our political and economic interests more proactively.”
“Consolidate further the close traditional friendship with the Peoples Republic of China by substantially increasing cooperation in commerce, trade, and security areas”
“Actively promote unity and closer economic and security ties among Islamic States, in particular with our neighbours Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.”
“Support efforts for rapid return to normalcy in Afghanistan by strengthening the unique and close relations with Afghanistan.”
“Seek improvement of relations with Russia and enhance cooperation for mutual benefit.”
Regarding the United States, the PTI says it wants to “(e)establish a new paradigm of mutually beneficial relations with the USA based on shared interests and common values.” Not sure what that means.
I think President Musharraf has cause for concern … and so do we.
Well, if you can’t beat the terrorists, then you may as well pick a fight with lawyers. Maybe his next step in preparing to take on the terrorists can be to round up school children and puppies.
Well, Pakistan is just following the lead of Generalissimo George W Bush, who in 2004 imprisoned all opponents, all lawyers, disbanded Congress and the Supreme Court, and declared himself dictator for life, whereupon he cancelled the November 2004 elections and is now ruler for life ruling under diktat.
(/lib fantasy).
Funny how the real events differ from the foamings of libnuts’ imaginations.
If I was Bhutto I would be hightailing it out of pakistan myself. My take is that her reception is an indication that civil war is on the horizon and General Musharraf is geting ready to give the radical islamists what they want.
I am getting the impression that in pakistan as with the mideast, in general, too many people have nothing to do. So what do they do?
They like to fight.
Look at Dubai? Is anyone fighting there? No. Prosperity brings peace when the wealth is managed and used for building civilization through infrastructure like education (secular), roads, electricity, water, industry, etc.
General Musharraf is managing the best he can of a bad situation that is getting uglier by the day.
The radicals want a fight and I see the blood running deep in Pakistan.
And I agree with Carol, something has to be done with Saudi Arabia. The funny thing about Saudi Arabia is if Bush wanted to invade that place he would most likely have most of the American public behind him.
I have not forgot about 9/11.
My take is a whole lot closer to ColdWarriors. His postings read like a lot of the best of the assements I used to read in another job environment.
Quibbles with a few things here. So far as I have been able to tell India has been playing this all very low key an with good reason. First they have enough AQ inspired stuff at home on their plate to deal with. AQ as usual is trying to fly it under the banner of Pak aggression over Kashmir and India simply is buying it.
In fact from what I have been seeing from that quarter is fairly sympathetic to the plight of Pakistan and no trying to use the moment for advantage on their part.
Internally in Pak I see a lot of chess piece power plays going on, but the sheer number of opposing player allows noting to gel with any consequence for now and it’s all loose knit almost ad hoc coalitions with not much to bind them together.
With their willingness to not go shoulder to shoulder against AQ and the Taliban, leaves an impression that they don’t consider the threat as overwhelming as it is being trumpeted on the world stage.
The Pak military seemed from the reports I read tried to squeeze the toothpaste tube at the time the training camps all emptied out with some saber rattling of pending strikes on them to shift AQ the the T out to the area of Tora Bora and then the military shut the door behind them leaving a large number stuck an Tora Bora and remnants to be cleaned up or at least lesser in number to cause grief inside Pak itself.
Not classic military rule going on her still electing parliament coming up even though it is fairly well neutered as ColdWarrior points out. The courts issue I don’t have a full grasp on but I see some Islamic extremism contained there but countered a bit with some constitutional stuff of merit in the way different structure than we have here and to try to make direct comparisons is less than valid.
Reports I see is we have been slowly but steadily picking apart the Tora Bora area except for the leaked flap over did we miss a shot over OBL which I hold as a smoke and mirrors play and probably half disinformation IO type stuff.
In my view congress isn’t like to play a whole lot in the Pak situation in the near term, simply because they have no way to leverage anything of substance.
Where they are really trying to get their licks in is in the nuclear cooperation agreement with India. This will be counter to our best interest there because we want good relationships with them for safety of shipping there and in the shipping lanes that transit that area and use them along with Australia to counter the China encroachment on the area. India is stepping up their standard of living and energy use is picking up so nuclear cooperation will blunt some of that and lessen the pressure on oil supplies in the area. If congress dumps on their parade it will push them more toward Russia unless their is a realignment of issues between Russia/China/India.
India has Islamic issues on both sides of them and China to the north and moving into some of the areas just to their east.
This is not in any way a simple game of checkers it is more like 6 layer simultaneous 3 game chess.
Musharaff is invoking the Raul Cedras option.
Strong man sees writing on the wall. Acts belligerent and threatens the “sanctity” of democratic institutions. Gets paid mega moolah and movers sent to pick up his belongings and relocate self, family and some loyal cronies to Ireland or Switzerland or Turkey.
End of story.
We should dispatch Hillary Clinton and John Edwards there immediately to caucus with the other lawyers on a plan. But not just any plan — it has to be an international plan!