More Milwaukee County Demographics

Part of the continuing look at voter fraud in Wisconsin and the lack of media attention, which I called The Silence Of The Cheese
For a bit more analysis on Milwaukee County’s presidential election results, let’s take a look at the population dynamics over the past 13 years. As these articles make clear, Milwaukee County has seen a continuing flight of residents; the county decreased by 19,000 people between the 1990 and 2000 census, and the US Census Bureau estimates that the drop has steepened since. They now estimate that 32,000 fewer people live in Milwaukee County, including 29,000 voting-age adults.
From the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel of March 8, 2001:

Meanwhile, Milwaukee County Executive F. Thomas Ament was relieved to hear that his county didn’t lose more people. Milwaukee County dropped 2%, from 959,275 to 940,164.
“Obviously, I’m not pleased with losing population,” he said, but this drop is “not as large as many have expected.”
Ament said Milwaukee County’s population decline reflected a trend of “less people per household,” particularly in long-developed areas.

And it dropped further, according to Census Bureau estimates, since the last election cycle. In 2000, the Census found 692,339 adults living in Milwaukee County. In 2003, the Census Bureau estimates 663,517 adults, a drop of almost 30,000 potential voters, and a much steeper decline than in the previous decade.
Now, with that information, one would expect a decline in voter registrations and turnout, at least in real numbers. However, the election turnout has shown a remarkable and unnerving result that belies the residency figures. Ballots cast have increased, and not by a statistically insignificant margin. Here are the numbers for the last three presidential election cycles:
1996: 365,387
2000: 433,537
2004: 482,236
The increase in votes for the 2000 election was 18.7% over 1996 in a county that had had a net decrease in population of 2% over the past decade. In 2004, despite a population decrease of 3.2% in the past three years, the voter response increased in Milwaukee County by 11.2% over the already-ballooned turnout of 2000. While Milwaukee County lost 5% of its overall population over the past thirteen years and accelerating in the past three, votes cast increased an unbelievable 32% in the past eight years.
I’d like to see the statistical analysis which supports that kind of voter turnout improvements, especially with only a 6% increase overall in national turnout between 1996 and 2004. The results point to some other force at play than a monumental increase in civic response among Milwaukee County adults.
UPDATE: This certainly could be one explanation, an e-mail from a Wisconsin poll worker to Dirty Harry at Stranded On Blue Islands:

We have a large low income apartment complex located in the district covered at the polling place I worked. We had more same day registrants for that address than could live there.
We were unable to contest any of those registrations because of a little trick called “Voter verification” It goes something like this: A voter has an out of state driver’s license and wants to register.They are required to present a utility bill or some other form of information that would verify they live where they say. If they don’t have that, a “legitimate elector” can verify their residence.
What is a “legitimate elector” you may ask? Well let me give you an example. Groups from, Vote Now, ACT, and local GOTV would drop off a group of “voters”. One of the drivers would act as the “Legitimate Elector” and say this person was located where he claimed. Presto – that person is a voter.

Do that enough times and the 32% increase in votes from 1996 to 2004 becomes a lot more understandable.

10 thoughts on “More Milwaukee County Demographics”

  1. File it under: Fuzzy Math

    How about statistically improbable math.
    You’d expect increased voter rolls in growing states. And you’d expect the rolls to grow proportionately to population increase. But in Milwaukee, the population is in steady decline and the voters are (re?…

  2. Dairyland Defrauded

    But the REALITY of 10,000 unverifiable same-day votes in one city, Milwaukee, in a state that Bush “lost” by only 11,000+ votes strongly indicates something amiss. So do both the 69.7% voter turnout among Milwaukee County adults, compared to the 60% tu…

  3. First Florida in 2000 and now this.

    Its time for the Federal government to standardize election procedures and regulation and take that right away from the States.  The Constitution gives the States the right to hold elec

  4. Ohio? What about Wisconsin?

    The Silence Of The Cheese Captains Quarters notes some irregularities in Wisconsin. I don’t think his point so much is “See? The Democrats cheated!” as it is “Why isn’t this getting equal treatment?” He’s got the numbers which show what…

  5. Voter fraud….

    ….in Wisconsin? Captain Ed points out serious question marks surrounding the vote in Milwaukee County, not least an election day increase in voter registrations that seems quite anomalous.
    How did that happen? Well, in one county — Milwauke…

  6. Third World Voting Redux

    I read this tidbit by John Fund in the Wall Street Journal’s Political Diary discussing voting shenanigans in Wisconsin:Wisconsin Cheapens the Franchise, With Predictable Results Democrats raised a host of objections to the validity of President Bush’s…

  7. Voter Fraud

    Captain’s Quarters has the rundown on potential voter fraud in Wisconsin. The big problem? The state’s laws make it absurdly easy to commit. Check out this anecdote he includes at the end:
    We have a large low income apartment complex located in…

  8. With Brie, You Don’t Need Buckeyes

    So let’s put these two stories together: Bush won with 286 electoral votes. Ohio was worth 20 of those, so without it he’s at 266. Let’s assume the cries of fraud are not only legitimate, but significant enough to make up a nearly 120,000 vote deficit….

Comments are closed.