The Guardian (UK) follows up on a report yesterday by the Financial Times that the Iraqi elections have severely undermined at least the native insurgency, and have even resulted in an internecine war among them:
The Iraqi resistance has peaked and is ‘turning in on itself’, according to recent intelligence reports from Baghdad received by Middle Eastern intelligence agencies.
The reports are the most optimistic for several months and reflect analysts’ sense that recent elections in Iraq marked a ‘quantum shift’. They will boost the government in the run-up to the expected general election in May. …
One foreign intelligence report cites a recent incident in which members of the al-Dulaimi tribe, previously known for their antagonism to the coalition and the new government in Iraq, shot dead a number of Islamic militants from outside Iraq, whom they believed responsible for killing a senior al-Dulaimi sheikh. Although the sheikh was a senior police official and thus a ‘collaborator’, tribal elders felt that his death had to be avenged. The killings show tribal allegiances will triumph over any supposed ‘international jihad’, the report said.
The number of attacks on coalition forces has fallen since the election in January while strikes on the new Iraqi police forces and army have continued. Analysts say that this shows that locals – who favoured international targets – are abandoning violent tactics for the moment while the ‘jihadis’ – previously responsible for most of the attacks on locals – are still active.
Last week militants killed 15 Iraqi soldiers, assassinated a senior commander and murdered five women in an ambush.
Intelligence officials believe that ordinary Iraqis are increasingly turning against the militants.
Now they’re starting to fighting amongst themselves, which usually indicates a terminal condition for insurgencies. After all, the native Ba’athists want to live in Iraq, while the foreign Islamists only want to stay in Iraq for specific reasons that have nothing to do with joining Iraqi society. They want to use the Iraqis to create a greater ummah and an Arabian tyranny that has passed from favor.
The combined pressure of credible American power and Iraqi freedom has created a crucible which has crushed the so-called insurgency and will cause it to completely collapse, probably within weeks. If the Saddamite remnants can work out a realistic amnesty program, probably involving the identification of Zarqawi network managers, the Sunni will finally start fully participating in the political process and the Islamists will have lost Iraq for good.
Remember when we spoke last year, in the apex of the insurgent attacks prior to our election, how the terrorists attempted to stage a Tet Offensive? It appears that’s exactly what happened — except this time, the majority of the American public didn’t fall for it. They’ve lost, and they know it, even if the Washington Post and New York Times still has failed to report it for a second day now.