August 22, 2007

Has Maliki Ended The Insurgency?

Earlier today, the Italian news service AKI reported that the presumed leader of the largest insurgency in Iraq will start cooperating with the Iraqi government. Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, one of the highest-ranking members of Saddam Hussein's government, reportedly pledged to work with Iraqi and American forces to fight al-Qaeda in Iraq:

The leader of Iraq's banned Baath party, Izzat Ibrahim al-Douri, has decided to join efforts by the Iraqi authorities to fight al-Qaeda, one of the party's former top officials, Abu Wisam al-Jashaami, told pan-Arab daily Al Hayat.

"AlDouri has decided to sever ties with al-Qaeda and sign up to the programme of the national resistance, which includes routing Islamist terrorists and opening up dialogue with the Baghdad government and foreign forces," al-Jashaami said.

Al-Douri has decided to deal directly with US forces in Iraq, according to al-Jashaami. He figures in the 55-card deck of "most wanted" officials from the former Iraqi regime issued by the US government.

In return, for cooperating in the fight against al-Qaeda, al-Douri has asked for guarantees over his men's safety and for an end to Iraqi army attacks on his militias.

Recent weeks have seen a first step in this direction, when Baathist fighters cooperated with Iraqi government forces in hunting down al-Qaeda operatives in the volatile Diyala province and in several districts of the capital, Baghadad.

This could be game, set, and match for the Iraq War. Some smaller insurgent elements assisted in clearing Baqubah as a test to see whether an alliance with Americans would work. Apparently, the experiment worked. If al-Douri accepts the authority of the elected Iraqi government, then almost all of the resistance in western Iraq will disappear -- leaving AQI very exposed.

It seems more than just coincidental that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki visited the former Ba'athist power base of Tikrit last Thursday. Maliki went to Saddam's hometown, where al-Douri likely has his strongest allies, to meet with the Sunni sheikhs. They gave him a warm welcome, and they pledged to find ways to work with each other. At the same time, he signed an agreement with the Kurds and the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which has been Moqtada al-Sadr's bitter opponent in the south.

Putting all of this together, it looks like Maliki decided to dump Sadr at the beginning of the surge. Sadr fled to Iran for a while, returned to see whether he could weasel his way back into power, and then pulled his deputies from Maliki's government. When it didn't fall, Maliki went to the SIIC to cut a deal with them instead. Once he did that, he brought the Kurds into it and looked for an opening with the Sunnis of Tikrit.

The turning of al-Douri, if true, would indicate that Maliki may have succeeded in marginalizing Sadr and bringing together the rest of the disparate elements of Iraq at least into a relationship where unity could occur. That would not have happened except for the performance of Petraeus and his work in Anbar and Diyala. The surge came as Sunnis had tired of AQI's brutal imposition of Taliban-like rule, and the renewed American effort has given the tribes a reason to unite and to work with the Baghdad government.

Maliki may have taken a huge step towards ending the insurgency while dispensing with Sadr. If so, Congress may hear in September that significant progress has been made both politically and militarily -- and that we can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

UPDATE: Read Michael Yon's latest dispatch to get an idea why even the insurgents prefer the Americans and Maliki. As NZ Bear mentioned on CQ Radio today, Yon notes that AQI makes the best argument for stamping out AQI.

There is another side to the al-Douri story, though, if he does in fact switch teams. The Iraqis have jailed and tried Saddam-era officials with less direct complicity in atrocities than al-Douri, such as Tariq Aziz. Can the King of Clubs simply go free, and if so, how so? The answer will probably be that a pardon will save many more lives and bring healing to Iraq -- all of which would undoubtedly be true. It will provoke some uncomfortable questions about the scope of forgiveness necessary for an Iraqi national reconciliation.

UPDATE II, 5:16 PM: Comments are not working at the moment -- we're looking for the fix now, but it may take a little time. Sorry for the inconvenience!

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Comments (46)

Posted by Richard Aubrey | August 22, 2007 3:40 PM

So that means Sadr and Levin are on the same page.

Not a surprise.

Posted by Mark | August 22, 2007 3:46 PM

Really interesting. If true, Maliki is crazy like a fox.

Of course, I think this is all a Karl Rove plot. Start the surge, make it look like the Maliki government is failing, causing Hillary! and others Dims to admit the surge is working but to point out the Maliki government is failing, and then pull the switch making Maliki the diplomatic genius, and making Hillary! look like an idiot.

And of course, resign to make it look like you had nothing to do with it.

Rove, you magnificent bastard!

Posted by SlimGuy | August 22, 2007 3:47 PM

Captain 

I will hold off judgment for a bit.

This same guy was up on an arrest warrant from Interpol 3 days ago that Iraq has requested.

Also I need more to see if this isn't just a game play from Syria which is also Bathist under direction of Iran.

Now if it actually boils down to be the real deal and they help go against AQ in Iraq, fine and dandy.

But right now it sounds like a too good to be true thing where he may be double teaming up with Sadr.

Really not worth a snap judgment at this point. 

 

 

Posted by burt | August 22, 2007 3:49 PM

This looks very good, but I wonder whether Sadr still has a pocket full of lives left.

I like the new Captains Quarters.

Posted by SlimGuy | August 22, 2007 3:52 PM

Captain 

I will hold off judgment for a bit.

This same guy was up on an arrest warrant from Interpol 3 days ago that Iraq has requested.

Also I need more to see if this isn't just a game play from Syria which is also Bathist under direction of Iran.

Now if it actually boils down to be the real deal and they help go against AQ in Iraq, fine and dandy.

But right now it sounds like a too good to be true thing where he may be double teaming up with Sadr.

Really not worth a snap judgment at this point. 

 

 

Posted by Terrye [TypeKey Profile Page] | August 22, 2007 5:18 PM

I certainly hope this is true, for everyone's sake.

Dafydd at Big Lizards mentions that there is word the French may have made overtures to broker a peace deal. Perhaps that was part of the reason Sarkozy came to the states.

Posted by filistro | August 22, 2007 5:19 PM

Iraq's 55 Most-Wanted list: #6.... Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri LTG Revolutionary Command Council (RCC) Vice-Chairman / Northern Region Commander / Inner Circle/ Deputy Secretary General, Ba’th Party Regional Command / Deputy Commander, Armed Forces

So what's really happening here? Looks as if somebody is working hard to get Al-Duri set up as the new "strongman" in Iraq.

Wow.

If it works out... what a bargain! For a mere 4,000 lives and half a trillion dollars, we've replaced Saddam Hussein with one of his most trusted henchman.

Posted by Captain Ed | August 22, 2007 5:21 PM

The majority Shi'ites are never going to allow al-Douri to become "the new strongman". If he's lucky, they'll allow him to live. That's what he's bargaining for now.

Posted by Terrye [TypeKey Profile Page] | August 22, 2007 5:23 PM

I certainly hope this is true, for everyone's sake.

Dafydd at Big Lizards mentions that there is word the French may have made overtures to broker a peace deal. Perhaps that was part of the reason Sarkozy came to the states.

Posted by Terrye [TypeKey Profile Page] | August 22, 2007 5:29 PM

Sorry for the double post.

And I agree with the Captain re the possibility that al-Douri will become a strongman. Not likely. Besides if it were left to people like Levin the old strongman Saddam would still be there. He killed more than 4,000 people in one village on one day. So I do not think that we need too much posturing from the left on this.

Posted by Hugh Beaumont | August 22, 2007 5:31 PM

I'm still thinking that Iran is in the process of building a Hizzbolah like force in Iraq with Sadr as her proxy.

Iran plays these games very well. I will withhold the cheering.

Posted by filistro | August 22, 2007 5:31 PM

History is a long and winding road, Captain. What if the Iraqi Shi'ite majority gets so cosy with Iran that the US, in order to protect its vital interests, is eventually forced to throw its support behind the Sunnis and these unsavory former Baathists, just as it once did with Saddam himself?

To misquote William Blake:

What immortal hand or eye
Could frame such fearful symmetry?

Posted by docjim505 | August 22, 2007 5:33 PM

This could be wonderful news if it proves to be true (as it didn't come from al-AP, there is hope). If "the incompetent" al-Maliki has made a deal to get the terrorists to, if not lay down their arms then at least to stop shooting at ISF and US troops, then it could well be the beginning of the end of the war. As more and more of Iraq becomes pacified, the Iraqi government will be able to stop worrying about day-to-day survival and start concentrating on governing. Why, they might even start meeting some of those "benchmarks" I keep hearing about!

Oh, if it IS true, could somebody PLEASE get me a pic of Carl Levin's face when he finds out? I'll be he looks as sour as Screamin' Howie Dean did when we got Saddam.

Posted by NahnCee | August 22, 2007 5:42 PM

Maliki is quoted in yesterday's edition of GulfNews as follows:

At the end of his visit to Damascus, Al Maliki said "no one has the right to place timetables on the Iraq government. It was elected by its people".

"Those who make such statements are bothered by our visit to Syria. We will pay no attention. We care for our people and our constitution and can find friends elsewhere," news agencies quoted Al Maliki as saying.

http://gulfnews.com/region/Iraq/10148618.html

He's threatening to "find friends elsewhere" while he's visiting Syria. These do not sound like the words of a statesman who's just made a breakthrough in his own country.

Posted by unclesmrgol | August 22, 2007 6:02 PM

NahnCee,

What better way to tell the Democrats that they have to either get with the program or have the US itself get marginalized than to talk tough to them on a trip to a neighboring country which happens to be hostile to the US.

Note that Syria borders Iraq (and is 70% Sunni). Maliki has to deal with them, as he will have to deal with Iran (90% Shia). They are his neighbors, and the bad guys can walk across the borders, just like the illegals do to us here. It's in his best interests to not have the bad guys cross, so if a bit of talking will do that...

This is grand theater on Maliki's part, and it plays right by my book. Let's see what he gets from Iran.

Posted by skeptical | August 22, 2007 6:06 PM

I believe that they'll cooperate, but the moment the advantage goes the other way, I wouldn't leave my bets to double down. If they're learning to actually be political instead of merely confrontational or worse, it could be the beginning of the end of their civil war.

Captain, did you comment on the half dozen sergeants writing about the war as they've seen it? I can't find that in the archives. I was looking forward to your comments. Seemed powerful and insightful. Did I miss your take?

Posted by Bennett | August 22, 2007 6:27 PM

Sometimes I think we're guilty of a certain kind of condescension and paternalism in this country. We are so quick to assume that the Iraqis don't have what it takes to figure things out, what will work and what won't, that they are condemned to a permanent history of oppressive dictatorship (the strongman argument) or powerless to resist destructive interference from their neighbors (the Syrian and/or Iranian argument). Maybe Maliki is a lot smarter than we're all willing to concede. Maybe he knows his country and his people.

Posted by Rovin | August 22, 2007 6:32 PM

If this is true, this is truly great news. Something that has not been mentioned lately---the Iraqi Army is STANDING UP. Our troops are doing their best to help them hold the "new ground" and this never would have happened with out the change in the ROE.

Keep kickin' butt General P.

Posted by k2aggie07 | August 22, 2007 6:54 PM

NahnCee,

I actually enjoyed Maliki's fire-in-the-belly. I don't give a durn for someone who "plays his part". If Maliki was elected by his people to do a job, then he oughta do it -- and the US can go to hell if we don't line up with his electorate's wishes.

That's the only honest way to run things, and I respect him for that.

I think the guy has more craftiness than we've seen. He certainly has more guts: you couldn't pay me enough to take the job he's got. Its like signing a bounty onto your own head.

Posted by Dan | August 22, 2007 7:01 PM

Douri is not backed by Syria. They forced a split in Iraqi Baathist movement a year or so back, by backing an internal challenge to Douri by a guy that's more in their pocket.

Posted by suek | August 22, 2007 7:02 PM

I've wondered what happened to al Douri... Guess he's decided who's the strong horse in Iraq. Some of the generals in the German army were strictly military men.... Is Al Douri accused of the involvement in the atrocities committed by Saddam, or was he strictly military?

Posted by suek | August 22, 2007 7:07 PM

I've wondered what happened to al Douri... Guess he's decided who's the strong horse in Iraq. Some of the generals in the German army were strictly military men.... Is Al Douri accused of the involvement in the atrocities committed by Saddam, or was he strictly military?

Posted by Carol Herman | August 22, 2007 7:17 PM

I'd prefer some reporting, from Iraqis, on how they like Maliki. Because I'm sure they know he's up there, against the wall. And, that part of the problem was the Saud's "lotion boy" also being the President of the United States.

The way Bush threw around line drawings for borders, had to scare the daylights out of the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, and Syria! To say nothing of Lebanon. Where Siniora is actually holding his own. (With no help from Nasrallah. Or Damascus.)

Then, DEBKA posted that Maliki went to Damascus and "opened the door" with Assad. That an oil terminal, from Irak, through to Tripoli, would be re-activative. It's been out of commission since 1967 !!!

Maliki was an exile during Saddam's time. And,during those 20 years when he was not setting foot in Irak, he lived for 10 years in Damascus. And, for another 10 years in Kakamamie's Iran.

Just like Chalabi has had his eye on the prize. (And, in 1991, Chalabi stole ALL of Jordan's banking money. Yup. BILLIONS. And, he got American protection. Because the former shrimp-king of Jordan backed Saddam, back in 1991.

Just so you get yourself familiar with the players.

Someone said to me I was wrong to think Chalabi was backed by the CIA. Supposedly, this poster at JOM (Just One Minute), said Chalabi was provided military training for his militia by STATE. And, in any event, it was Chalabi that got into Irak FIRST, when Tommy Franks was there! And, we supplied the C-130 that dropped his goons in. They then went on a looting spree. (Made all the papers!)

So, you bet, our mistakes in Irak were huge, screw-up, thumb prints.

But, today, at the New York Post, there's an article by Ralph Peters, praising Patraeus. And, showing the progress now that we've climbed out of our steep learning curve.

Maliki, too, can read a map.

He saw Israel refusing James Baker's orders, to use the IDF to take the giraffe's head off;

So, the Soddies aren't about to grab more real estate, after all.

But what Maliki has done has managed to infuriate the nut-in-a-dinner-jacket; because it's a deal with Maliki ... that cuts out Iran.

Money is certainly a motivator. When Irak really begins to haul its oil it has the wealth potential of the Saud's right there.

Violence in Irak is down. Thanks to the ways we're working with the Iraqi people, and not spending American money like drunken sailors anymore.

Troops, also, no longer live on fortified bases. But are out there, among the Iraqi soldiers/police. And, working with them, as they work with the locals.

HALF the violence in Iraq has been stopped.

And, it looks like Maliki is finding ways to shore up the next phase, which comes when oil production comes on line;

And, Iran gets screwed in the Gulf of Hor-moo's ... How so? Well, the Iranians thought they'd be the hosts to the supply line to the shipping out of Irak's oil. SURPRISE!

Gee, I love surprises like that. For what it's worth? I got the Maliki moves explained through DEBKA.

Posted by Bob Leibowitz | August 22, 2007 7:33 PM

Captain -- Very good news, indeed, if it holds up.

So good, in fact, I wonder whether he'd be willing to trade positions with Harry Reid. Maliki could live in the Ritz Carlton and run the Senate. A little more effectiveness in our legislature would go a long ways!

-- Bob

Posted by NahnCee | August 22, 2007 7:41 PM

If Maliki was elected by his people to do a job, then he oughta do it -- and the US can go to hell if we don't line up with his electorate's wishes.

I would be absolutely thrilled and delighted to pack up my football, pull our troops out, and quit pouring American tax dollars down the Iraqi rathole ... and go to hell if Malaki tells us to leave. Or asks us to leave. Or hints that we should leave. Or looks at Petreaus cross-eyed.

Is next Monday too soon and too rude?

Posted by negentropy | August 22, 2007 7:42 PM

Smells like hudna to me. I'm always cautious to apply Western concepts like honor and trustworthiness to members of a culture who will forego them when it is first convenient (especially in dealings with the infidel).

But I would always like to be wrong...

Posted by negentropy | August 22, 2007 7:47 PM

Smells like hudna to me. I'm always cautious to apply Western concepts like honor and trustworthiness to members of a culture who will forego them when it is first convenient (especially in dealings with the infidel).

But I would always like to be wrong...

Posted by NahnCee | August 22, 2007 7:53 PM

Carol Herman, Omar and Mohammad at Iraq the Model have a post today discussing whether or not Iraq needs to call early elections, with the specific goal of getting rid of Malaki. They are, of course, Sunni and Malaki is Shiite, and I think it was probably written before this latest news, but they seem to be tilting towards thinking that early elections NOW would be a not-bad idea, simply on the basis of how could it possibly get any worse.

The feeling I get reading it is that the only reason they're cautious about calling for elections at all is they're new to this whole democracy critter and aren't exactly sure how it would work or what the ramifications would be.

As a voter who's voted to impeach the SOB(s) a couple of times in the past, I'd like to tell any Iraqi listening that there's nothing quite like the thrill of the power of throwing them out of office if they're not doing what you tell them to do.

Posted by k2aggie07 | August 22, 2007 9:15 PM

NahnCee when Maliki tells us to leave, we will. Bush has said that repeatedly.

But if we're really going to do this whole "democracy" thing it can't be a sham or a fake. We can help them, but after a time they are a sovereign nation, whether we like it or not. Americans need to realize that the decision has been made: Iraq is its own nation, not a colony. This is through good and bad decisions.

I can see no reason to impeach Maliki at this point. In fact, judging by his recent strides and shrewd political maneuvering (which puts the "bipartisanship" practiced in this country to shame -- and he has to cover it three ways!) impeaching him would be a very bad idea.

Timing is everything in fighting and politics. The Iraqi people would not have let al-Douri and the Baathists back in without a greater-of-two-evils scenario, which is exactly what they've got now.

Perhaps al-Maliki knows a little bit more about the goings-on in his own country than we armchair politicos here?

At any rate, democrats (Levin) are calling for his impeachment. In my mind, thats reason enough to give him more time.

Posted by Scott Malensek | August 22, 2007 9:19 PM

Remember:
12/30/06 Saddam executed
12/31/06 Baath party in Jordan names Izzat their leader
1/1/07 Battle for new Baath Party leader after Saddam expected
1/2/07 Izzat and rival have meeting in January after execution, Izzat and friends walk out
1/3/07 Izzat is named party Baath leader while in Syria
1/10/07 Bush orders more troops to Iraq to quell sectarian violence and facilitate national political reconciliation
1/14/07 Iraq’s Talibani visits Syria

Since then, Iraqi tribes have been uniting to fight AQ in Iraq. Iraqi militias have been joining the fight against AQ in Iraq. The ISF's gotten stronger. US forces have decimated the insurgency killing/capturing 1000-2000 a month! Meanwhile, the Iraqi government's been making overt overtures to Iran and Syria and others to help end the violence.

It would be a small wonder to believe that Saddam's #2 man...his replacement, might be seeking ways to just sorta fade away-not surrender, not be defeated....

...just sorta fade away. A nice pension from a Saudi or Arab Emirate might make that happen a lot easier. Maybe a safe retreat in Lebanon or Syria or France...who knows? It's not out of the realm of possibility despite what Democrats try to market.

Posted by Lightwave | August 22, 2007 9:55 PM

If this is true, this is potentially phenomenal news!

It means that Iraq may be on the road to a true democracy, that we'll be able to secure Iraq to the point where we can start bringing our troops home and the Iraqis can provide their own security, and it will put *massive* pressure on Iran and Syria.

If this level of improvement in Iraq continues, the political reconciling both here and abroad will be historic. It will be the damn of a new era in the Middle East...and in the US, a generational sea change could be right around the corner. It would be the end of the Democrats as we know them...and I don't think anyone here would complain too much about that.

Posted by Carol Herman | August 22, 2007 10:23 PM

NanCee, I recognized that Omar and his brother, up at Iraq The Model, are Sunnis. Since Maliki was the choice of a number of factions, backing the Shi'a majority's choice; the "first odd man out" were the Sunnis, who didn't cooperate at all.

And, all I know that I think is "accurate," just came from DEBKA. So lots of voices disagree. "It's DEBKA," is the usual refrain.

What struck me, since Maliki LIVED in Damascus for ten years; (either before or after living in Tehran,for ten years), is that UNLIKE Allawi and Chalabi; the CIA and STATE guys, Maliki did not have USA written all over him.

Today, Ralph Peters wrote a piece about General Patraeus. Where he shows how much better we're doing in Irak, these days. Thanks to Patraeus. Who, unlike most generals, has a rather "ordinary" office. Where he does these extra-ordinary things.

The big mistakes that were made in Iraq, exposed Iraqis to the Saud's terror machine. Since, we always left. And, those Iraqis who had cooperated with us, GOT MURDERED.

Actually, the past three years, at least, has been a murder, and a revenge murder site; between warring factions of Iraqis. ALL OF WHOM had elites who had won parliamentary seats; and who did NOTHING. The major thrust? WHO COULD GRAB THE OIL WEALTH OUT OF THE COUNTRY. Allawi? Chalabi? The Soddies?

Meanwhile Mookie has fled. And, his militia is taking hits. Were there screaming matches between Patraeus and Maliki? SURE.

Did The Saud's use pressure on Bush. Oh, that's for sure! And, Maliki "reversed the carpet," when he was called by Bush to show up at the midget-shrimp's Jordan headquarters. Where instead of being read the riot act, he proved to Bush that what James Baker wanted, and still wants, isn't about to happen. As long as Maliki is in charge.

And, that he is.

Again, "it's only DEBKA." But DEBKA recognizes the full meaning of Maliki's trip to Assad. (And, the Israelis also backed Assad, when Condi Rice danced with Chirac. And, James Baker really pushed Olmert!) Fences weren't mended until it became obvious Olmert was in fact, in charge, in Israel. And, not about to get tossed by "early elections."

Elections in Irak are due to occur in 2009. Guiliani has already said that if Iraqis choose to go the "iranian path" towards the Islamists, he wouldn't recognize the outcome.

Whatever the pressures are; and Irak is really divisible into 3 parts; the money from the oil doesn't divide equally. And, it's the Sunnis who live on the short end of the stick, in that department.

One of the "more better" posts put up at Iraq The Model, has to do with one of the brother's being accepted into an American university for a Masters or Ph.D program. His visa was dropped off in Amman, Jordan. And, he suffered the flight to hell. All incoming Iraqis are put through 17 hours of torture, before they are sent home. "Picking up an American visa," wasn't possible.

So, I think Jordan's now thoroughly pissed. And, one avenue open to Sunnis, to travel about, got slammed shut. BUT WE DON'T HEAR A WORD.

Ralph Peters article today, praising our progress in Iraq, points out that we're now there watching the Iraqis doing the rebuilding. We no longer throw "big Washington projects" into the mix, where all the money just bred more terror. Or got "stolen." The new system is hand-and-glove with the Iraqis. And, they're the ones doing the building. As Peters said: IT wouldn't pass OSHA inspection. But it's how the Iraqis do things.

This means? We're no longer on the OUTSIDE, with the people being caught in the storm. And, the more we know about the PEOPLE on the ground, the better progress can be made.

As I've said, it wasn't an overnight victory for General Douglas MacArthur, either. But he put his ass in Tokyo. Truman couldn't get him to leave. And, all the problems that needed to be solved (and there were many), came across MacArthur's desk. (He's not called The American Caesar, for nothing. And, William Manchester's book about him is top notch.

Irak is a work in progress.

But we're not longer holding the shitty end of the stick.

Posted by Carol Herman | August 22, 2007 10:37 PM

Terrye, you bring up a good point. And, you give a good referral link to Daffydd at Big Lizards.

As soon as I saw it, it clicked on a light bulb.

Assad works with the FRENCH.

DEBKA mentions this "deal" where the oil from Iraq will flow to sea, through TRIPOLI. On the Mediterranean; accessing the WEST. The "tubes" were shut down back in 1967.

This also means SYRIA will become a PROCESSING PLANT for the oil industry! MEGA, MEGA BUCKS.

Of course, it's NOT what iran wants! Iran, so far, has a lock on oil going out, through the Straits of Hormuz.

All this is very, very interesting.

Again, DEBKA said that Assad's head may roll off because Tehran is very, very angry. They can't exactly "replace" Assad. But mad monsters are known to to "mafia." Meanwhile, there seems to be a lot of support for this "new way."

And, Assad, for it to succeed, has to pull away from Tehran.

It's even possible putin's jerking around the threats he's doing, especially to the Europeans. And, including heavy breathing on Czecheslovakia, might even be a counter-move for the stuff that seems to be flying under the radar. Between the French. Sarkozy visit to Bush. And, this "new approach." Where Maliki went to Damascus "and broke the dam, open."

I'd love it, if Bush could take a finger and stick it right into Bandar's eye!

And, since the biggest issue in Irak was "how to distribute the oil weath," then it seems a "way has been found," that's agree-able.

Wow. What an interesting development.

It's like watching pieces of a puzzle emerge with borders you can identify. It's making sense.

Ya know, if the KURDS decide to back the Shi'a, in Iraq. The Sunnis are screwed.

Early elections?

If Maliki has put this train into motion, he's not going to be easy to beat.

And, as long as war doesn't break out in the Mideast, Olmert's tougher to beat, too. Not that fanatics don't "dream on."

Posted by Shaprshooter | August 23, 2007 4:31 AM

To attain a true liberal/"Democracy" the Iraqis are going to have to offload their tribalistic mindsets for more than a convenient moment.

Unfortunately, that's not very likely.

Posted by Terrye [TypeKey Profile Page] | August 23, 2007 6:00 AM

Carol:

We agree on something. I like that for a change.

Yes, the French can be helpful, when they want to.

Posted by Fred | August 23, 2007 8:19 AM


Interesting take on this.
However ABC news runs a story this morning still faulting the Maliki Govt.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=3514233

I believe this is derived from a Times article.
Too bad they can't lay off the Iraqi leaders long enough for them to get something accomplished.
The MSM will continue to pour doubt into the public airwaves trying to convince America there is no progress.

Posted by Angry Dumbo | August 23, 2007 11:58 AM

Irak is a work in progress.

But we're not longer holding the shitty end of the stick.


Carol, you get way too much grief for your lengthly posts. I read them regularly. Ignore the trolls. Today you really make sense. I love the MacArthur Patraeus analogy. BTW, I'm going to pick up that Manchester book. Thanks for the knowledge. : ))

Posted by the big E | August 23, 2007 7:48 PM

This report coming from Italy is suspect.

But this report is solidly in line with how the many "non- fundamentalist" fifedumbs' operate over there - they really have little loyalty to anyone. They join forces and then leave and attack the same force they previously sided with. Somewhat bizzare to USA standards - but should we expect anything else. Most of them will not fight to the death.

Posted by Steve J. | August 24, 2007 2:29 AM

The surge came as Sunnis had tired of AQI's brutal imposition of Taliban-like rule, and the renewed American effort has given the tribes a reason to unite and to work with the Baghdad government.

There's almost no chance those Sunni tribes will work with the central government.

Posted by endorendil | August 25, 2007 2:25 AM

Yeah, I can see it now: Al-Douri as a latter-day Rudolf Hess. Bush is the new, not-so-bright Churchill, who is going to deal with Al-Douri in stead of stuffing him in Dave Jones's locker.

To be even remotely happy about this event, you have to accept that the Baath party is the main part of the insurgency, that Al-Douri is actually in control of the party, and that he is dealing in good faith. Tenuous on all three counts. And of course, it would mean that Al-Douri is responsible for killing more than 3000 Americans, and maiming almost 10 times as many. Can you imagine the Bush administration dealing with a genocidal terrorist, who has American blood on his hands? Apparently the Captain thinks it is a good thing. So Ed, why not make a deal with Osama in return for his help to fight the Taliban?

Posted by D Blackton | August 25, 2007 6:20 PM

Game, set and match. I don't think so. The one thing which causes me a great deal of worry is the forthcoming referendum in November in Kirkuk as to its status as a Kurdish territory or not. If it is postponed that will cause a great deal of anger among the Kurds (they may even bolt Iraq's parliment in protest), if it goes through and passes, as is expected, then the Turkmen, Arabs, and other minorities will be enraged. As of now, we have only be standing between the Sunni and Shia Arabs desire to kill each other. If the Kurds get thrown into the Civil War, we are doomed.

And I don't think there is a damn thing we can do about it except to begin to redeploy our troops there now and focus our energy on security there. If we ignore this, then all of the gains of the surge, supposed or real, will surely be for nothing.

The September report means nothing, November is the key. It is about time people pay attention to it.

Posted by arrest the ziotraitors | August 27, 2007 2:58 AM

you right-wing christo-fascists are a danger to America ... so the "surge" has tamped down violence for a brief period - which will only explode once we draw down which we will soon.

The war was based on lies, only benefits Israel and the neocon war-party agenda.

Anyone who supports this war and the notion of attacking Iran, Syria or Pakistan is a TRAITOR to America.

We should put our troops into Israel, disarm them, destroy their illegal nukes, and tear down every illegal settlement and allow the return of the Palestinians who had their land stolen.

Israel is the key troublemaker and idiot christofascist Americans enable their endless ongoing warcrimes.

Truth will win out and the traitors exposed.

A true American wants us out of Iraq now and will put pressure on Israel not make more illegal wars against Israel's enemies.

Posted by Some truth | August 27, 2007 4:53 AM

August 26, 2007

Abu Mohammed, spokesperson for the Baath party, denied the contents of an article that appeared in the BritishBritish newspaper The Telegraph.

According to the Telegraph-UK, Abu Mohammed said that the US "should sit with resistance leaders to put in place a plan to fix al-Qa'eda, achieve stability in Iraq and end Iranian intervention.

"To announce their goodwill they should officially accept Iraq's rights as we have set out, backed by the UN and the international community, and then put forward a withdrawal plan".

In a a statement posted on Albasrah.net, Abu Mohammed accused "the Telegraph" of deliberate distortion of his words.

During his meeting with the British journalist, he reaffirmed that the Baath party will never accept to negotiate with the occupiers unless until they agree to the conditions that have been laid down previously, the main one being commitment by the US to complete and unconditional withdrawal, Abu Mohmmed said.

Abu Mohammed described the words attributed to him by "The Telegraph" as "absolutely untrue and totally fabricated".

Posted by One of your own | August 27, 2007 5:38 AM

This an excerpt from an article by "Paul Craig Roberts" one of your own.You remember him don't you? You, who still have your Ronnie and Nancy his and her towels hanging in the bathroom.

Paul Craig Roberts "More War on the Horizon" a short excerpt.


"Except for the armaments industry, where is the gain to America in Bush’s wars? Before Bush invaded Afghanistan, the Taliban had stamped out drug production. The US invasion has brought it back.

On August 22 Bush told the Veterans of Foreign Wars that US troops are the “greatest force for human liberation the world has ever known.” Tell that to the 650,000 dead Iraqis and the 4 million displaced Iraqis, and the tens of thousands of slaughtered Afghans, and the coming civilian deaths in Iran. Tell that to all the bombed civilians from Serbia to Africa who are blown to pieces in order that a US president can make a point. Bush goes far beyond George Orwell’s “Newspeak” in his novel, 1984, when Bush equates US hegemony with liberation.

America’s hegemonic hubris is a sickness. A country that tolerates a war criminal while he openly plans to attack yet another country is definitely not a light unto the world.

Just reminder ,Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review.

Posted by A little dissension in the ranks. | August 27, 2007 5:43 AM

This an excerpt from an article by "Paul Craig Roberts" one of your own.You remember him don't you? You, who still have your Ronnie and Nancy his and her towels hanging in the bathroom.

Paul Craig Roberts "More War on the Horizon" a short excerpt.


"Except for the armaments industry, where is the gain to America in Bush’s wars? Before Bush invaded Afghanistan, the Taliban had stamped out drug production. The US invasion has brought it back.

On August 22 Bush told the Veterans of Foreign Wars that US troops are the “greatest force for human liberation the world has ever known.” Tell that to the 650,000 dead Iraqis and the 4 million displaced Iraqis, and the tens of thousands of slaughtered Afghans, and the coming civilian deaths in Iran. Tell that to all the bombed civilians from Serbia to Africa who are blown to pieces in order that a US president can make a point. Bush goes far beyond George Orwell’s “Newspeak” in his novel, 1984, when Bush equates US hegemony with liberation.

America’s hegemonic hubris is a sickness. A country that tolerates a war criminal while he openly plans to attack yet another country is definitely not a light unto the world.

Just a reminder,for those of you who don't remember him. Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review.

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