December 27, 2007

The Holiday Is Over (Update With Candidate Reactions)

As our efforts in Iraq continue to show improved results, national security slowly slipped off the radar in the presidential primaries. Instead, health care and immigration have taken more of a leading role in both parties as we focused inwardly in the final quarter of 2007. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto changes that calculation, argues John Podhoretz, and demonstrates the folly of that thinking:

The horrifying assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan this morning comes only one week before the Iowa caucuses and 12 days before New Hampshire. It is a sobering and frightening reminder of the challenges and threats and dangers posed to the United States by radical Islam, the nature of the struggle being waged against the effort to extend democratic freedoms in the Muslim world, and the awful possibility of a nuclear Pakistan overrun by Islamofascists. This is what the next president will be compelled by circumstance to spend a plurality of his or her time on. This is what really matters, not the cross Mike Huckabee lit up behind his head in his Christmas ad.

American politics would dearly love to take a holiday from history, just as it did in the 1990s. But our enemies are not going to allow us to do so.

John notes the similarity between our brief electoral respite from the war on terror and the "peace dividend" thinking at the end of the Cold War. In that case, though, one could excuse people for indulging in a victory dance and strategic rethinking; we actually won that conflict after four decades of hard work and sacrifice. We haven't beaten the terrorists yet, and some people preferred to act as if they had disappeared.

They haven't gone anywhere except to Pakistan, and they're showing that they can still affect world events. According to Michael Ledeen at The Corner, al-Qaeda has already taken credit for the assassination. “We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat [the] mujahadeen.” They understand this as a blow to the US, one they could more easily inflict than a direct attack on American assets.

The presidential candidates understand this as well. Each of them have begun issuing statements condemning the bombing, but the assassination will require more than just a press release. It will likely refocus voters, at least in the GOP, on the strength of each candidate in pursuing a winning strategy on the war. That undoubtedly helps Rudy Giuliani, whose fade in the polls came in direct proportion to the fade of focus on Iraq. It also could boost John McCain, the only candidate with significant military experience, and possibly Fred Thompson, who never stopped talking about the war.

As John says, the holiday has come to a sudden halt. We remain at war because our enemies remain at war. We forget that at our peril, and only through deliberate ignorance bordering on pathological denial.

UPDATE: Who does this help on the other side of the aisle? Hillary Clinton, without a doubt. Neither Barack Obama nor John Edwards has any chops on foreign policy or even running a government, and while being First Lady doesn't really mean much, primary voters will probably see it as an improvement over the alternatives.

UPDATE II AND BUMP: Candidate reactions:

Mike Huckabee: "I believe that we are currently engaged in a world war. Radical Islamic fascists have declared war on our country and our way of life. They have sworn to annihilate each of us who believe in a free society, all in the name of a perversion of religion and an impersonal god. We go to great extremes to save lives, they go to great extremes to take them. This war is not a conventional war, and these terrorists are not a conventional enemy. We must fight the war on terror with the intensity and single-mindedness that it deserves."

Mitt Romney: ""We are still learning the details of today's tragic events in Pakistan, but this is a stark reminder that America must not only stay on high alert, but remain actively engaged across the globe. Pakistan has long been a key part in the war against extremism and radical jihadists. For those who think Iraq is the sole front in the War on Terror, one must look no further than what has happened today. America must show its commitment to stand with all moderate forces across the Islamic world and together face the defining challenge of our generation – the struggle against violent, radical jihadists."

Rudy Giuliani: "The assassination of Benazir Bhutto is a tragic event for Pakistan and for democracy in Pakistan. Her murderers must be brought to justice and Pakistan must continue the path back to democracy and the rule of law. Her death is a reminder that terrorism anywhere -- whether in New York, London, Tel-Aviv or Rawalpindi -- is an enemy of freedom. We must redouble our efforts to win the Terrorists’ War on Us.”

UPDATE III: Hillary Clinton: "She returned to Pakistan to fight for democracy despite threats and previous attempts on her life and now she has made the ultimate sacrifice. Her death is a tragedy for her country and a terrible reminder of the work that remains to bring peace, stability, and hope to regions of the globe too often paralyzed by fear, hatred, and violence." No mention of the war ...

Bill Richardson demands that Bush force Musharraf to step down: "A leader has died, but democracy must live. The United States government cannot stand by and allow Pakistan's return to democracy to be derailed or delayed by violence." If we force Musharraf to step down, who replaces him? Does Richardson have any idea? And how do we go about "forcing" Musharraf to step down? More on this later ...

Barack Obama: "She was a respected and resilient advocate for the democratic aspirations of the Pakistani people. We join with them in mourning her loss, and stand with them in their quest for democracy and against the terrorists who threaten the common security of the world." Probably the best in class for the Democrats.

UPDATE IV: Fred Thompson responded earlier, and I missed it:

It is a tragedy, of course. It reminds us that things can happen in faraway places of the world that can affect the United States. I think this should be of great concern to us. It is almost a perfect storm in a very bad sense because two forces are operating against each other that are both desirable. One is democracy: they were making progress in that regard in that country. Former prime minister Bhutto was an important part of that process. But the other is stability. Pakistan is a nuclear country, and we cannot afford to let nukes fall into the hands of dangerous Muslim radicals. We are hoping those two things can be balanced out. We can see the continued progress toward a democratic society but also maintain stability in the country, which seems to be very much in doubt right now.

Read that entire response, in fact; clearly, Fred has kept on top of things in Pakistan.

More as I find them ....

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» Candidates Reactions To Bhutto Assassination: Some Foot In Mouth Some Craven from The Moderate Voice
An unforeseen event is the test of a President — and an opportunity for a presidential candidate. But in responding to Pakistan opposition leader leader Benazir Bhutto’’s assassination some candidates displayed more foot-in-mouth a... [Read More]

» Candidates Reactions To Bhutto Assassination: Some Foot In Mouth Some Craven from The Moderate Voice
An unforeseen event is the test of a President — and an opportunity for a presidential candidate. But in responding to Pakistan opposition leader leader Benazir Bhutto’’s assassination some candidates displayed more foot-in-mouth a... [Read More]

» Candidates Reactions To Bhutto Assassination: Some Foot In Mouth Some Craven from The Moderate Voice
An unforeseen event is the test of a President — and an opportunity for a presidential candidate. But in responding to Pakistan opposition leader leader Benazir Bhutto’’s assassination some candidates displayed more foot-in-mouth a... [Read More]

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