Canadian politics have transformed since the revelations of Adscam showed the rot in the Liberal governance that had been in place for more than a decade. Once considered a mere shadow of a party, the Tories roared back from oblivion to cpature a minority government earlier this year, in what appeared to be a “test drive” for Canadians. Since their election, the Conservatives have built an impressive following, polling into the 40s nationally and poising themselves for a majority government in the next elections.
The Liberals have found themselves in a free-fall, unable to find new leadership that can attract those offended by the corruption of Adscam and by the fear-based electoral tactics they used against the Tories and Stephen Harper. Until now, however, the Grits could count on Ontario as their power base. That seems to be changing as well, according to a new Ipsos poll:
According to a new Ipsos Reid survey of 770 Ontarians, conducted on behalf of Global News and CFRB, the John Tory led Progressive Conservatives (40%, +3 points from a February Ipsos Reid survey) have gained a slight edge on the current ruling Dalton McGuinty led Liberal Party (37%, unchanged).
Howard Hampton and the NDP trail further back of the pack with 17% support (-1 point), and Frank de Jong and the Green Party continue to garner a modest percentage of total votes (5%, -2 points).
The Tories lead in all but two areas of Ontario: Northern and Central. Only in Northern Ontario does the difference become significant, and the Tories match that by significant leads in Eastern and South-Western Ontario. The Ipsos results do not show other kinds of demographic information, but clearly the two parties have reached a deadlock in what used to be a lock for Liberals.
Canada appears to have turned its back on the Liberals, and the Liberals appear to have nothing with which to gain their attention once more.