Category: Iraq

Osama bin Laden released an audio tape statement that focused on the Sunnis of Iraq, warning them not to fight against al-Qaeda in Iraq, the bin Laden affiliate currently reeling from the combined forces of the American surge and the Anbar Awakening. The tape got made before the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, as Osama didn’t mention al-Qaeda’s success in Pakistan. He did make clear that he sees Iraq as a central battlefront in his jihad against the West:

Osama bin Laden warned Iraq’s Sunni Arabs against fighting al-Qaida and vowed to expand the terror group’s holy war to Israel in a new audiotape Saturday, threatening “blood for blood, destruction for destruction.”
Most of the 56-minute tape dealt with Iraq, apparently al-Qaida’s latest attempt to keep supporters in Iraq unified at a time when the U.S. military claims to have al-Qaida’s Iraq branch on the run. …
Bin Laden said Sunni Arabs who have joined the Awakening Councils “have betrayed the nation and brought disgrace and shame to their people. They will suffer in life and in the afterlife.”

Osama’s biggest problem in Iraq is AQI. In those territories they have held, the terrorists have conducted themselves in the most brutal of fashions, forcing “marriages” on unwilling women and tribes, and cutting off the heads of children when their co-religionists resisted. AQI imposed Taliban-like shari’a law on a populace more cosmopolitan than the Afghans, who mostly resisted it as well, and freely tortured and killed anyone who didn’t like it.
The Sunnis know — now — that Osama’s threats are much less worse than the reality of AQI control. The entire organizations consists of lunatics and sadists using Islam as an excuse for their depravity. After allying with these foreigners in the first months and years after the American invasion, they quickly determined that they have a better chance of survival by killing as many of the AQI terrorists as they can, and that forced them into the arms of the Americans.
The more Osama threatens them, the closer the Sunnis will cleave to the US. American forces do not rape, pillage, and commit mass murder, which makes the choice pretty clear. And the more Osama threatens, the more he concedes that a defeat in Iraq will cripple his triumphalism and expose his organization as a tawdry army of serial killers and perverts, and not Allah’s Chosen. When that happens, Osama will find himself in more desperate straits than ever.

The religious connection between Iran and the Shi’ites in southern Iraq have caused significant concern of dissolution of the Iraqi federation. Not all Shi’ites in that region have a love of Iran, however. An op-ed in Kitabat, an Iraqi newspaper, calls any Iraqi Shi’ite cooperating with Iranian agents a “traitor”:

Any Iraqi Shiite who doesn’t frankly and publicly reject Iran’s interference is an Iranian agent, a traitor and a coward.
Any Iraqi Shiite who doesn’t boycott Iranian goods is a traitor and a coward.
Any Iraqi Shiite who doesn’t attack the nests of Iran’s intelligence agencies within Tehran’s embassies, consulates and charitable institutions is a traitor and a coward.
My Shiite brother, you now confront a great test of your patriotism, your honor and your loyalty to Iraq … declare with a loud cry your rejection of Iranian interference and prove to one and all that you are an honorable Iraqi patriot.

The author, a Shi’ite himself, uses typically florid Arabic prose to denounce his co-religionists who foster violence and sectarianism. We often wonder aloud why we hear few voices of reason and peace. This call to both in an Iraqi newspaper column seems fairly significant.
William Kerr notes briefly that the Iraqi Shi’ites have begun losing patience with the hardliners among them. They mostly want to return to a peaceful life and take the opportunity for prosperity that Saddam’s fall has allowed. They may have wanted revenge for the first few years on the Sunnis that oppressed them, but the result of the revenge has proven very unsatisfactory. Mostly, they don’t want Iranians, al-Qaeda, or any other foreign provocateurs causing murderous feuds; they just want to see what freedom will bring them.
The cease-fire of the Mahdi Army and the intercession of Iraqi government forces in the south appears to have given everyone an opportunity to take a deep breath. With Iran losing favor among the Iraqi Shi’ites, the momentum towards peace may build in 2008.

On Monday, Rep. Michele Bachmann told a press conference about an important pension bill passed by the Iraqi National Assembly. It got little press in the US, but it created economic stability for the Sunnis, who had lost their pensions after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Bachmann called it an important step towards reconciliation, as it requires the Sunnis to engage with the elected central government — and they appeared eager to do so.
Today, the Iraqi cabinet sent another significant bill to the National Assembly, and this should get more press:

The Iraqi cabinet approved a draft law on Wednesday that will offer a general pardon to thousands of prisoners in U.S. military and Iraqi custody, a government spokesman said.
“The cabinet has passed the general pardon law, which will define who is eligible to be freed from all prisons, both Iraqi and American,” spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh told Reuters. …
Iraq’s national security adviser, Mowaffaq al-Rubaie, said earlier this month that the draft law was aimed at boosting reconciliation between majority Shi’ite and Sunni Arab Muslims, locked in a cycle of violence.

Congress demanded a determination of prisoner status as a benchmark of political reconciliation last year. This bill would meet that goal, once passed by the parliament. It resolves the status of many of the 50,000 held by Iraq and the US, split almost evenly, many of whom got rounded up in the last year as part of the sweeps conducted by General David Petraeus as part of the surge.
The Sunni tribes want most of them released. As Reuters notes, most of them will never see trial anyway. They may have had little involvement in any insurgency, or acted at a lower level of criminality. Murderers will not go free, and foreigners will probably never see the outside of the prison. Given the dramatic changes on the ground since their incarceration, those pardoned will likely try to go home and take their part in the economic opportunities now arising, plus will want to protect their new pensions.
The National Assembly will probably take this up quickly, but will chew on it for a while to fine-tune the thresholds for release. Everyone knows that the current detention levels are unsustainable, and the question will be who gets released, and when. It will prove another significant step towards reconciliation, something that will cheer Americans …. if they get to read about it.

Minnesota’s Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has traveled to Iraq to spend Christmas with the troops. She held a press conference via telephone this morning. After some technical bumps, Bachmann spoke about her visit. In fact, I may have been the only blogger on the call — lots of regular media, such as the Strib, KARE-TV, Minnesota Network News, MPR, and more.
She began the day in Kuwait, and learned that the Kuwaitis have paid for the fuel used in the first three years of the war in Iraq. Bachmann flew into Ramadi on a troop transport so that she could see the city after its pacification. She took a tour with the new MRAP vehicles and observe the neighborhoods of the city, as well as talk with the American soldiers. Children played in the streets and new businesses have opened, including a new car dealership. It shows that the economic stability that has grown in Ramadi.
Bachmann flew into Baghdad in an Osprey. That demonstrates improved air security in the capital, where transport flights have had to use corkscrew tactics in the past. Her briefing included a political update; the National Assembly passed a pension bill, a critical step in reconciliation. That did not get much mention in the American media, but the Sunnis now have government pensions denied them after the fall of Saddam, which should alleviate much of the hostility.
General Petraeus believes that he is observing the “new Greatest Generation” in his troops. Great quote. He brought some Minnesota troops to meet Bachmann, and she’ll have lunch with them tomorrow.
Q&A:
Bachmann has not heard any fighting at all since she’s been in Iraq, neither in Ramadi or Baghdad. In July, she heard plenty of it. So far, no activity, although on Christmas they’re expecting some kind of violence as a “statement” from the terrorists.
She says she she “absolutely” sees tangible progress since her last visit, and the troops are saying the same thing. They say it’s nothing short of phenomenal.
Bachmann says that the troops are not complaining about the press; she heard plenty of complaints in July from troops of all ranks. Not any so far this trip. It had a demoralizing effect on the troops then, but she sees a buoyancy about the mission now that she didn’t before. It’s not “dancing in the end zone”, as everyone knows the game isn’t over. They know AQI still wants to get back into Anbar and will try it if we pull out too soon.
The importance of the pensions is hard to underestimate. The new pension bill allows a much more equitable dispersal of pensions among the tribes and regions, and it has encouraged the Sunnis to engage politically with the central government. This also allows us to work with Sunnis to repair and rebuild the infrastructure in the west. It’s too bad that it didn’t get more attention here in the US.

Given all the concern over the rift between Sunnis and Shi’ites in Iraq, would a show of unity be considered newsworthy? Would the American media report a march for peace along the border between sectarian neighborhoods in Baghdad if it attracted a thousand marchers? We should find out, as the Iraqis have provided the material if anyone wants to report on it (via SondraK and CapQ reader Stoo):

Approximately 1,000 Iraqi citizens, of both Shia and Sunni religions, joined together on the sectarian fault line in Rawaniyah, the Karkh District of Baghdad, to march with one another in what they called a “Peace March”, Dec. 19.
It was an Iraqi initiative to ease sectarian tensions, solely driven by Iraqi Neighborhood Council (NAC) and District Advisory Council (DAC) leaders and Sheiks from both religious sects in the area, said Capt. Marcus Melton, commander of Pale Horse Troop, 4th Squadron, 2nd Stryker Cavalry Regiment, attached to the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault).
With Iraqi Army and Iraqi policemen maintaining the security on the streets and within the crowd during the event, they were able to successfully complete the march for united peace among all Iraqis.

Silly string has become quite popular in Iraq. The soldiers originally started asking family members to include it in care packages in order to determine where tripwires had been installed by terrorists for booby traps. Children used it in this parade to celebrate the sharp decline in its need for security. It went along with drums, songs, and hope.
Will the American media report this? It occurred five days ago; the military put out a press release on it yesterday. A Google search on Rawaniyah shows only a few hits from blogs. It’s not too late for journalists in Iraq or their editors here in the US to report on a hopeful sign of ground-up reconciliation in the Iraqi capital. That is, if they have any interest in providing the same level of reporting for success and peace as they did for sectarian violence.

American soldiers found another example of the bloodthirsty depravity of al-Qaeda in Iraq two weeks ago but have just now revealed its extent. In an operation to clear AQI from Muqdadiyah, US forces found a mass grave nearby a torture facility that nearby Iraqis said belonged to the terrorists. They also found some weapons left behind in AQI’s haste to flee:

The grisly discoveries of the mass graves and torture center near Muqdadiyah, about 60 miles north of Baghdad, came during a Dec. 8-11 operation.
The torture center, which the U.S. military said it suspected was run by al-Qaida in Iraq, was found based on tips from Iraqis in the area, where the al-Qaida insurgents are very active. Graves containing 26 bodies were found nearby.
“We discovered several (weapons) caches, a torture facility that had chains, a bed – an iron bed that was still connected to a battery – knives and swords that were still covered in blood as we went in to go after the terrorists in that area,” said Army Maj. Gen. Mark P. Hertling, the top U.S. commander in northern Iraq.
Soldiers found a total of nine caches containing a surface-to-air missile launcher, sniper rifles, 130 pounds of homemade explosives and numerous mortar tubes and rounds, among other weapons.

Diyala remains troublesome. Many of the AQI terrorists driven from Baghdad and Anbar have wound up in this province, and they continue to cause trouble. Violence in Diyala has dropped between 40-50%, but that’s not quite as sharply as the rest of the country. They may have no place left to run, and Diyala may take longer to pacify than Anbar and Baghdad.
This week, though, violence has dropped even more than normal. The Muslim holiday Eid has begun, and this year it seems that Iraqis will celebrate it with an informal cease-fire. The holiday may give some breathing space to those who remain violent, perhaps an opportunity to change approaches.
It could be that AQI has taught Iraqis a hard lesson in violence and depravity. Iraqis tipped the US to the torture center, where the terrorists indulged their every cruel whim in the name of radical Islam. They provide an extreme example of what happens with extended insurgencies, and the Iraqis want stability and quiet. They want the torture rooms closed — and now they know who to call to accomplish that.

Moqtada al-Sadr may keep the Mahdi Army on the sidelines for another period of months. Apparently satisfied with the impact his unilateral cease-fire has had on his fortunes, Sadr may instead focus on his religious studies while mothballing his Shi’ite militia. The news has some scratching their heads:

Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr is considering extending a freeze on the activities of his powerful Mehdi Army militia, his official spokesman said.
“Yes, there is a chance that the freeze on the Mehdi Army will be extended,” Salah al-Ubaidy told Reuters late on Wednesday.
Ubaidy did not say how long another extension might last or why the group was thinking of extending a freeze that U.S. commanders say has helped ease overall levels of violence in Iraq.
Sadr, who led uprisings against U.S. troops in 2004 and whose militia were later described by U.S. commanders as their greatest threat, surprised both Iraqis and U.S. forces when he ordered the initial six-month freeze on his militia in August.

Sadr has proven a wily foe in Iraq, and one has to wonder what he hopes to gain from this decision. No one really understood his sudden decision to adopt the cease-fire, either, except that he had already tried fighting a smaller American force and lost badly. Sadr didn’t want to give the US another reason to go after him personally, and in fact fled the country when the surge started.
For that matter, what do his followers gain? When Sadr fled the country, people expected them to drop out in confusion and disgust, but that didn’t happen. He kept his militia together during a major purge, in which he eliminated elements that refused to follow his stand-down orders. Now he’s hinting that he may never use them as a militia, and they seem content for the moment to follow that order, too.
One hint may be in his new enthusiasm for his religious studies. He has long wanted to be taken seriously as a cleric, but lacked the formal training that Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has, as well as his standing. Sadr, who got marginalized by Nouri al-Maliki this year as a politician, wants to extend his influence through Islam, and it looks like he’s willing to be patient about it. The question will be whether he decides to follow the path of Sistani in taking a “quiet” approach to Shi’a and governing, or whether he wants to become another Ruhollah Khomeini.
The continuing existence of the Mahdi Army suggests the latter, as does his continuous engagement with Teheran. He may stop being a problem for us now — but in ten years, he may lead a coup attempt to make Iraq into an Arabic Iran.

In case we forgot Harry Reid’s fantasy of al-Qaeda “civil war” in Iraq from yesterday, Rep. Jim Moran (D-VA) reminds us why Democrats have gone out of their minds on the Iraq debate. Moran tells Congress during the funding debate that American troops “ethnically cleansed” Baghdad. No kidding (via The Corner):

“Sure, there’s less violence, but that’s because we’ve ethnically cleansed most of Baghdad.”

The UN and most of the rest of the world define ethnic cleansing as a form of genocide. Moran believes that American troops have conducted that crime in Baghdad as part of a pacification program. His words have no other meaning.
Of course, such an allegation is absurd on its face. Refugees streaming back to the capital put lie to such a scurrilous charge. In the next breath, Moran notes that the Sunnis stopped fighting us and started fighting al-Qaeda. Would they have likely made a choice to support the side committing genocide — or did they recognize who the real genocidal maniacs are?
The overall conduct of our military has been upright, honorable, and has given great credit to the nation. Unfortunately, despicable public servants such as Moran have no problem slandering them in order to score political points.

Yet another Democratic Congressman has returned from Iraq impressed by what he found. This time, Joe Donnelly (D-IN) says that he sees where Petraeus is heading, and that we will succeed if we persevere in the short term:

U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly returned from a second trip to Iraq in five months encouraged that the mission there is going better and that by 2009 the U.S. military’s role could be primarily as trainers and advisers.
“I feel we’ve made progress, and the other part is I feel we can see an end game in sight,” Donnelly, D-Ind., told reporters on a conference call Tuesday from Washington. “It isn’t we just keep plugging away in the hopes something will turn out right. Gen. (David) Petraeus is working a plan and we seem to be heading toward a place where the Iraqis can be self-sustaining and we’ll have a smaller presence in the background.”
Donnelly’s findings were in stark contrast to his visit to Iraq last July, when he said the only positive thing that happened in that country since the beginning of the war in March 2003 was the ouster of Saddam Hussein.

Donnelly made an interesting observation on reconciliation. Provincial governments have worked with each other more successfully than reported, doing better on pragmatic reconciliation than the central government in Baghdad. That may surprise some, as the media constantly talks about the lack of provincial elections. The government bodies in place appear to be delivering stability and security even without the elections, and the Iraqis are responding to the success.
Petraeus wants the force levels to return to pre-surge numbers by July, Donnelly says. He doesn’t have much choice; the rotation schedule dictates that. Donnelly believes we can draw down to 100,000 by the end of 2008, a number that will not sit well with his fellow Democrats. If they cannot get the numbers down farther than that before the 2008 elections, they will face a significant backlash from the anti-war activists, who may abandon the Democrats for Greens or independents instead in some races as a protest.
For the rest of us who want to see the mission succeed, Donnelly’s perspective shows that success is not a mirage or a Dick Cheney-inspired conspiracy. More hard work lies ahead, but we have the right strategy and the right leadership in place now to succeed.