In what must be a crushing blow to those on the Left who crowed about the positive Zogby numbers from the weekend for John Kerry, Zogby revised the numbers last night — and put the states right back to where they were in 2000:
Last night, habitual poll-watchers had new numbers to digest when John Zogby released results for a four-day poll that included some voters surveyed yesterday.
That poll showed Mr. Bush with a solid lead in Ohio (49 percent to 43 percent) and also ahead in Nevada (50 percent to 45 percent) and Colorado (49 percent to 47 percent), while Florida was a tie at 48 percent each. According to the final Zogby pre-election survey, Mr. Kerry was leading in Pennsylvania (50 percent to 46 percent), Wisconsin (51 percent to 45 percent), Iowa (50 percent to 45 percent), Minnesota (51 percent to 45 percent), Michigan (52 percent to 46 percent) and New Mexico (51 percent to 48 percent).
In every case, the state is leaning toward the party it backed in 2000.
In other words, Zogby has defaulted back to the base position. Who knows? Maybe he’ll be right, but the significance of the shifts (6 points in one day for Ohio???) tend to reinforce the notion that Zogby makes it up as he goes along. In every election, Zogby winds up having to make a huge correction in its numbers in the final hours. It’s easily one of the most unreliable surveys receiving wide attention.