Survey USA Shows Strib’s Polling Ineptness

Survey USA has just released its latest polling on Minnesota’s statewide races, and the results look much closer to previous polling than the Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s Minnesota Poll last week. The Strib’s in-house poll showed Rep. Mark Kennedy (MN-06) trailing Amy Klobuchar by a whopping 19 points and losing in almost every imaginable demographic category, despite national polling showing the gap to be between three to eight points. Survey USA’s results fall square in the middle of the national polls:
42% Kennedy (R)
47% Klobuchar (DFL) [Democrat-Farmer-Labor, the state’s Democratic Party]
8% Fitzgerald (I)
4% Undecided
Kennedy has a 15-point lead among men, a demographic that the MinnPoll showed him losing, and an 11-point lead in the 18-34 bracket, an unusual result for the GOP that did get reflected in the MinnPoll. Interestingly, 28% of self-described liberals support Kennedy over Klobuchar, almost identical to the proportion of self-described moderates. He also has a slight edge over Klobuchar in the African-American vote. The race is much, much closer than the Strib wants its readers to know; in fact, the gap only barely exceeds the margin of error.
Unfortunately for Mike Hatch, the Democratic nominee for governor, he cannot say the same for his race. The Strib’s MinnPoll had Governor Tim Pawlenty up by only two points over Hatch. The current DFL meltdown between Hatch and the just-departed DFL candidate for Attorney General, Matt Entenza, may have pushed Hatch down a few points, but the 14-point gap shown by Survey USA shows once again that the MinnPoll has serious flaws in methodology or reporting. Pawlenty beats Hatch in almost every demographic category, even among women, blacks, and hispanics. He thumps Hatch in every age category, and Hatch can only garner 50% of all self-described liberals.
Mark Kennedy’s campaign laughed off the Strib’s ridiculous reporting last week; now the entire state is in on the joke that the MinnPoll has become. One wonders what fairy tales the Strib will dream up next.