The AP report from yesterday was only one point off. USA Today reports that a new Gallup poll taken in the aftermath of Rathergate has Bush leading among registered voters by eight points and among likely voters by thirteen:

President Bush has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters, a new Gallup Poll shows. The 55%-42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year. Among registered voters, Bush is ahead 52%-44%.

The boost Bush received from the Republican convention has increased rather than dissipated, reshaping a race that for months has been nearly tied. Kerry is facing warnings from Democrats that his campaign is seriously off-track.

Gallup finds a statistically significant lead in both categories, which I believe is the first poll to show that so far this year for either candidate. Note that other polls that showed a drift back to the middle took their samples from last week, before Rathergate exploded onto the scene. I think that the forged memos have caused some of the centrists and independents to step away from the Kerry campaign, and until CBS comes clean on its sourcing, their stonewalling will continue to leave the impression that they're covering for someone significant to the campaign.

The methodology seems pretty solid, as one would expect from Gallup. The overall sample was over a thousand adults, whittled down to 935 registered voters and 767 likely voters. USA Today doesn't provide much information on internals, such as issues and leadership questions. Gallup's own report has more detail.

In the ten days since the last Gallup poll, Bush has gained 3 points among likely voters and 4 among registered voters. Interestingly, Bush's biggest gain has come from younger voters (18-49), where he has turned a one-point disadvantage last month into a thirteen-point advantage now. Bush even leads among seniors, turning a five-point deficit into a slim one-point edge. He increased his lead by the same amount among men and women, erasing the gender gap on which Democrats count.

The Democrats will scoff at this and call the results an outlier, but given the mainstream methodology, it's hard to laugh off a Gallup poll. The Democrats are in real trouble, and while Donna Brazile's quote about party "backbenchers" being the only ones pushing the panic button may be the official position, the flood of new "advisors" into the Kerry campaign tells a different story. The Democrats now know that they have nominated perhaps the worst candidate since George McGovern. And according to Gallup, so do the voters.

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Tracked on September 17, 2004 9:23 AM