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September 20, 2004
Kerry's New York Lead Only Five Points

As I reported last Thursday, polling shows a sea change occuring in New York, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by an almost 2-1 advantage. Rassmussen reports that John Kerry's lead in one of the most reliable blue states has dwindled to five points, just outside the margin of error:

John Kerry's lead in New York is down to single digits. The Empire State, among the bluest of the Blue States from Election 2000, is still in the Kerry column for our Electoral College projections, but the raw numbers are stunning.

Confirming findings found in other recent polls, Rasmussen Reports shows John Kerry leading George Bush by merely five percentage points, 49% to 44%. Four years ago, Al Gore defeated Bush to carry New York by a 25 point margin. Our last New York survey found Kerry up by 19 points.

Rassmussen has the race even closer than the Quinnipiac or Marist College polls of last week. Almost a quarter of the Empire State's Democrats now plan to vote Republican, at least for president.

John Kerry may be the only Democrat who could possibly be 21 points less popular than Al Gore in New York, where the Kennedy aura has extended for decades. If Bush continues to draw more New York voters, the Democrats should start preparing to distance their down-ticket candidates from the Kerry catastrophe. One of our own Minnesota Congressmen, Collin Peterson, is out ahead of the curve, quoted in the Grand Forks (SD) Herald as saying that Kerry "is not very popular in my district," and discusses how he plans to campaign around his party's top candidate.

Clearly, Kerry is rapidly becoming less popular in a number of districts.

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Posted by Ed Morrissey at September 20, 2004 6:20 PM

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