For what it's worth -- and with Zogby, not much -- George Bush moved back into a tie with John Kerry in the Zogby tracking poll, 45-45, after having trailed Kerry since the first debate:

Bush gained three points on the Massachusetts senator to move into a 45-45 percent dead heat in the latest three-day tracking poll of the White House campaign.

The focus of the tight race now turns to Wednesday's pivotal final debate in Tempe, Arizona, with both candidates hoping to take advantage of their last chance to court a national television audience of likely voters.

"A close race got closer," pollster John Zogby said. "I am not expecting anyone to pull away in this one -- at least not yet."

I remain highly suspicious of both Zogby's methods and results. Reuters reports one of the reasons; the new Zogby poll shows Bush with just a 35% job-approval rating, far below that of all other polls. This skewed result indicates a poor sample resulting from the on-line methodology used by Zogby. Most other polls have Bush's job-approval rating around the 50% mark, meaning that Zogby overpolled Bush haters by at least ten points. And yet the best Kerry can get is a tie.

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» 2004 Ellection: State Poll Analysis #7 from Secure Liberty
This is the seventh in a series with exclusive poll analysis from Tony Bauco. First the summary from Tony: As more post-Debate #1 polls come in, we see Bush's numbers slip. In most states it just doesn't matter. However, after digging into the numbe... [Read More]

Tracked on October 12, 2004 8:27 AM