In what will be a shock to the pundits who thought that Kerry won Wednesday's debate, the new Reuters/Zogby (ha!) poll shows that Bush picked up three points since then, extending his lead to four points over Kerry:

Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which included one night of polling done after Wednesday's debate in Tempe, Arizona. Bush led Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by only one point, 46-45 percent, the previous day.

An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise.

The difference between the two daily tracking polls is that now we start to see the effects of the debate, as one-third of the survey was taken the day afterward. Far from hurting Bush, the debate seems to have swung more independents and younger voters to the Republicans, while Kerry now only holds onto half of the Catholic vote:

The new tracking poll found Bush pulling into a tie with Kerry among Catholics and women voters, and moving slightly ahead with young voters. Kerry still holds a solid lead among seniors.

Put simply, Kerry cannot win with only half of women and Catholics supporting him. Both consituencies went solidly for Gore last time around in a losing effort. If Bush captures both of these blocs, Kerry's toast, and he knows it.

As I predicted, the polls would show within 96 hours that Bush won the third debate handily. Kerry's stumbles cannot be covered up by the mainstream media, and the Mary Cheney debacle -- especially the "shame" comment by Edwards' wife -- has his campaign reeling. When even Zogby acknowledges a GOP gain in momentum, you have to assume the other polls will be more dramatic.

As Jim Geraghty at Kerry Spot advises, watch carefully which states each candidate visits over the next three days. I predict that outside of Ohio, Kerry spends all of his time in Gore states, while Bush spends most of his in Gore states as well. Defense vs. offense -- it tells you what the professional polls really show.

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry is

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Reuters: Bush Up By Four After Debate:

» CQ has New Polls Results from Carnivorous Conservative
Captain's Quarters Combine Bush's pending trip to New Jersey with the new Zogby numbers can certainly pick up a Bush supporter in the face of all the IMO biased coverage of the debates. In what will be a shock to [Read More]

Tracked on October 15, 2004 6:55 AM

» Reuters/Zogby: Bush opens 4pt lead after debate from Airborne Combat Engineer
1215Z FRI 15OCT04. Reuters. Captain Ed had predicted the polls would show a Bush debate win, despite the efforts of the MSM to paint a Kerry win. At least one poll bears him out. President Bush opened a four-point lead [Read More]

Tracked on October 15, 2004 7:19 AM

» 2004 Election Poll Update #9 from Secure Liberty
We're bakc again with our exclusive feature, state poll analysis from Tony Bauco. Here's hsi summary of the latest polls: On the polls, Iowa and New Hampshire continue to slide closer to Kerry. Unless debate #3 has a major impact for Bush, both of th... [Read More]

Tracked on October 15, 2004 7:57 AM

» Bias? What Bias? from The Sparse Matrix
Media calls it for Kerry. The voting public calls it for Bush. Bias? What bias? LOOK! Over there! Mary Cheney's a lesbian! Halliburton! No blood for Oil!! [pant, pant] [Read More]

Tracked on October 15, 2004 2:19 PM

» Dog Trainer: Bush Got Walloped from damnum absque injuria
While most analysts seem to agree that last night's debate was either a Bush win or a draw, L.A.'s only major paper declared it a convincing win for Kerry. Anyone care to take any bets on that? Based on data collected in the days leading up to the... [Read More]

Tracked on October 16, 2004 12:44 PM