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October 21, 2004
Still More Madness: Gallup Has Bush Up By Six In Wisconsin

And now even more polling fun -- Gallup has George Bush leading John Kerry in the key blue state of Wisconsin by six points, 51-45, when matched head-to-head. When Nader is added into the mix, Bush extends his lead to eight points, 51-43. This polling took place between Oct 16-19, somewhat closer in than the Mason-Dixon polling and less of a weekend poll as well.

The demographics demonstrate a strong Bush surge with our neighbors to the East (head-to-head):

* Bush leads among men by 13 points and even edges Kerry among women, 48-47

* Bush leads in the 18-34 age bracket by seven, 52-45 (in the three-way, he leads by 10, 51-41) and 35-54 by 14. Kerry holds a five-point edge among seniors.

* Kerry leads substantially in Milwaukee (62-36), and edges Bush in the south by a single point (49-48), but everywhere else Bush leads by a wide margin, including the Milwaukee suburbs/exurbs (63-32).

* Bush leads all educational categories except post-graduate by margins outside the error range.

I think we can put Wisconsin in the Bush column along with Iowa, giving Bush an additional 17 electoral votes for November 2nd.

UPDATE: Gallup also has recent polling for Colorado that puts Bush ahead among likely voters by five points, 51-46, in a two-way race.

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Posted by Ed Morrissey at October 21, 2004 8:31 PM

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