And now even more polling fun -- Gallup has George Bush leading John Kerry in the key blue state of Wisconsin by six points, 51-45, when matched head-to-head. When Nader is added into the mix, Bush extends his lead to eight points, 51-43. This polling took place between Oct 16-19, somewhat closer in than the Mason-Dixon polling and less of a weekend poll as well.

The demographics demonstrate a strong Bush surge with our neighbors to the East (head-to-head):

* Bush leads among men by 13 points and even edges Kerry among women, 48-47

* Bush leads in the 18-34 age bracket by seven, 52-45 (in the three-way, he leads by 10, 51-41) and 35-54 by 14. Kerry holds a five-point edge among seniors.

* Kerry leads substantially in Milwaukee (62-36), and edges Bush in the south by a single point (49-48), but everywhere else Bush leads by a wide margin, including the Milwaukee suburbs/exurbs (63-32).

* Bush leads all educational categories except post-graduate by margins outside the error range.

I think we can put Wisconsin in the Bush column along with Iowa, giving Bush an additional 17 electoral votes for November 2nd.

UPDATE: Gallup also has recent polling for Colorado that puts Bush ahead among likely voters by five points, 51-46, in a two-way race.

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry is

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Still More Madness: Gallup Has Bush Up By Six In Wisconsin:

» Why is This Election Even Close? from Perpetual Notions
And I have a headline: Israel Has Already Failed the Global Test. Six and a half million people versus 150,000,000 ( my guess), and when nearly all of the rest of the world is rooting for the other team – can you think of a better way to repair our wou... [Read More]

Tracked on October 22, 2004 2:29 PM

» 2004 Election: State Poll Update #13 from Secure Liberty
This is the thirteenth in a series focusing on our continuing exclusive feature, Tony Bauco's analysis of all the state polls. We have a changed electoral college calculation again. As usual, we'll start with Tony's comments: A lot of new polls from ... [Read More]

Tracked on October 22, 2004 6:34 PM

» Poll Demographics for Wisconsin from On the BorderLine -- St. Croix County WI
The last Gallup poll released late last week had President Bush ahead by 6%. There are some interesting demographics regarding this poll. President Bush leads among men by 13%, as predicted, but also is ahead among women 48%-47%. He leads by 10% in ... [Read More]

Tracked on October 24, 2004 7:43 PM