CNN and Fox just called New Jersey for John Kerry with no precincts reporting, indicating that their exit polls must be rather strong. A good chunk of the northeastern Atlantic seaboard has been called for Kerry now, but that was expected. So far -- no surprises, although I'm surprised that so many of these have been called with no vote counts.

Florida so far shows rather strongly for Bush, but Miami-Dade and Palm Beach haven't reported yet. Nor has any of the panhandle, either. At this point, with 18% of the precincts reporting, Bush has an 11-point lead, a good head start. No numbers yet on Ohio or Pennsylvania.

UPDATE: South Carolina goes Bush, again no surprise. I'm not surprised by the caution being shown by Fox and CNN, but I am surprised at how quickly both have called a couple of states for Kerry without getting any vote counts first. Keep a close eye on them. Not alleging anything yet, and these states are expected to stay blue -- but it's worth re-checking later.

One interesting phenomenon is the popular vote. With Bush weak along the eastern seaboard, his 13-point lead there at this stage looks a little odd. It's not meaningful yet, but it's certainly unusual.

UPDATE II: Fox exit polling shows that Bush took the Hispanic vote by ten points in Florida -- very good news for the GOP.

UPDATE III: NBC calls North Carolina for Bush, even though there was a two-point gap with 6% of the precincts reporting. The Senate race looks like it's leaning towards the Democrat, Erskine Bowles.

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