With the two budget motions tabled today with the potential for a no-confidence result that could collapse the government -- in the middle of a royal visit from Queen Elizabeth II -- the developments in attendance and last-minute maneuverings have been dizzying. Last night's allegations of vote-buying by Tory MP Gurmant Grewal appeared to mirror those made earlier by MP Inky Marks, only this time Grewal made a tape of the conversation and named Tim Murphy, Paul Martin's chief of staff, as the initiator of the offer. Politics Watch reviewed the tape (available here from CTV), and Romeo St. Martin reports that Murphy used extreme caution in approaching Grewal:

At no time during the tape does Murphy make an explicit offer to Grewal, and he carefully chooses his words and speaks about hypothetical situations.

The tape suggests that Murphy is more interested in Grewal abstaining than having the MP crossover to the Liberal side.

Murphy also says that it is a "bad idea" to "have any kind of commitment that involves an explicit trade."

However, Murphy tells Grewal that there are "other members of your current caucus who are facing the same dilemna that you face," suggesting the Liberals have been talking to other Tories who may be considering crossing the floor or abstaining. ...

On the tape, Murphy proposes the concept of Grewal abstaining from the vote and using the following excuse, which sounds eerily familiar.

"That can be done on the basis, those members can do it on the basis, 'Well look, my riding doesn't want an election, doesn't want one now. Thinks it's the wrong time to do it.'" ...

On the tape, Murphy proposes the concept of Grewal abstaining from the vote and using the following excuse, which sounds eerily familiar.

"That can be done on the basis, those members can do it on the basis, 'Well look, my riding doesn't want an election, doesn't want one now. Thinks it's the wrong time to do it.'"

In other words, what Murphy wanted from Grewal was an abstention on the budget motions today, in exchange for consideration of quid pro quo at a later date. Perhaps Murphy had already anticipated the bad press Stronach's crossover would produce and its potential backlash among the critical independent MPs who hold the vote in balance. He may well be mindful of the problems within his own caucus if the sudden promotion of Tory MPs to lucrative appointmenst left some Grits understandably resentful and questioning of the career pathing these payoffs represent. (It looks like the best way to advance in the Liberal Party is to be a Conservative at budget time, these days.)

Stephen Harper has a problem, if one listens between the lines of this tape. Murphy might have three or four abstentions in his pocket for today's votes without Harper's knowledge. However, in a late development this morning, the second Liberal MP in a day has taken ill and may miss the survival votes Martin needs:

Independent MP Carolyn Parrish is in pain but will make the vote 'if she has to crawl,' a spokesman said Thursday.

Brian MacDonald, a spokesman at her Mississauga constituency office, said Ms. Parrish is in Ottawa and, although she is in pain, plans to attend the Thursday's crucial budget vote.

"You can quote me on this, she says she will make the vote if she has to crawl," Mr. MacDonald said.

Concern had emerged about Ms. Parrish's health after she told Canada AM early Thursday that she was ill, throwing doubt on her ability to make it to the House.

Canada feels Ms. Parrish's pain, waiting as they are for a resolution to the political crisis facing them in an almost-stalemated Parliament. The only prediction anyone can make now is that more potential vote-skewing developments will almost certainly occur between now and the vote.

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Tracked on May 19, 2005 12:43 PM