According to SES Research, whose polling usually tends towards the Liberals, Paul Martin now finds himself in deep trouble with less than three weeks to go before the election. The Tories have now opened up a gap nationwide on the Liberals, and outside of Quebec enjoy a nine-point advantage and poll over 40%. Even in the Liberal bastion of Ontario, where Martin and his party has to do well in order to gain the plurality needed to retain power, the Conservatives have actually pulled slightly ahead.

SES polling among decided Canadian voters shows the national breakdown:

CP 36% (+7)
LIB 33% (-4)
NDP 15% (NC)
BQ 13% (-1)
GP 4 (-1)

However, 17% of all respondents say that they have not yet made up their mind, giving the Liberals some hope for a rescue. The trend, though, points towards voters abandoning the Grits and deciding to support the Tories. After taking Quebec out of the equation, where Tory ally Bloc Quebecois will win the majority of seats and Liberals will likely take most of the rest, the gap almost puts Stephen Harper into majority-rule territory. The Tories now lead the Liberals 43-34, a six point gain for Harper and a five point drop for Martin since December 1st.

The momentum seems to have shifted strongly to Harper and the Tories. With financial scandals breaking out all around the Liberals, it now looks like Canadians have decided that Harper and his supposed "hidden agenda" doesn't scare them nearly as much as Paul Martin's continued access to the public purse.

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