Gallup reports that approval ratings for George Bush have staged a strong rally over the last nine weeks. In early May, Bush had only a 31% approval rating and a 65% disapproval rating. Now, however, his approval rating has reached 40% for the first time since February:

President George W. Bush's job approval rating has edged up slightly higher in Gallup's latest poll, and is now at 40% for the first since early February. The July 6-9 poll finds 40% of Americans approving and 55% disapproving of the job Bush is doing as president. After averaging 42% approval in January and early February, Bush's ratings began to decline in mid-February, ultimately dropping to his administration's low point of 31% in early May. Since that time, Bush's approval ratings have shown a slow, gradual improvement.

It sounds like a grudging admission from Gallup. Gaining nine points in as many weeks while knocking ten points off of his disapproval levels in the same period amounts to almost a 20-point swing. Moreover, the gain did not come strictly from his base. Although Bush gained ten points among Republicans during the two month span, he gained twelve points among independents, going from 26% to 38%. He even gained with Democrats, picking up six points from a laughable 4% to 10% now.

Bear in mind that Gallup polled all adults, not registered voters or likely voters, the latter of which gives the best predictive measurement of voter intent. The method used by Gallup usually returns lower ratings for Republicans -- and it still has Bush at 40%. Rasmussen, which has generated the most reliable numbers, has Bush holding steady at 43%/56% over the past three days, and up from a monthly rating of 40% in the months of April and May.

Why do we see this rather significant change? The debate about precipitous withdrawal has to be the overriding factor. The economy has changed little all year from its robust growth, and no major legislative victories have been achieved by the administration in the past two months. Immigration continues to roil the base. However, the attempt by the Democrats to force a cut-and-run strategy on the mission in Iraq appears to have reminded people of the stakes involved in the war, and the alternatives to Bush and the GOP in terms of leadership.

It looks like Bush has significant political momentum -- just in time for the midterms -- and the Democrats have handed it to him ... again.

IIPDATE: Fixed the bad bold tag ... I hope. I still can't see worth a darn, here. Thanks to the many people who e-mailed me to let me know.

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» Bush's Poll Numbers from Sensible Mom
I found a little break in the action and thought I would quickly post about the increase in President Bush's poll numbers. Someone has to since the media will only alert the public to a drop in his popularity. With [Read More]

Tracked on July 11, 2006 3:43 PM

» Bush's Poll Numbers from Sensible Mom
I found a little break in the action and thought I would quickly post about the increase in President Bush's poll numbers. Someone has to since the media will only alert the public to a drop in his popularity. With [Read More]

Tracked on July 11, 2006 3:45 PM

» Bush Approval Rating On The Rise from Say Anything
A trend I noticed in several polls back in June. PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush's job approval rating has edged up slightly higher in Gallup's latest poll, and is now at 40% for the first time since early... [Read More]

Tracked on July 12, 2006 8:23 PM