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July 19, 2006
How Deeply Are Iran And Syria Involved In Lebanon?

According to two news reports over the last twenty-four hours, Iran and Syria have provided their Hezbollah proxies a lot more than just cheerleading. Ynet News reported last night that the IDF had intercepted missile shipments coming from Syria, and the New York Sun's Ira Stoll says that "hundreds" of Iranian troops have joined Hezbollah's missile brigades. First the Syrians:

Although Hizbullah has suffered a harsh blow from Israeli air force strikes which took out a good percentage of their available weapons, Syria was continuing to smuggle arms into Lebanon to rearm the group, IDF Operations Branch Head Major General Gadi Eisenkot said during a press briefing Tuesday.

Thus far, the IAF managed to intercept a number of trucks transporting rockets from Syria to Hizbullah, including trucks laden with the 220mm-diameter rockets with warheads like the one that hit the Haifa train depot Monday, claiming eight lives. Maj.-Gen. Eisenkot said he would be very surprised if official elements in Syria were unaware of these transports.

“These are rockets that belong to the Syrian army. You can’t find them in the Damascus market, and the Syrian government is responsible for this smuggling,” Eisenkot said, but stressed, “We are not operating against Syria or the Lebanese army.”

The Iranians have something more personal in mind for assistance:

Hundreds of Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel are on the ground in Lebanon fighting Israel, security sources say. "I have no doubt whatsoever that they are there and operating some of the equipment," an Arab diplomatic source told The New York Sun yesterday.

Another foreign source, based in Washington, said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps contingent in Lebanon is based in Beirut and in the Bekaa Valley. He said the troops usually number a few dozen, but that the size of the force increased in connection with the hostilities that have broken out between Israel and Iran's proxy, Hezbollah, over the past week.

The sources said the Iranians had directly operated a radar-guided C–802 missile that Iran acquired from Communist China and that hit an Israeli navy missile boat off the coast of Lebanon on Friday, killing four Israeli seamen.

If true, it would certainly give Israel all the pretext it needs to engage Syria and/or Iran in the war. However, Ehud Olmert has proven himself quite the cool character. He intends on waiting out both Syria and Iran. Unless they give a very specific provocation, he will concentrate on Hezbollah; humiliating their proxy to the entire Arab world will be enough of a victory for the moment. Olmert knows that if either country makes the first attack on Israel, it gives him carte blanche in terms of his response -- and ours as well.

Unless the IDF captures Iranians or Syrians in uniform, expect Olmert to continue his mental battle with the dimwits in Damascus and Teheran. So far, he's winning handily.

Sphere It Digg! View blog reactions
Posted by Ed Morrissey at July 19, 2006 4:54 PM

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