The world's most celebrated younger brother has apparently come down with a case of shyness. Four days after Fidel Castro handed the reins of power to his brother Raul, the relief dictator has yet to make an appearance to his subjects. Raul's absence has triggered a sense of unease on the island, and people have begun asking questions about the nature of power on the island for the first time in decades:

In this island capital's long bus-stop lines and open markets, its offices and restaurants, the question keeps popping up: Where's Raúl?

Raúl Castro has yet to appear in public since being named temporary president of Cuba late Monday. His absence is adding a layer of intrigue to the speculation-heavy ambience that has settled over this city. It was two days ago that the Cuban government announced that Fidel Castro -- who is recovering from intestinal surgery -- would relinquish his 47-year hold on power to his younger brother.

"I think Raúl should have appeared by now, more than anything to calm the public and to show the world that everything is under control," said Joel, a taxi driver, who did not want to divulge his last name for fear of government reprisals.

Cuba's government has not made an official proclamation about Fidel Castro's health since late Tuesday evening, even as Cuban exiles and some U.S. officials have questioned whether the Cuban leader, whose 80th birthday is this month, has already died. The closest to an official statement was delivered in an unlikely forum on Wednesday when Ricardo Alarcón, the Cuban National Assembly president, told NPR's "All Thing Considered" that Fidel Castro would not return to power for "some weeks."

In a national crisis, the first action of any rational government -- especially personality-cult dictatorships -- is to assure people that the government is still in control. We have had our own experiences with that here in the US, after presidential assassinations, deaths, and illnesses. On one occasion, the impulse was strong enough to cause a great deal of embarrassment to Alexander Haig, who seemed to have forgotten that the Vice President outranked the Secretary of State.

If anything, governments err on the side of too much reassurance, not too little. Leaving the appearance of a power vacuum creates the same amount of danger as a real power vacuum, because under these circumstances appearances probably do not lie. And power vacuums invite all sorts of responses to the need to fill them.

After almost five decades in power, the Castro regime surely knows this. So why are Cubans being forced to ask where Dear Placeholder has hidden himself? One has to wonder whether the transfer of power to Raul went as smoothly as first indicated, and whether Fidel is in any shape to enforce it.

UPDATE: US News & World Report has an excellent Q&A on this topic with Brian Latell:

Q. Do you think Castro is signaling that he is nearly ready to step down?

A. I think it even goes beyond that. I think that Raúl Castro is now the senior partner in the Cuban leadership. The transfer of power actually began in early June, and now it's official. I have my doubts that Fidel is ever going to get back in the saddle and run things again the way he did. Even if he survives, I think his condition is going to be so weakened that Raúl is going to be running the show.

Q. Who is Raúl Castro, and how likely is it that he will retain the reins of power if Fidel abdicates or dies?

A. As I show in After Fidel, the first biography ever written about Raúl Castro, he lacks many of Fidel's leadership qualities. He doesn't do speeches very well, doesn't like to give speeches, doesn't have the same kind of direct contact with the Cuban people that Fidel has always had. He is not an intellectual like Fidel. He likes to stay in the background. But he has many other qualities that compensate. He is very, very smart, and he is powerful. He is the regime's best organizer, an experienced manager and organization man. He will run Cuba very differently, with a more collective leadership, sharing responsibilities--and titles--with other civilian and military officials. He won't be the constant center of attention, the single source of authority that Fidel has been all these years.

But I think it is likely that Raúl will retain power. He has the support of the three most powerful institutions in Cuba. He runs the military, the security and intelligence services, and is now the dominant force in the Communist Party.

Be sure to read the whole thing.

UPDATE II: Val at Babalublog also wants to play Where's Raul-do. He's hearing all sorts of conflicting reports, but he's staying on top of everything there. Be sure to keep checking back at Babalublog.

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