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August 5, 2006
Santorum Sneaking Up On Casey

Don't look now, but the one Republican incumbent in the Senate that the media has given up for dead may just be making a comeback. Real Clear Politics notes a new Pennsylvania poll that shows Rick Santorum has erased a double-digit deficit to Bob Casey and may have the momentum back on his side:

Santorum started closing the gap in late spring, those polls found, and seems to have momentum. An April Morning Call/Muhlenberg College survey showed Casey 8 percentage points ahead. Keystone had Casey up 16 points in February, and then 6 points in May.

To be sure, two other statewide polls still show the race to be a blowout. June surveys by Quinnipiac College and Rasmussen Reports both put Casey ahead by double digits.

But experts and the candidates themselves have long said they expected the race to tighten. And behind the horserace numbers, the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg College survey found evidence of other good news for Santorum -- fewer people view him in an unfavorable light than in the spring. And although President Bush remains a drag on Santorum and other GOP candidates, the drag appears to be lessening.

Rasmussen has, as the article states, Santorum behind by a wide margin still, and Rasmussen has proven fairly reliable. The July 26th poll showed Santorum down 11 points and still struggling with a 50% disapproval rating. Lynn Swann actually looked closer to Ed Rendell than Santorum to Casey. Both, however, still showed significant improvement over Rasmussen's June 19th poll, from which both candidates gained four points.

If this poll shows an accurate trend, Casey may have already peaked. He still has a slim majority in most polls, but his support looks weak. His "very favorable" rating only amounts to 14%, well below Santorum's 23%. The bulk of his approval numbers shows up as "somewhat favorable" at 42%, putting three-quarters of his support in a somewhat less than enthusiastic light.

The GOP could still hold Santorum's seat -- and if it does, it will be a major blow to Democratic hopes of a takeover in the upper chamber this November.

Sphere It Digg! View blog reactions
Posted by Ed Morrissey at August 5, 2006 8:15 PM

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» Morning Call Opinion I (The Blogs) from SantorumBlog
Ed Morrissey gets the first crack at commenting on the Morning Call poll. [Read More]

Tracked on August 5, 2006 10:28 PM

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» Around The Sphere August 6, 2006 from The Moderate Voice
Our periodic linkfest offering you links from sites of VARYING opinions. Posts linked do not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Moderate Voice or the... [Read More]

Tracked on August 6, 2006 1:20 AM

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