The Scotsman reports on the continuing absence of the Castro brothers in Cuba, noting the increasing unease felt by the island's residents at the lack of clear leadership for the first time in the lives of most Cubans. They'e not talking too openly about the situation yet, thanks to efforts by the secret police to spot anyone who may view this as a moment of opportunity:

Some Cubans, fed up with the hardships endured under Castro, and particularly since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, have found timid grounds for optimism in the handover, hoping for economic if not political change. ...

Officials have said Castro is recovering and would be back running the country within weeks or months. Reports last night said he was "walking, talking and receiving briefings." But there is anxiety about the fact that neither Fidel Castro, who turns 80 today, nor Raul Castro, 75, has appeared in public since July 31.

Dissidents, who accuse Castro of subjecting Cuba's 11 million people to collectivised poverty in a police state, said the state had activated its network of informants to detect any hint of protest and deter people from talking openly about the political situation.

This again begs the question: why hasn't Raul just simply made a public appearance and put an end to the speculation? The Cuban government appears to be going to a lot of trouble to keep people from discussing the apparent leadership vacuum, an effort that a Raul spotting would make superfluous.

Today is Fidel's birthday, usually a cause for national celebration. It would be inconceivable that Raul would not publicly celebrate his brother's birthday if Raul was capable of doing so. If he does not show up with a birthday cake somewhere in Havana and give a public show of support for his brother, Cubans will know that the jig is up.

And all of the secret police officers on the island will not keep them quiet after that -- which is exactly what the Cuban government fears.

UPDATE: Uh-oh -- it looks like the boss is back! bRight & Early spots a photo of Fidel in an AP release:

On his 80th birthday, Fidel Castro cautioned Cubans on Sunday that he faced a long recovery from surgery and advised them to prepare for "adverse news," but he urged them to stay optimistic. As the Communist Youth newspaper published the first photographs of the Cuban leader since illness forced him to step aside as president two weeks ago, Castro said his health had improved, but warned that risks remain.

"I feel very happy," said a statement attributed to Castro in the Juventud Rebelde newspaper. "For all those who care about my health, I promise to fight for it."

In the photos appearing in the online edition of Juventud Rebelde, Castro wears a red and white Adidas warm-up suit, looks a bit tired but is sitting up straight, his eyes alert.

One picture is a close shot of the leader posing with his fist under his chin and in two he is talking on the telephone.

The fourth photograph shows Castro sitting in a chair in front of a bed with a white spread in what appears to be a home, holding up a special supplement published as an homage to him on his 80th birthday in the Saturday edition of Granma, the Communist Party newspaper.

The adverse news may be that he is coming back. However, since I'm sure that Cubans will be happy to see him return -- in the same sort of way that Saddam Hussein got 100% of Iraqis to vote for him in 2002 -- I'm thinking that he's either preparing them for some dire news about his prognosis, or that something happened to Raul.

Or maybe it's that he's been kidnapped, since this seems to be a classic hostage photo:

Maybe Raul's holding him for ransom!

UPDATE II: The Florida Masochist remains skeptical.

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» Birthday at Bernies? from bRight & Early
I guess he looks alive. He’s probably getting ready to take a little jog on his 80th birthday. The picture is just ripe for some fisking, photoshopping (if it hasn’t been already) or captioning. ... [Read More]

Tracked on August 13, 2006 7:46 AM

» Adidas from The Florida Masochist
2- Note the clothes Fidel is wearing. How does a communist in a classless society get such obviously capitalist clothing? [Read More]

Tracked on August 13, 2006 9:11 AM

» El máximo líder is still alive from Globalclashes
Fidel Castro apparently is still alive. Some of his picture appeared in a newspaper in Cuba today to show Cubans that he was in good shape on his Eightieth birthday. My hope for Cuba is that it doesn't take the [Read More]

Tracked on August 13, 2006 10:15 AM

» El máximo líder is still alive from Globalclashes
Fidel Castro apparently is still alive. Some of his picture appeared in a newspaper in Cuba today to show Cubans that he was in good shape on his Eightieth birthday. My hope for Cuba is that it doesn't take the [Read More]

Tracked on August 13, 2006 10:18 AM

» Weekend at Castro's? Some Think Fidel Fotos Are Fauxtos... from RightWinged.com
Obligatory humorous photoshop... When I first saw the new Castro images on TV, I thought they looked a bit odd, but I DON'T believe they're photoshops. That hasn't stopped the rumors from flying though, including from Drudge: Okay, Drudge is... [Read More]

Tracked on August 13, 2006 10:19 PM