The war in Lebanon has fractured what little unity existed in the post-Syrian government in Beirut. While political differences got submerged in the fighting, they have returned with even more vigor after the catastrophe in the sub-Litani region. Various factions now threaten to contest for power in or out of the political system:

But now, two weeks into a shaky cease-fire between Hezbollah guerrillas and Israel, some of the big names of Lebanese politics are moving back onto the political stage. The result has been an open round of bitter political infighting and backbiting. Figures from various factions have attacked one another in newspapers and on talk shows.

The most vociferous has been General Aoun, who called this week for the resignation of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his cabinet. ...

Mr. Siniora refused to resign, saying: “Let these politicians rest. The government is staying, staying, staying.” In almost the same breath, he claimed Arab nationalist credentials by vowing, “Lebanon will be the last Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel.”

General Aoun struck back, telling the daily As Safir that “Siniora will pay the price of his stubbornness” and accusing the prime minister of working with “foreign countries” against Lebanon’s interests.

“This will happen very soon; he will not have time to pack his things because he will be forced to leave quickly,” General Aoun said, adding that he had warned of “dangerous repercussions” if the government did not resign.

“Now we will choose the appropriate time to achieve the desired change in our own way,” he asserted, setting off another round of recriminations between the March 14 group and his supporters.

This has been coming for a long time, ever since the March 14 group declined to confront Hezbollah. One cannot abide a state within a state and maintain stability in government. The UN Security Council recognized this and issued Resolution 1559, an order to disarm Hezbollah and transform it into a political party, which it then refused to do anything to implement. The Siniora government declined to ask for assistance in complying with the resolution, and we wound up with the war Hezbollah provoked.

Aoun clearly stated that he will take extra-legal action to remove Siniora from office. That would likely precipitate another civil war, a not-uncommon result from the collapse of a foreign occupation as recriminations fly between cooperators and resisters. A civil war would strengthen Hezbollah and Syria, allowing them to increase their influence in Lebanon to an even greater degree than what they enjoy now.

The only development that could stop another civil war would be a new popular movement for nationalism such as the one led by the son of the assassinated Rafik Hariri. Saad Hariri, however, has kept a low profile since the outbreak of the war. He escaped into Saudi Arabia for the duration and only recently returned to Lebanon. No one knows what that trip has done to his political standing, but neither Hariri nor his well-known associate, Walid Jumblatt, have made public appearances for weeks -- and that sounds as if they have little influence left to exert.

We warned at the outset of the Lebanon conflict that the war should have been directed at Syria rather than Lebanon if one wanted to eliminate the Hezbollah threat, and that Israel risked destabilizing a potential partner for security with its invasion. The Israelis took a calculated risk and reaped some benefits from their fight, but not enough to free Lebanon from its divisiveness and its endemic disunity. Now it appears the "good guys" may have ridden into the Lebanese sunset, and all of the other choices for power look like varying degrees of the same problem.

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