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October 9, 2006
North Korea Conducts Nuclear Test

North Korea conducted a nuclear test today that has set the world on edge, according to Pyongyang's announcement and confirmation through seismic monitors. The yield, however, looks almost impossibly small:

North Korea said Monday it performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test, claiming it set off a successful underground blast in a "great leap forward" that defied international warnings against the communist regime.

The reported nuclear test sparked condemnation from regional powers who said that, if confirmed, it would be a serious threat to regional stability. The U.S. called for immediate U.N. Security Council action. ...

South Korea's seismic monitoring center said a magnitude 3.6 tremor felt at the time of alleged North Korea nuclear test wasn't a natural occurrence.

The size of the tremor could indicate an explosive equivalent to 550 tons of TNT, said Park Chang-soo, spokesman at the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources — which would be far smaller than the nuclear bombs the U.S. dropped on Japan in World War II.

The atomic bomb that struck Hiroshima, Japan on Aug. 6, 1945, had the destructive power of about 15,000 tons (33 million pounds) of TNT.

Kim Jong-Il has threatened a nuclear test for some time, and in the last few weeks seemed serious about it. Many had doubted whether his nuclear program even existed, as the only evidence of an actual nuclear device was Kim's braggadocio. A North Korean test of its nuclear capability would show that the Kim regime had acquired the skill top not only produce the fissile material but also to construct the device itself -- a tricky bit of engineering. The test would have to demonstrate a significant yield in order to be convincing.

Right now, it looks like the North Koreans failed. The seismic activity shows a much smaller explosion than anyone would have predicted. The White House won't even confirm a nuclear test has taken place with the evidence at hand; in fact, only the Russians have confirmed the event as a nuclear test. American officials told the AP that it looks like "more fizzle than pop", given that its force only amounts to 1/30th of Hiroshima. In fact, with a yield that small, it's questionable whether it could possibly have been a nuclear explosion.

Kim had better hope it turned out better than indicated, because he has certainly reaped a whirlwind of protests. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who had issued a strong warning yesterday from his first state visit to Beijing, called it "unpardonable" from Seoul this morning. South Korea suspended critical aid shipments and announced that its military was "fully ready" to respond to Kim's provocations. Even China, which joined Abe yesterday in warning Kim about the nuclear test, says that Baijing remains "resolutely opposed" to the nuclear tests.

What now?

The US has demanded that the UN Security Council take action against North Korea, assumably in the form of a tough sanctions regime. It will be difficult for Russia and China to put them off any longer. Kim has not responded to diplomatic pressure, and worse, he's openly conducted an act of deep provocation. Japan will demand that the UN take significant action -- they have pressed the point more than any other nation over the last few months -- and the unspoken undercurrent of Japanese rearmament will be a powerful incentive for the stragglers. Abe, a nationalist under any circumstances, has already said that he wants to amend the Japanese constitution to allow for more military options, and the Japanese people will see this nuclear test as a good reason to do so.

That will set off an arms race throughout the region, which will threaten the power of the two large Asian nations. Russia and China cannot afford to have their backyard go nuclear, especially with Japan leading the way. The window of opportunity for them to allow action will be small; Japan has all the technical knowledge they require to go nuclear in a very brief period of time. If the UN refuses to act based on Russian and Chinese intransigence, all rogue nations will understand that the global community will not act in the face of obvious nuclearization, and act accordingly. The West will have to make a decision about whether it can abide that, or whether the UN no longer serves any useful purpose and resolve to act on its own to neutralize the threat.

The stakes have been raised to the highest level. Kim had better hope that he's got more than just a pair of deuces in his hand.

Sphere It Digg! View blog reactions
Posted by Ed Morrissey at October 9, 2006 4:51 AM

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