The New York Times has a new election-projection site that covers the Senate, House, and governor races from all around the country. Dan at Riehl World View points out that the Gray Lady seems to have a much different analysis than what we've seen from conventional wisdom, and that the GOP seems to be in the thick of it yet.

In the Senate, the NYT shows that the GOP has 47 solid seats with two leaners: Virginia and Arizona. That might come as a surprise to Arizona Senator Jon Kyl, where he has held a solid lead on Jim Pederson the entire campaign. Rasmussen has Kyl with a double-digit lead in its last two polls. Democrats only have 40 solid seats, with eight leaners, including Minnesota. The latest MinnPoll shows Klobuchar up by over 20 points, which is laughable, and even the NYT understands that. Other leaners include Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Montana, all of which have credible Republican incumbents. Only three states are toss-ups, according to the Times, and those look suspicious to me. Missouri is one of the states, and Jim Talent has started to pull away from Claire McCaskill.

The House looks just as tight despite the supposed tidal wave of blue poised to roll across America. When one counts the solids and the leaners, the Democrats have a one-seat edge (210-209) with 16 seats in play. All 16 have Republican incumbents, including Curt Weldon, who has strong national-security credentials. It seems unlikely that any group of incumbents will wind up with only a 50% success rate for re-election, which makes it seem at least probable that the GOP could hold the majority after the midterms -- albeit a much smaller majority.

We may wind up seeing a much smaller correction than first anticipated. Keep your eye on the Times projections as we get closer to the election.

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The New York Times has a new election-projection site that covers the Senate, House, and governor races from all around the country. Dan at Riehl World View points out that the Gray Lady seems to have a much different analysis [Read More]

Tracked on October 16, 2006 9:24 AM