Condoleezza Rice wants to make sure that the application of sanctions do not create an opportunity for unnecessary confrontation, hoping to avoid provoking North Korea into a military response. In what might be a sop to China, Rice has asked nations to inspect North Korean goods on their own territory rather than stopping shipping or attempting to bar material at a border:

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will urge the countries of northeast Asia to create a strict system of radiation monitoring and inspections to prevent North Korea from smuggling nuclear materials into or out of the country, a senior State Department official said Tuesday.

But in what appears to be an effort to cajole China to enforce the new United Nations sanctions against North Korea aggressively, the United States will ask the countries to focus their efforts on conducting inspections in their own territories, including ports, and on suspicious ships, trucks and aircraft rather than every piece of cargo.

China has been concerned about taking too harsh a stance against North Korea, and its ambassador to the United Nations has said it will not interdict ships.

China has reportedly taken the sanctions fairly seriously. They continued to construct a border barrier between themselves and North Korea, and started stopping trucks at the checkpoints for inspections. That's more than most thought China would do, and they made sure that everyone can see the effort they make towards applying the sanctions.

While the application of the sanctions has a great deal of importance, the request for nuclear detection equipment shows that the real issue is an illicit transfer of nuclear material outside of North Korea. Kim Jong-Il has a reputation as a proliferator of conventional weapons, and with his nuclear program able to generate weapons-grade material, Rice wants to stop that particular export before it starts. Radiation detection sensors could flag such cargo before it falls into the hands of terrorists. That equipment hardly qualifies as provocative, and the US can reasonably expect nations such as China and Russia to comply with the request.

No one wants a war on the Korean peninsula, and Kim knows that. Rice, however, wants to get compliance in terms that will give Kim no grounds for claiming an infringement on his sovereignty. Absent a provocation, Kim cannot launch a war against anyone without a potentially career-limiting reaction by the Chinese. China, as I have written on a number of occasions, holds the key to the entire issue. China could snuff out Kim's regime, and probably Kim himself, with just a few well-placed calls to the DPRK Army leadership. If Kim goes too far off the reservation, that's exactly what will happen.

Rice wants Kim boxed into compliance or abdication. As long as we keep the Chinese engaged, we can make it work. That's why bilateral talks with Kim is such a ridiculous suggestion. Kim doesn't want American security guarantees; he wants a free hand in the region, and the Americans won't leave. He wants China to drive us off, which they would have done with delight, but they know we won't leave with Kim's nuclear ambitions unchecked. Kim has turned into a liability, which both Beijing and Kim himself now understand.

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry is

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference The Non-Confrontational Approach To Sanctions:

» The Non-Confrontational Approach To Sanctions from Bill's Bites
Condoleezza Rice wants to make sure that the application of sanctions do not create an opportunity for unnecessary confrontation, hoping to avoid provoking North Korea into a military response. In what might be a sop to China, Rice has asked [Read More]

Tracked on October 18, 2006 7:00 AM

» First Cup 10.18.06 from bRight & Early
... [Read More]

Tracked on October 18, 2006 10:20 AM

» NK Postulation: Methodology of Mayhem from Mensa Barbie Welcomes You
In sociology, 'fear' societies such as NoKO are noted for their necessity of having an 'enemy,' whether that enemy is external or internal, in order to justify and consolidate their legitimacy with a disaffected population. Captain Ed explains: [Read More]

Tracked on October 18, 2006 7:43 PM