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October 23, 2006
Iraq: Don't Panic

The elected government in Iraq has hit the road, trying to keep its Western allies from panicking and retreating in reaction to a spike in violence over the past month. Deputy PM Barham Salih met with British ministers in an attempt to shore up Coalition resolve:

Salih, in London for talks with British Prime Minister Tony Blair and other British ministers, made clear his anxiety about the change in tone in London and Washington, where senior figures are questioning whether the current strategy in Iraq is viable.

"I'm obviously concerned about the debate both in the U.S. and Europe, I have to say, because there is too much of a pessimistic tone to this debate -- even I would say in certain circles a defeatist tone," he told BBC radio.

"We need to be realist but not defeatist. We need to understand that there is a need of utmost urgency to deal with many of the problems of Iraq but we must not give in to panic."

Eighty-three American servicemen died this month, a high for 2006, and this summer's plan to pacify Baghdad has not had the success it promised at first. The violence has spread out to Anbar, where an agreement with the various tribes of the region may have some pacifying effect. All of this has contributed to moves in both London and Washington that signal a retreat may be in the offing. Tony Blair has started talking publicly about a deadline for withdrawal, and Washington has buzzed about the James Baker-led Iraq Study group and its possible recommendations.

Salih understands that this lack of resolve will likely be fatal, in both the political and literal senses, for his government. The Islamists and the Ba'athist remnants will see the Western recalculations as a moment of hope and opportunity for a violent overthrow of the popularly elected government. The Iraqis might not like having American and British troops keeping order to the extent they have, but they also understand that a pullout would likely mean the collapse of all popular control of Iraq. If that happens, the people who participated in the representative government will be, in the parlance, the first up against the wall.

We have a duty to ensure that this does not happen. If the current strategy has not worked, then we need to try another strategy -- but it can't be a bug-out, no matter whether one calls it a retreat or a "phased redeployment over the event horizon". Any such retreat will force Iraqis to rethink their allegiance to the government they elected, and that will cause the entire country to become a free-for-all that will produce leaders who most effectively use violence and terrorism to control the country. It will either produce a Taliban-like state, another Saddam, or a Somalia ... and all with tremendous oil revenues to fuel these wars.

A precipitate withdrawal will do exactly what our withdrawal in 1991 did; it will require us to spend billions of dollars every year to contain Iraq, this time to keep terrorists from escaping. The only long-term strategy for Iraq has to be victory.

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Posted by Ed Morrissey at October 23, 2006 5:42 AM

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» Iraq: Don't Panic from Bill's Bites
Iraq: Don't PanicEd Morrissey The elected government in Iraq has hit the road, trying to keep its Western allies from panicking and retreating in reaction to a spike in violence over the past month. Deputy PM Barham Salih met with [Read More]

Tracked on October 23, 2006 12:07 PM

» Article: IRAQ- Uniting Against the Jihadis from Mensa Barbie Welcomes You
A significantly positive article (below) -Ht: Strata-Sphere; shows the greater picture of our commitment towards the Democratic Freedoms of the Iraqi people...Captain Ed posts- Iraq: Don't Panic... [Read More]

Tracked on October 23, 2006 3:35 PM

» Article: IRAQ- Uniting Against the Jihadis from Mensa Barbie Welcomes You
A significantly positive article (below) -Ht: Strata-Sphere; shows the greater picture of our commitment towards the Democratic Freedoms of the Iraqi people...Captain Ed posts- Iraq: Don't Panic... [Read More]

Tracked on October 23, 2006 3:53 PM

» Article: IRAQ- Uniting Against the Jihadis from Mensa Barbie Welcomes You
A significantly positive article (below) -Ht: Strata-Sphere; shows the greater picture of our commitment towards the Democratic Freedoms of the Iraqi people...Captain Ed posts- Iraq: Don't Panic... [Read More]

Tracked on October 23, 2006 4:15 PM

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