The Washington Post poll wasn't the only one to pick up on a shift in momentum, as it turns out. Gaius Arbo at Blue Crab Boulevard points readers to the latest from Pew Research, which now shows the generic Congressional ballot within the margin of error:

A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.

The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult. ...

Republican gains in the new poll reflect a number of late-breaking trends. First, Republicans have become more engaged and enthused in the election than they had been in September and October. While Democrats continue to express greater enthusiasm about voting than do Republicans, as many Republican voters (64%) as Democratic voters (62%) now say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election. About a month ago, Democratic voters were considerably more likely than GOP voters to say they were giving a lot of thought to the election (by 59%-50%). As a result, Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats, as is typical in mid-term elections.

Pew has good news for the GOP across the board. It shows that the Republicans have picked up support not just from their own base, but also from independents. Democrats still lead among unaffiliated voters, but the gap has narrowed from 18 points to 11. Over the last six weeks, Democrats have lost six points off of the generic ballot, some of which went to the GOP and some of which went into the Undecided column. And Pew says that Republicans have an edge among the latter group as well.

The elections seem to have turned around somewhat. It should be an interesting 48 hours.

UPDATE: Gallup also detects a momentum shift, and like Pew, they have settled on John Kerry's remarks as the likely culprit (via AJ Strata):

President Bush's last-ditch push for votes and Sen. John Kerry's comments that seemed to denigrate the education level of U.S. forces in Iraq have helped energize GOP voters. A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7.

A Pew Research Center survey released Sunday also showed that an 11-point edge for Democrats on the congressional ballot two weeks ago had narrowed to 4 points among likely voters. "It's gone from a slam-dunk for Democrats to take the House to a pretty good chance," says Andy Kohut, director of the center.

Kerry. The gift that keeps on giving.

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» Major News from Blue Crab Boulevard
According to this article, the latest Pew Research poll confirms that this election just made a very, very sharp break toward the Republicans. I cannot access Pew right now - the server appears to be down. This is enormous news and shows an e... [Read More]

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GOP within four on Pew’s generic ballot,Pelosi preemptively alleges vote-rigging;Update: Gallup sees Dem lead shrink by sixAllahpundit This, combined with that WaPo poll released this morning, makes it a two-alarm fire with Gallup still to come later... [Read More]

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» LATE POLLING TRENDS from Texas Hold 'Em Blogger
It may be too little, too late for the Republicans, but there are some late polling trends that are showing good news for the GOP in its battle to hold onto control of Congress. Via Charlie Sykes, Powerline has weekend Mason-Dixon polling results that ... [Read More]

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