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December 4, 2006
It's The Electability, Stupid

Rumors have swirled around HIllary Clinton regarding her presumed run for the presidency in 2008, with some saying that a Barack Obama run will keep her out of the race and that she has not discovered the inner fire for the grueling campaign, a la Mark Warner. Now, however, she's begun meeting with Democratic power brokers, indicating that she's plowing ahead -- but Democrats do not appear completely thrilled by the prospect.

So who's meeting with Hillary?

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has begun a calculated series of meetings with top New York Democratic officials to signal that she is likely to run for the presidency in 2008 and to ask for their support if she does, according to one state Democratic official who spoke with her and two others who have been briefed on her plans.

Senator Clinton met last week with Charles B. Rangel, the dean of the New York Congressional delegation, in what her advisers said was an effort to meet with most New York Congressional Democrats by the end of this month to discuss her plans.

On Friday, she also spoke with Herman D. Farrell Jr., the chairman of the State Democratic Party, Mr. Farrell said, and she plans to meet with Governor-elect Eliot Spitzer as early as today. Mr. Farrell confirmed that Senator Clinton briefed him on her 2008 intentions; Mr. Rangel declined to describe their conversation.

Senator Clinton’s outreach was disclosed and confirmed yesterday by three New York Democratic officials, all on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized by the Clinton camp to release the information. One of the officials said he was contacted by Senator Clinton directly about her plans. The two others said they were informed by senior Clinton advisers that she was entering a new phase of contacting officials to line up support for a possible presidential bid.

According to the New York Times and their sources, she appears enthusiastic and committed to the campaign ahead of her. She did not exude any sense of indecision or reluctance to engage in a two-year grind for the White House. The NYT, her most proximate newspaper, also fails to mention reservations from others about a Hillary run, although they acknowledge her "controversial" nature. The AP, via ABC News, gets more to the point:

Despite her centrist six-year Senate voting record, Clinton's reputation remains deeply rooted in her polarizing eight years as first lady. Skeptics say she may still be too liberal for many voters, who recall her husband's scandal-plagued presidency and her own audacious effort to reform the nation's health care system. And no one knows how her status as the first serious female candidate would play out.

"Everyone knows Hillary Clinton can raise the money and that she has a good team, but it's mitigated by all the mumbling that she's not electable," said Joe Trippi, who managed Howard Dean's upstart 2004 presidential campaign. ...

Dick Harpootlian, a former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party not aligned with any presidential hopeful, is among the nay-sayers. "She's a senator, she'd be the first woman running, and she's Hillary Clinton," he said. "All of that is almost insurmountable for a general election."

He added: "There are people who would write a check and die for her, but there are plenty of others who wouldn't vote for her if she promised to eliminate the income tax and give free ice cream to everyone. People have made up their minds about her, and that doesn't give her much room to maneuver."

The AP doesn't bother with unnamed sources; they get Democratic power brokers on record to talk about her lack of electability. They also counter with the troika of Clintonistas that have rallied to her defense -- James Carville, Mark Penn, and Chris Lehane. All of them argue that her negatives have been overestimated. Lehane remarked that Clinton has gotten more of a test than John McCain in national politics. The other two noted that Hillary could help win states where Democrats narrowly lost in 2004 by expanding the gender gap.

The mere fact that these three notorious Clinton apologists have to make these arguments shows the difficulty that Hillary will have in the upcoming campaign. Lehane has the silliest argument. Clinton won two terms in the Senate by carpetbagging to New York. McCain has won election to the Senate since the 1980s. He also ran a tough campaign for the presidency in 2000, placing second to George Bush but winning a couple of states along the way. As for Hillary's expanded reach among women, that may well be true and could tip some contests. However, it will have to counteract the issues she has in repelling voters from both genders due to her attempt to socialize medicine the last time she was in the White House, as well as her general lack of warmth and charisma.

After twenty years of Bush and Clinton presidencies, the American public wants a fresh face in the executive. Bill Clinton may be wildly popular as an ex-president, but I doubt that Americans want him to return to the White House as First Spouse in the same numbers. A Hillary run will remind voters of more than just the health-care initiative -- we'll get the travel-office firings and phony prosecutions, and the Rose Law Firm records, and every other scandal revived in a national campaign, and not just by Republicans. Democrats will see Hillary as a money vortex that could kneecap other, more viable candidates and will press back hard to find someone with less baggage instead.

Even with attack dogs like Carville and Lehane, Hillary will find it hard to convince people of her electability. That didn't stop the Democrats from nominating John Kerry, one of the biggest stiffs to run for the White House in living memory, so that may not preclude them from actually nominating Hillary. It will, however, keep them from winning the White House if they do.

Sphere It Digg! View blog reactions
Posted by Ed Morrissey at December 4, 2006 5:31 AM

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