Belarus has decided to call Vladimir Putin's bluff on the standoff over energy prices and transit rights. Instead of acquiescing to Putin's demand for half of Belarus' revenues from its pipeline service to Europe and a doubling of their own energy prices, Belarus has threatened to shut off the pipe altogether, interrupting service to Europe and cutting off revenues to Gazprom:

Belarus has implicitly threatened to stop Russian gas deliveries through its pipelines to Western Europe unless Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom takes back its demand that Minsk pay steep price increases in 2007.

"We are inter-dependent. If I don't have a domestic gas supply contract, Gazprom won't have a transit deal," Belarus's Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko said at Minsk airport late on Tuesday after his return from failed talks in Moscow.

About 80 percent of Russian exports to Europe are pumped via Ukraine, with the rest going through Belarus. Russia supplies a quarter of Europe's gas to more than 20 countries.

If that's implicit, then I'd hate to hear an explicit threat. The Belarussian envoy made it pretty clear that Russia needs to consider all of the implications of its threats. The Belarussians may figure that they have nothing to lose from their brinksmanship, considering the difficulty they will have in paying the new prices. Dictator Alexander Lukashenko has already started warning people to find alternate means of heating their homes this winter, and that will be even more urgently necessary with the latest developments.

Putin may withstand a standoff better than Belarus, but that will only be seen in the event -- and Putin has a lot to lose in Belarus besides some energy sales. Lukashenko may well decide to play footsie with the West, a move that could put an end to Putin's long-range goal of reabsorbing Belarus. He already has NATO members on his borders in the Baltics, and Ukraine could also eventually go that way. A breakaway Belarus could isolate Putin even more from Europe and threaten his influence on the entire region, especially in the Caucasus, where Putin has enough trouble.

Europe may feel constrained by a potential energy crisis, but Belarus only accounts for 20% of their imports. Putin could try driving the difference through Ukraine, but that would give Victor Yushchenko even more leverage than he has now, after facing down a similar situation last year with Putin. The Russians have the ball in their court now, and they have to decide whether losing 20% of their revenue this year and possibly losing all influence in Belarus is worth the price hikes and the shakedown racket that Putin wants to implement.

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