« Jordan, The Knights Of Justice, And Days Of Skepticism | Main | Baghdad Surge Targets Political Figures »
The 2008 primary campaign still seems pretty young to lend much weight to state by state polling -- but we won't let that stop us from having fun with it anyway. Quinnipiac released its results for Florida, a key state for both parties and a must-hold for the GOP. Rudy Giuliani came out on top in the poll, besting Hillary Clinton within the margin of error, the only Republican to do so:
In an early look at the 2008 presidential race in Florida, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has a razor-thin 47 - 44 percent lead over New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, while Sen. Clinton edges Arizona Sen. John McCain 47 - 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
These results are close to those in a January 30 poll of Ohio voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll, where Clinton squeaks past McCain 46 - 42 percent and edges Giuliani 46 - 43 percent. ...
Giuliani gets 29 percent of Florida Republican primary voters, with 23 percent for McCain, 14 percent for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and 6 percent for Romney.
"Rudolph Giuliani runs very well in Florida, which is considered to be a socially conservative state, despite his support for abortion rights, gay rights and gun control," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Whether that is because they don't know about his stand on those issues or don't care will be the key question as the campaign unfolds."
Head-to-head results are probably the least reliable in surveys at this stage of the race, especially general-election match-ups. Primary race polling may have a little more value, but part of the problem is that Republican voters don't know some of the candidates well enough to form an opinion of them, which makes their predictive value low.
A better indicator of the race is the favorability quotient of each candidate. Giuliani comes out on top here as well, with a +40 and 20% who don't know him well enough, the latter a moderate surprise, given Giuliani's high public profile and the number of New York transplants in the state. Even more interesting, Giuliani has a +4 quotient among Democrats, and a +39 among independents, which indicates a lot of strength at the center.
Hillary has problems there. She's only at a +12 in Florida with 10% not having an opinion, and among Republicans, she's a -62. Independents have her at a break-even for favorability, a huge disadvantage for her against Giuliani. Barack Obama gets a +19 overall, with 44% needing more information, and John Edwards has a +17 with 27% still looking to make up their mind. That points to a wide-open Democratic primary, with Obama having the most opportunity to steal a state from Hillary.
Two politicians scored negatively on overall favorability. Al Gore has a -1, but Newt Gingrich had the toughest time in Florida, with a -22. That seems rather surprising, as Florida has a reputation for conservative voters and politics. That could also result from the wait-and-see strategy adopted by the former Speaker, but if he decides to enter the race, he'll have to spend a lot of time in this state.
One more interesting note: Mitt Romney is a massive cipher in Florida. More than 75% of respondents need more information on Romney, which gives him an opportunity to establish a political identity on his own terms to a greater extent than any other candidate. If he can tailor his message to the center-right electorate in Florida, he could challenge Rudy Giuliani for this critical state.Sphere It View blog reactions
TrackBack URL for this entry is
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Florida Shines For Giuliani:
» THURS FEB 8 Cute Alert, Another Immigration Rant, Wierd Fish Story from The Pink Flamingo
Tracked on February 8, 2007 10:00 PM
» Rudy 2008 [weekend open trackback] from The Right Nation
MSM Round-Up: City Journal, Fox News (Special Report with Brit Hume), Fox News (Hannity & Colmes), New York Post, Forbes, Real Clear Politics (2), Denver Post, Chicago Tribune, FrontPage Magazine, Daily Mirror, National Review, France24, The Hill, Sk... [Read More]
Tracked on February 9, 2007 6:53 AM
My Other Blog!
Comment Moderation Policy - Please Read!
Skin The Site
Shot In The Dark
Northern Alliance Radio Network
Northern Alliance Live Streaming!
Des Moines Register
International Herald Tribune
The Weekly Standard
The New Republic
AP News (Yahoo! Headlines)
Guardian Unlimited (UK)
New York Times
Los Angeles Times
Design & Skinning by:
m2 web studios
- dave on Another National Health Care System Horror Story
- brooklyn on Hillary Not Hsu Happy
- rbj on Hillary Not Hsu Happy
- Robin S on Requiem For A Betrayed Hero
- Ken on Hillary Not Hsu Happy
- Robin S. on Requiem For A Betrayed Hero
- RBMN on Hillary Not Hsu Happy
- NoDonkey on Another National Health Care System Horror Story
- Robin Munn on Fred Thompson Interview Transcript
- filistro on When Exactly Did Art Die?
Proud Ex-Pat Member of the Bear Flag League!