March 26, 2007

Poll: Thompson Pulls Giuliani Votes, McCain Holds Steady

USA Today and Gallup offer their latest in polling for both parties in the extended presidential primary race, and a couple of changes have raised eyebrows. First, even the rumor of a bid by Fred Thompson has dented Rudy Giuliani's momentum, while John McCain's decline in support appears to have leveled off:

On the Republican side, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson shook up the field with his announcement that he would consider getting into the presidential race. Thompson is familiar as the actor who plays District Attorney Arthur Branch on NBC's Law and Order.

Chosen by 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, Thompson is third in the Republican field. He trails former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, at 31%, and Arizona Sen. John McCain, at 22%. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich is at 8%.

Thompson's support seems to come largely from voters who had supported Giuliani. In the USA TODAY poll taken March 2-4, Giuliani's standing had been 13 percentage points higher, at 44%. McCain's support had been 2 points lower then.

What does this mean? Conservatives who have supported Giuliani for his leadership and electability -- and plenty of them have -- would desert Rudy if a credible, consistent conservative entered the race. Some may have reservations that Thompson would fill that role, even if he did run, but his eight years in the Senate have left a more credible sense of consistency and center-right politics than Giuliani brings to the race. And according to the Post's blog The Sleuth, Thompson has begun seriously considering a run -- and has met with GOP powerhouse advisor Ed Gillespie.

What about McCain? For the first time in months, he has picked up support. After peaking at 28% support in December, McCain steadily fell until hitting 20% earlier this month. The rebound has come at the same time that McCain has increased the access to his campaign for both the press and bloggers; one can read some of the results here, here, here, and here. The warm receptions that McCain receives at his own rallies hardly surprises -- after all, this is a rather self-selected group -- but McCain obviously wants to reverse the perception that he has issues with bloggers. (He could do that better by reversing the BCRA -- but that's another story.) As far as I know, though, McCain has done the most to get bloggers the same kind of ride-along access that the national media gets on presidential campaigns.

Romney fared poorly in this poll. Three weeks ago, he had garnered 8% of the vote, enough for a distant fourth place behind Giuliani, McCain, and Newt Gingrich. In the latest poll, he lost more than half of that support, dropping back to an in-the-noise 3%, tying him with Sam Brownback. That has to be disappointing, especially since Hugh Hewitt's political biography and Romney's appearance at CPAC should have set the stage for a significant boost. Has Thompson's potential disrupted Romney's momentum as well? Possibly.

(links via Hot Air)

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Comments (23)

Posted by Mwalimu Daudi [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 26, 2007 9:30 PM

As far as I know ....... McCain has done the most to get bloggers the same kind of ride-along access that the national media gets on presidential campaigns.

I like the idea! Anything that punches a few holes in the Titanic-sized egos of the MSM is a blow for democracy.

Posted by Harleycon5 [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 26, 2007 9:32 PM

The excellent and forward conservatism of Fred Thompson cannot be disputed. He says what he believes and that is always refreshing. Recently, on the Laura Ingraham radio program, Thompson told it like it is, stating that we have a problem with Illegal immigration, and Mexico has to deal with the fact that their leading industry is the export of their poor workers. Wow, it was pretty nice to hear it, without the blatant pandering of a McCain or Guliani. Some facts need to be said, not simply assumed.

I for one want a candidate that is not afraid to say he is pro taxcut, that he is pro law enforcement when it comes to our borders, and who guards our right to keep and bear arms.

Godspeed Fred Thompson, we need a candidate the represent us.

Posted by Lew [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 26, 2007 9:34 PM

The idea that made Giuliani interesting was his record of leadership in a crisis, his natural combativeness and his consistancy on social issues. The idea that made him problematical, on the other hand, was what he was being consistant about; those social issues.

If Fred Thompson can convince Americans that he can match Giuliani's combativeness and be equally consistant about a more congenial set of social issue positions, he can go places.

Posted by Skip Key [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 26, 2007 10:21 PM

If Thompson truly enters the race, there's no longer a need for any of the candidates from Romney on back. My guess is that he'd take a cood portion of the support from all of them, except for the liberal wing of the party which will stick with McCain.

If he announces, he'll probably be immediately in the 20-25% range, essentially tied with Rudy and McCain, and Romney will probably fall back to the mid single digits. And the race will be on.

Posted by AnonymousDrivel [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 26, 2007 10:37 PM

"As far as I know, though, McCain has done the most to get bloggers the same kind of ride-along access that the national media gets on presidential campaigns."

Now that is desperate considering a) it's McCain doing the courting and b) his traditional audience.

F. Thompson is an intriguing option. Some senatorial experience, legitimate conservative, mouthing the right words, commercial appeal, film star in a positive role, strong persona and presence, articulate (can one use that word now?)...

Yeah, the other candidates should worry.

Posted by Carol_Herman [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 26, 2007 10:38 PM

It's like watching separate movies. Instead of a film with many actors, all seeking the "same" goal.

Bush, meanwhile, is managing to screw everything up, in his usual fashion. With, of all things, the old Harriet Miers AG Gonazales "team." Poor schmoes who have no political accumen. And, very little talent.

As to who gets to run in 2008, a lot rests on the luck you get with your health. And, the ways you get seen.

I do understand that Ronald Reagan (who hated to fly), used to drive to any group willing to see him. And, he criss-crossed America! At every point, he went, he made new friends.

From here? I can't tell if all I'm seeing is just "advertisements." Or real building. The kind that takes time. And, works over the long haul.

Yes, Guiliani has actually come very far! He's even overcome NOT running for the senate; and letting Hillary "keep" her seat.

While I don't see the congress making inroads.

Yeah. They're holding "show trials." And, Gonzales won't fair well under the Kliegs. You're just noticing that he's foppish? And, without much talent? YOU'RE JUST NOTICING THIS, NOW?

Well. Welcome on board.

Bush is surrounded by men of limited talents.

He's also managed to break the Sun Tzu rule. Do you know which one I'd like to mention, here?

Sun Tzu said the best generals don't make trouble for themselves, by going to bed with more enemies than they started with when they awoke.

For thousands of years, SOUND ADVICE.

Yet Bush manages to keep stepping into it!

Worse! He's called back the very men that saw to it that his father got fired out of the White House, in 1992.

And, you still don't see a problem?

James Baker, with offices now in Dubai. BIG TIME PROBLEM. Ditto, for Robert Gates.

Ditto, too, for a lot of ENRON boobs who got rescued by this White House.

And, you want things to run well?

Huh?

Is there something still missing from this political mix?

YOU BET'CHA.

Nobody is discussing the ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM. What to do with a president who manages to make all the wrong choices. And, worse still, then gives out plum jobs to affirmative action hires.

Yeah. Makes for interesting name calling. I especially "liked" Harry Bellefonte's words against Condi. He wasn't impressed with her at all.

And, what makes you think that Condi really impresses anybody?

Do you know what's missing?

HONEST APPRAISAL.

You usually call in an accountant. And, what you want is an HONEST APPRAISAL.

This is true when you go to the doctor's office. Bullshit, on the other hand, leads to complications.

I know it's early in the "selection process."

But what's missing? Iowa and New Hampshire have been cut off at the pass. Seems a lot of other people want to have their voices heard. And, then?

We won't really know how the race shapes up until we come close to the finish line.

Lots can happen as horses run around a track.

And, so far? What seems to be missing is an HONEST TALK about what went wrong with Bush. Who seems not to LISTEN. I'd bet he's totally clueless when this stuff blows up on him.

Now, I don't think this "cluelessness" melds over to Guiliani's camp. Or Thompson's camp.

But the American people are becoming OUTRAGED. Doesn't seem to bubble up into any dialog, yet. With any candidate.

Now, if you want to go back to the 1970's, let me tell ya. Ronald Reagan was PLUGGED IN! He was talking about the stuff that was IRRITATING AMERICANS. (Heck, I can still remember his discussions about Welfare Queens. And, other assorted crapola that flowed out of congress. Making lots of Americans MAD.)

Bush's disease? He won't talk about his foibles.

And, so far? You know anyone else in public life that's raised a voice?

While, yes, Captain. I give you lots and lots of credit! You want to see TALENT being chosen for jobs.

And, instead? Bush is still locked into his incompetent cronies.

You know what else Bush lost? He's NOT seen as a nice guy!

By the way, Ronald Reagan never had to fake his popularity. It was really there! He tapped into America's sense of GOOD WILL.

And, perhaps? Guiliani has done the same?

Fred Thompson? Ya know, I'm willing to be amazed, ahead. But I don't see him able to raise the money, necessary. I don't think he has the "machinery" in place. And, Guiliani, running to the CENTER, is the guy to beat.

"Favorite candiate?" I think Bush beat this fable to hell and gone.

Posted by reliapundit - the astute blogger [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 26, 2007 10:43 PM

thompson is likable, but there is absolutely nothing in his CV which leads me to think he could be a good wartime CinC; in fact, he has ZERO management experience.

ZERO.

Reagan had been governor of the largest state during a rough era, and leader of the conservatives for a long time before running AND LOSING in1976.

Thompson is good veep material - at best. maybe.

is he better than mccain? yes.
is he more conservative than rudy? yes.
is he more folksy than mitt? yes.

but like mccain he has ZERO executive experience.

sure: i'd vote for him over any dem. but he's not the best wartime POTUS material.

only rudy is.and mitt's 2nd place.

i think RIDGE should jump into the race.

he's a vet..
a proven vote-getter on PA and very polular ex-guv there - and PA is a MUST WIN state since OHIO looks nearly impossible.
he has exp at DoHS and acted well during his state's 9/11.
he's good on taxes.
he was a good congressman.
and tho pro-choice a fairly conservative guy.

i think he has the executive ability to be CinC.

he has the CV that thompson lacks.

Posted by das411 [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 26, 2007 11:00 PM

Thanks you reliapundit! I have been saying for a while that Ridge is a better candidate than most who are out there, although you have to wonder what the national view of him would be after the two years or so of his only exposure to the public being to announce the color-coded terror alerts.

I could see Ridge serving as the #2 to balance out a southern non-executive candidate like McCain or Gingrich...or a still-unknown candidate like Dr. Rice or Rep. Pence...

...and there is the minor detail of his wanting to stay out of public life and enjoy (why not, he's earned it) the life of a semi-lobbyist!

Posted by RBMN [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 12:09 AM

Until candidates are in the race, they're sort of half-candidates. So, I think on the day that Fred Thompson actually declares, he'll be even in the polls with McCain. Just like that. Then watch the contributions. That might be the first race that Thompson wins handily.

Posted by Rose [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 12:14 AM

Thompson is far better than the RINOS in the race, but so far, I like Duncan Hunter better than Thompson.

I won't vote for Thompson - regardless - he voted for McCain Feingold. fini

I would vote for Duncan Hunter, though I'm not convinced he is my favorite candidate.

I won't vote for any like Thompson or anyone Left of him, like Rudi, McCain, Mitt or Newt.

And BTW, is Rudi his current wife's 3rd of 4th hubby?

The news now is getting so confusing on this, like with Newt! And McCain.

I've settled for "adequate" before.

And these RINOS are hardly THAT!

It won't do.

Let's see if we aren't capable of rousting out someone who is at least "merely" qualified.

This isn't a date for the Spring Fling.

Posted by Fight4TheRight [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 12:53 AM

I'm certainly not an expert on this so I need some help. Can someone tell me who was the last Republican elected President directly from either the Senate or the House? (that doesn't mean a Vice President who was subsequently elected to the Presidency)

And also, am I correct in that the last Democrat elected President directly from either the Senate or the House was John F. Kennedy in 1961?

Thanks in advance for your help!

Posted by The Mechanical Eye [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 1:00 AM

Yeah.

But Thompson hasn't done much. He has no record to speak of his short tenure in the Senate.

Maybe, as Instapundit pointed out, that may not be considered a negative. But can easily be spun against him:

"Wow, all that tough, tell-it-like-it-is talk, and he didn't do anything in the Senate! All hat and no cattle! We've had enough of that in the White House."

Also, that Guliani is far in the lead despite all this speaks to his staying power; that Romney got battered so easily by a relative newcomer in the rase also speaks to his.

DU

Posted by RBMN [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 1:01 AM

Rose wrote: "I won't vote for Thompson - regardless - he voted for McCain Feingold. fini"

If it's any comfort, Thompson agrees now that that was a mistake. It took him way too long to figure that out, but he finally did.

Posted by Adjoran [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 1:07 AM

In the 17 major polls over the last two months, Giuliani has ranged from 26-44% support, while McCain's range has been 13-24%.

The Republican half of the USAT sample ("Republicans and Republican leaners") amounts to less than 500 respondents with a MOE of 5%. Gallup is, in fact, still showing a McCain slide. It's tough comparing one poll against another unless you can demonstrate some historic correlation.

Thompson is probably peeling off some soft Giuliani support, it only makes sense. McCain hasn't any soft support left to lose, Romney never had any, and Gingrich attracts the sort of support which would view Thompson's record with suspicion. However, it's easy enough to peel off soft support when you aren't in the race.

Courting the campaign guarantees good media - the media always want more candidates, hoping for a horse race between at least two of them, so they entice them in with a low, mellow indirect lighting and soothing music. Once they take the plunge, though, the lights become harshly bright and unforgiving and the music turns into an annoying staccato of embarrassing questions.

Given his lack of relevant experience and less-than-perfect conservative record, Thompson would immediately put his own soft support at risk.

He reportedly left the Senate because he hated the fundraising. If he hated the level for a moderately-populated border state, wait 'til he sinks his hip-waders into the national campaign waters.

Until he says yea or nay, many will project upon him the values and abilities they WISH he would possess. It's the equivalent of Obama for the Democrats - you can write your own hopes down on a slip of paper, burn it, and if a butterfly lights on the ashes, your wish will come true.

Posted by The Mechanical Eye [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 1:12 AM

Also, Fight4TheRight:

For a Republican who went from the Senate to the White House directly, you have to go back to Warren G. Harding, who was senator of Ohio before winning the presidency in 1920.

As for Congress, you have to go back even further, to James A. Garfield.

DU

Posted by Rose [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 5:44 AM

Rose wrote: "I won't vote for Thompson - regardless - he voted for McCain Feingold. fini"
If it's any comfort, Thompson agrees now that that was a mistake. It took him way too long to figure that out, but he finally did.


Posted by: RBMN

*********

It would have been a comfort if he had admitted that during the 2004 campaign season.

Since he's waited until NOW, when he's THINKING of entering this race himself, it's a day late and a dollar short - and I ain't in the market for guys THIS SEASON who want me to "trust them" that they've changed or learned, when their confessions come WITHIN THE CAMPAIGN.

He owes me some BONA FIDIES, I DO NOT OWE HIM ANY TRUST.

I've been burned before.

Posted by Rose [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 5:53 AM


For those supporting McCain, Rudi, Mitt, Newt, and Thompson, just think "Robert Dole -'96".

You've got an extremely jaded Conservative base to deal with - none of these candidates will get to first base.

You guys know the problems with each of these guys, get a hold of that orange and squeeze untill you get some real juice to flow.

Quit trying to feed us the dirt on the outside of the peelings.

Posted by Mr Lynn [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 7:01 AM

If I can distill anything out of Carol_Herman's stream-of-consciousness ramblings, it is this: If the Democratic sharks continue to chew off pieces of the floundering Bush administration, by the time the election rolls around in 2008 the electorate will have had quite enough, and no Republican will get elected to anything.

Maybe the Bushies should bring Mitt Romney in as Chief of Staff, to help them get back on the ship of state. He has a reputation as a fixer.

Re Fred Thompson: He has been out of the Senate for some time now, back in the Dreaded Private Sector. He makes his living as an actor, but he has also run private law practices in both Nashville and Washington, and claims to be doing consulting in matters of trade and foreign affairs. So he would not be jumping from the Senate to the White House.

My guess is that Fred Thompson has the name—and face—recognition that will leapfrog him over the declared candidates, should he opt in. Furthermore, he has the some combination of commanding presence and common touch that Ronald Reagan had.

I would recommend that he refrain from jumping into the campaign waters until the Fall. Let the others wear out their welcomes; he'll be a fresh face.

Now wouldn't Rudy Guiliani make a great Attorney General?

/Mr Lynn

PS Someone mentioned Tom Ridge. After watching his milquetoast performance at DHS, I suspect Hillary and Carville would eat him for lunch.

Posted by Mr Lynn [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 7:08 AM

Oh rats! Correction: The sentence re Thompson should read,

"Furthermore, he has the same combination of commanding presence and common touch that Ronald Reagan had.

/Mr Lynn

Posted by james23 [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 12:15 PM

"If I can distill anything out of Carol_Herman's stream-of-consciousness ramblings, it is this: If the Democratic sharks continue to chew off pieces of the floundering Bush administration, by the time the election rolls around in 2008 the electorate will have had quite enough, and no Republican will get elected to anything."

That's a great summary, and it scares the heck out of me. Our candidates are way better than theirs, but I don't know that any of them will be able to overcome the damage of this slo-mo disaster of a second term.

Posted by Fight4TheRight [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 1:59 PM

DU /TheMechanicalEye

Thank you so much for the help with my questions - much appreciated.

Posted by viking01 [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 2:59 PM

What I appreciate about Fred Thompson is his ability to leave Washington and return to the real world having no qualms about it. That is the complete opposite of Senator Robert K Byrd who will require a white sheet to get him out of politics different from the white sheets that got him in.

Thompson is an interesting fellow who obviously is content with who he is and doesn't need any particular job or glorification to feel important. He does not chase the camera like McCain or need washed up Letterman to provide a pulpit for him.

I think that Thompson would be an outstanding presidential candidate who coupled with Giuliani as VP or AG could be a political powerhouse in the tradition of Ronaldus Magnus. Both Thompson and Giuliani are willing to do the job but not needing the job, like Bubba the Perv for instance, to be a person of accomplishment.

Old Democrat hacks like Baba Wawa, Bob Schieffer,Katie Couric and Tim Russert would be quaking in their shoes at the prospect of Fred Thompson's slow and easy yet shrewd demeanor while Hillary's shrew demeanor is of eyes bugging out psychotically while she shriekingly implodes in an unscripted debate.

Posted by Only_One_Cannoli [TypeKey Profile Page] | March 27, 2007 6:06 PM

As far as continued attacks on Bush souring the voters on republican candidates I don't see it happening. Bush isn't running for office and after a while all that constant sniping looks petty which may be why Hillary is suddenly talking about her gratitude to Bush.

my .02 - most voters re-discovered their appreciation for gridlock and they are not likely (might say they're very wary) to give either party control over both the legislative and executive branch which means republicans have a slight advantage in the 2008 pres. race.

Thompson's interesting - his leaving the senate either means he has some dignity or ethics or brains or he just had better job prospects - any one of those reasons helps him in a race against the dem. congressman/woman that he'd likely be running against.