April 7, 2007

Not Time To Panic For McCain

John McCain's campaign will try to re-establish itself after a tough first quarter, the Wall Street Journal reports, and as the WSJ notes, he needs the re-set. His fundraising hasn't met expectations, and McCain's efforts to support the war has apparently alienated some of the moderates he hoped to attract:

In short order, John McCain has gone from Republican presidential front-runner to political death watch. On Wednesday, the Arizona senator kicks off a month of high-profile events, seeking a resurrection of sorts.

He badly needs it. Mr. McCain just reported raising $12.5 million for the first-quarter -- behind Republican rivals Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani, as well as Democrats Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. Most analysts won't go so far as to bury Mr. McCain, citing his Republican rivals' own baggage: Both Mr. Romney and Mr. Giuliani are suspect among social conservatives for their records supporting abortion and gay rights, and gun control. But the one-time GOP front-runner clearly had a very bad week.

It began with reports of the heavily guarded senator shopping at a Baghdad market and declaring "things are better," and it ended with a New Hampshire poll showing Mr. McCain, the longtime leader in that first-primary state, now in a dead heat with Mr. Romney. Sandwiched in between were the stories of his money woes.

All of that makes next week -- and the next month -- critical to the survival of his candidacy. Mr. McCain's campaign scheduled three policy speeches in consecutive weeks, culminating April 25-27 with his "official" announcement tour through early nominating states of New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina and finally to his home state of Arizona. Wednesday's first speech, at the Virginia Military Institute, will showcase Mr. McCain's "commitment to winning the war in Iraq."

I'm not sure that McCain's been on a "death watch". If anything, his support of the war effort may have helped shore up his credentials among conservatives who found themselves off-put by Rudy Giuliani's rhetorical fumble on abortion this week. The campaign has known it would come up short on fundraising for the last couple of weeks -- but even that needs to be put in perspective, as $12.5 million far outstrips George Bush's $7 million from 1999 Q1.

McCain's problem is that he has assumed the mantle of the Iraq war in this election, whether by accident or design. That may work well for him in the primaries, as the other GOP candidates do not have the same access to policy that he does as a sitting Senator on the Armed Services committee. However, if Petraeus does not make continued progress over the next few months, McCain will start feeling the weight of the campaign even in the GOP primaries. If he gets the nomination, the Democrats wil make him their Bush proxy in the general election.

It's still early, and McCain has access to the national stage like few other candidates. He can right his campaign as long as his team doesn't panic. They may be a little back in fundraising, but they have plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments.

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Comments (13)

Posted by Mwalimu Daudi [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 7, 2007 4:24 PM

McCain's problem is that he has assumed the mantle of the Iraq war in this election, whether by accident or design.

Frankly, I doubt it. Both Romney and Giuliani maintain support for the War in Iraq.

McCain's problems (plural) are his support for a guest worker program, his conversion to a global-warming fanatic, and (his signature issue) his attempts to destroy the Constitution in the name of "campaign finance reform". If that does not attract "moderates", I don't know what will.

Posted by richard mcenroe [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 7, 2007 4:32 PM

No matter who the GOP runs, the Democrats will paint him as the heir of Bush.

They have no other issue.

That is why the GOP's pre-election policy of distancing themselves from Bush was as craven as it was counter-productive...

Posted by Mwalimu Daudi [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 7, 2007 4:32 PM

Incidently, Hilly the Hun raking in $26M and the Empty Suit $25M almost a year before the first primary is a pretty penny - or two. Boy, I am sure glad that McCain-Feingold got rid of big money in political campaigns!

Posted by msdl5 [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 7, 2007 6:16 PM

McCain ONLY has his stance on the war to keep him in the Republican primary race.

Without his stance on the war, his problems with the base would have him in Tancredo territory.

Posted by richard mcenroe [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 7, 2007 6:49 PM

Maybe McCain should explore a McCain/Buchanan ticket and get it over with...

Posted by gaffo [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 7, 2007 10:04 PM

msdl5 - SPOT ON!!

and THAT is why he is toast in the General if nominated by the Right.

I hope to God his is nominated!!

Posted by Rose [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 7, 2007 10:47 PM

It's still early, and McCain has access to the national stage like few other candidates. He can right his campaign as long as his team doesn't panic. They may be a little back in fundraising, but they have plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments.

I pray they are unable to make any "positive" adjustments.

On the other hand, it would be a great privilege to me to write in Oliver North's name on the ballot in the General Election.

Posted by Rose [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 7, 2007 10:54 PM

McCain ONLY has his stance on the war to keep him in the Republican primary race.

Without his stance on the war, his problems with the base would have him in Tancredo territory.

Posted by: msdl5

***********************

And WHAT a stance on the war, with the anti-torture bill against the troops, and his stance against GITMO, too...soooooooooo impressive.

So barfing.

I agree with the Arizona GOP Caucus that unaminously censured him and begged the national GOP to do the same!

I live fairly close to the Mexico border in Texas . I know how he feels about Border Security, too!

His cold dead body will be making snow angels in hell a million years before I would consider voting for someone to cross the street and p*$$ on him if he were to catch himself on fire.

Posted by Rose [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 7, 2007 11:04 PM

Maybe McCain should explore a McCain/Buchanan ticket and get it over with...

Posted by: richard mcenroe

**********************

McCain/Kucinich would do him just as well. I'm sure Kucinich could bring a drastic upswing to the ticket for McCain.

Posted by Skip Key [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 7, 2007 11:50 PM

The only people that ever thought McCain was the frontrunner were the imbecilic reporters in the MSM, because he was the only semi-popular candidate they could even partially stomach, so they assumed he would be the candidate and did their parts pushing him.

And of course he's screwed, because either he moves away from his base in the MSM , in order to move towards the Republican base, which will lose him his core constituency. And it probably won't even pick up many Republican votes because of the long bad blood. Or he can keep his base happy in the MSM and forget any possible chance of winning the nomination.

Posted by heldmyw [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 8, 2007 4:43 PM

The "Gang of 14" business, the global warming boobery, the campaign finance joke, and frankly, his age. It may not be PC, but 72?

Thanks John, but you've done more than your 'bit' for this country. Why not take a few golden years off and relax?

Posted by Rose [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 8, 2007 11:03 PM

And of course he's screwed, because either he moves away from his base in the MSM , in order to move towards the Republican base, which will lose him his core constituency. And it probably won't even pick up many Republican votes because of the long bad blood. Or he can keep his base happy in the MSM and forget any possible chance of winning the nomination.


Posted by: Skip Key

*********************

NAILED TO THE WALL! DEAD ON!

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Posted by: heldmyw
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Oh, yeah! Time for McC to take a nice LONG vacation.

Posted by neoskeptic [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 10, 2007 10:16 AM

you should read this article: americans want more gun control because of 9-11

http://digg.com/politics/Majority_of_Americans_in_Favor_of_Stricter_Gun_Laws_Since_9_11#c6084346