April 23, 2007

Former Putin Advisor: Russia Is The Next Zimbabwe

Der Spiegel interviewed Andrei Illarionov, a former economic advisor to Vladimir Putin, to discuss the recent political strife in Russia. Illarionov did not paint a pleasant picture of what lies ahead. Despite robust economic growth and a lack of military enemies, Putin has begun dismantling democratic institutions and moving towards a police state:

SPIEGEL: We see the same images in the news almost every weekend: The powerful state has its police officers converge with clubs on small groups of protestors. Given his popularity, does President Vladimir Putin really need this?

Illarionov: Those in power deliberately use violence to intimidate. They want to break the people's will to resist and act independently, and to do so they are constantly raising the level of aggression. Unlike the mass terror under Hitler, Stalin and Mao, we in Russia are currently experiencing a campaign of terror against individuals and groups.

SPIEGEL: Who is conducting it?

Illarionov: Employees of the intelligence agencies. These people now occupy more than 70 percent of all top positions in the state machinery. The destruction of Mikhail Khodorkovsky's Yukos oil company, the murder of journalist Anna Politkovskaya, the polonium poisoning of former agent Alexander Litvinenko -- the goal in each of these cases is to keep society in a state of constant fear. That makes it easier to control the people. This is the only reason the state-controlled media are allowed to report at length on these cases. It contributes to the climate of fear.

Putin says, according to Illarionov, that there are no former intelligence agents. The former KGB chief has made good use of his colleagues from the intel community, moving them into positions of power in order to strengthen his autocratic rule. Illarionov also made clear that Putin will almost certainly stick around for a third term in office, regardless of the constitution, as his underlings have already begun making it impossible for him to refuse.

When asked about Western business interests and how they can be brought into play, Illarionov talked coyly about action. He said that he wouldn't presume to tell Germany about how to conduct business with Boris Gryzlov, the Speaker of the Duma, who praised the police response to the demonstrations in Moscow last week. DS asked Illarionov whether the West should kick Putin and Russia out of the G-8, and he would only answer that "One cannot overestimate the options the West has available with which it can apply pressure on Russia."

Clearly Illarionov would like to see economic pressure brought to bear on Putin, or at least some form of resistance from the West to the anti-democratic moves made by Putin. He asserted that Putin would become a Mugabe-like figure, someone who rose to power on the promise of democracy but who in the end would destroy the nation in the pursuit of personal power. "We suffer from the Zimbabwean disease," Illarionov told Der Spiegel, and it would create diplomatic and economic isolation for Russia unless stopped. In this case, the best cure might be a small measure now of the end result of the disease.

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