April 25, 2007

Why No One Wants An American Withdrawal

The Guardian (UK) has relentlessly opposed the war in Iraq for the past four years and more, giving its readers on the Left a steady diet of bad news and angry opinion based on its editorial policy. British newspapers have an open editorial bias, and readers expect news from a point of view. Guardian readers may find themselves surprised today, however, to find a detailed explanation of all the reasons why the nations in the Middle East do not want an American withdrawal from Iraq -- and the catastrophes that would follow one:

The so-called axis of moderate Arab states - comprising Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan - dreads an early US withdrawal. First, because it would be widely interpreted as an American defeat, which would weaken these pro-American regimes while both energising and radicalising their populations.

Second, if the US leaves, the emergence of a Shia regime in Iraq - in itself an offensive prospect to them - would only be a matter of time. Facing Arab antipathy, this regime would be likely to look eastward and forge close ties with its Iranian co-religionists. In the view of most Arabs, this would present a formidable challenge, setting in motion a series of dangerous events - an Iranian-Iraqi alliance; political and material support from Arab countries being offered to disgruntled Iraqi Sunni groups; retaliation by Iraqi forces; and the threat of broader regional involvement.

Third, a US departure risks triggering Iraq's partition. As some Arabs see it, the occupation is what holds the country together. So long as coalition forces are deployed, a full-blown breakup can be avoided.

The fallout of a withdrawal would not be contained within Iraq, either. An Iranian hegemony in Iraq would allow the radical Shi'a of both nations to export their destabilizing influence to other nations with restive Shi'ite populations, most notably Bahrain. From there, it could spread to the other smaller emirates in the region, destabilizing the power structure that the Sunnis have built in the last century -- a power structure based on oppression and religious fanatacism of their own, to be sure. Without American forces based in the region, we would have no ability to control or shape the outcome of such a collapse.

A partition of Iraq could prove even worse for the region. If Iraqi Kurdistan declares its independence, the Turks will almost certainly declare war on the new state. They already have a problem with their own Kurds, one that has not improved with Iraqi liberation and democratization. A secession of Iraqi Kurdistand would prompt Turkish Kurds to declare their own independence to form a greater Kurdistan. Syrian Kurds might do the same thing, although destabilizing Bashar Assad's regime may not be a bad idea.

Hussein Agha does not make these points in favor of American occupation. In fact, he believes that the "magic has taken over the magician," and that the US has boxed itself into a situation with no exit solutions. However, his argument becomes all the more powerful as a result. We cannot just walk away from Iraq; no matter how bad some believe it to be, the chain of events a precipitate withdrawal will commence will be exponentially worse for the region and for the US.

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» Get Out of Iraq – Not So Fast Say The Arabs from Fly At Night
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» Why No One Wants An American Withdrawal from NoisyRoom.net
Courtesy of Captain’s Quarters: The Guardian (UK) has relentlessly opposed the war in Iraq for the past four years and more, giving its readers on the Left a steady diet of bad news and angry opinion based on its editorial policy. British newsp... [Read More]

» 2007.04.25 Dem Perfidy // Islamism Delenda Est Roundup from Bill's Bites
Let's put it in even simpler terms: Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi and a number of other powerful Democrats have bet the future of the Democratic party, and with it their own futures, on an American failure in Iraq. Having done so it's only natural and to be... [Read More]

Comments (23)

Posted by DaveR [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 7:39 AM

Oh, come on... surely the interests of the Democratic Party outweigh these overblown concerns?! It's all about politics: didn't you get Harry's memo?

Posted by Tom Shipley [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 7:50 AM

Boy, what an f'ing mess Bush has created.

"Third, a US departure risks triggering Iraq's partition. As some Arabs see it, the occupation is what holds the country together. So long as coalition forces are deployed, a full-blown breakup can be avoided."

Great, guess we'll just stay their indefinitely.

My position is as it's been for a while, START drawing down troop levels. MAKE Iraqis step up.

I think the new direction that Gates is taking, inching toward drawing down the American presence, is good. I don't agree with the Dem bill that would have troops out within a year. If anything, they should draft a funding bill that would basically enact the Baker-Hamilton suggestions. That would start reducing the American presence in Iraq, while not abandoning it. And if Bush vetoed it, he would be the clear loser, political speaking.

As it stands now, Dems pushing the wrong strategy, for the war and for themselves politically.

Posted by RonC [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 7:56 AM

"No one" ... but Democrats.

No amount of international upheaval, death, bloodletting, war and attacks on American lands and citizens is more important than gaining more political power - by being able to say that BUSH LOST!

The entire Middle East, and the whole world could lose - but these meat-heads wouldn't care - if they thought they could win somehow politically from it.

They're willing to commit treason, cause more death and danger to women and children in Iraq and see more Americans endangered right here in EVERY-TOWN - as long as they think they can gain a few more votes from their treasonous ways.

Posted by RonC [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 8:08 AM

What I really want to know is, why haven't Democrats been hanged yet for the treason they have already committed.

Posted by SoldiersMom [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 8:11 AM

From RonC: "They're willing ... - as long as they think they can gain a few more votes from their treasonous ways."

I've read this for a year or more now, but does this really get them votes? I'm asking here. Is this really a winning strategy, or do Dems just think it is? I find it hard to believe that the majority supports their latest rhetoric.

Posted by Tom Shipley [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 8:34 AM

"What I really want to know is, why haven't Democrats been hanged yet for the treason they have already committed."

Because they haven't committed treason.

And if you want hangings, I suggest you move to Iraq. Plenty there.

Posted by jerry [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 9:09 AM

Tom:

Treason is very difficult to define for anything short of actual consorting with the enemy. The closest any Democrat has come to this has been Pelosi’s visit to Assad. Since we are not formally at war with Syria this doesn’t meet the standard either.

However, I think the Democrats and their supporters are certainly guilty of Copperheadism which can be defines as identifying with the enemy while still maintaining what they believe is loyalty to the country. Copperheads show malevolence to their elected leaders and naiveté about their country’s opponent’s war objectives. Just as the Civil War Copperheads truly believed that the all Confederacy wanted was a return to the status quo ante, today’s Copperheads believe that all the insurgents want is an end to the “occupation” and a righting of western wrongs. Both are sadly mistaken.

The one major difference between Civil War Copperheads and today’s equivalent is that the Civil War variety opposed Lincoln because a particular view of the Constitution. But today’s Copperheads are only motivated by the will to power the country be damned.

Posted by Tom Shipley [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 9:59 AM

LarryD,

If you look at Supreme Court rulings on treason, one has to prove that a person's intent was treasonous.

Personally, I think the idea that a person stating their opinion that we cannot win a certain conflict is perposterous. We have to be allowed to speak the truth as we see it. If our comments are not meant to aid the enemy, then it's not treason. case closed. stop making the claim any time a dem opens their mouth.

Personally, I think Reid was wrong to say we have lost the war. I think I agree with him in that we aren't going to win it with the current strategy. We can't "win" militarily. But there's no reason for that kind of rhetoric and better, more constructive ways to get that point across.

Posted by Tom Shipley [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 10:06 AM

"The one major difference between Civil War Copperheads and today’s equivalent is that the Civil War variety opposed Lincoln because a particular view of the Constitution. But today’s Copperheads are only motivated by the will to power the country be damned."

Yeah, that's it. Those who oppose the war in Iraq don't do it because

A) It's bad strategy in the GWOT.
B) It wasn't necessary.
C) Has been managed as if by the Three Stooges.
D) Is showing signs of stagnation with violence rising while our men and women are caught in the middle.
E) Current policy is not working.
F) Want to follow the suggestion of the Baker-Hamilton commission that suggests we start lessoning the presence of US forces in Iraq

It's none of those things. it's that they are political leaches, sucking on any issue that will keep them in power.

Posted by Angry Dumbo [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 10:07 AM

Either the U.S. military is a force for stability or it a cause of instability in Iraq.

If the Congress determines that our presence in Iraq is not helping but hurting the cause of stability in Iraq and the region, then they should vote their conscience to cut off funding.

All else is politics and theatre.

Posted by Tom Shipley [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 10:15 AM

"If the Congress determines that our presence in Iraq is not helping but hurting the cause of stability in Iraq and the region, then they should vote their conscience to cut off funding."

This is a false choice as you don't need to cut off funding to begin the process of lessoning the US presence in Iraq.

Posted by jerry [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 10:28 AM

Tom :

The Civil War Copperheads said the exact same things about Lincoln that you just posted about Bush. They had more reason to make their claims in that more Union soldiers died in a couple a days at the major battles then have been killed in the entire Iraq war. I suggest you read “Copperheads” by Professor Jennifer Weber of the University of Kansas. Taken out of context the writings and speeches of the Copperheads are in many cases indistinguishable from the current rhetoric of the Democratic Party.

Posted by docjim505 [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 10:41 AM

Tom Shipley,

Your impassioned defense of modern-day Copperheads would carry more weight if they had ever given the slightest evidence that they actually want to win (against the terrorists, that is). Unfortunately, they haven't. Even while they've railed against Bush and his "incompetence" and "arrogance" and "unilateralism", they haven't made a single helpful suggestion. All they've got - all they've ever had - is cut 'n' run.

You're right: it isn't treason in the legal sense, but it IS a hollow, self-serving policy that does nobody but them any good.

Posted by RBMN [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 10:42 AM

I think I'd like to read all of Sen. Harry Reid's US and international email communications for the last three years, and look at all of his office (and personal) phone records. That should be no problem, right? It's just citizen "oversight." He's a supporter of that. No?

Posted by Del Dolemonte [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 10:54 AM

Tom Shipley sez:

"If you look at Supreme Court rulings on treason, one has to prove that a person's intent was treasonous"

What jas the Supreme Court ruled about SEDITION ?

Posted by Courtneyme109 [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 11:09 AM


Iraq is now a giant sucking killing machine for wanna be Jihadis, Syrian and Iranian proxies. Iran has blown over a billion dollars funding losers like Mookie al Sadr and his Mahdi Army 5.0., Al Dawa, Badr Army Corps - even old school false flag ops recruiting sunni militias and their on again off again deals with Al Qaeda -still Iran has nothing to show for it - no theocracy or caliphate anywhere in Iraq and no super Iranian influenced shia majority in the government. Talk about a quagmire!

So while America truly wishes to establish a tolerant, egalitarian society with a free, uncensored press and transparent open elections and in time She might - for right now, continuing the surge replete with the ray ban wearing, cigar chomping sons of the Great Satan right in the Mullahs face may be the best thing to do especially since intolerant, gender apartheiding, honor killing, corrupt, murderous illegitimate regimes want America to leave.

Posted by Matt [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 11:24 AM

I understand the fear of full societal collapse in the middle-east and I know a withdrawal would be catastrophic on many levels. What I don't understand is how you can continue to put your faith in the leader that led us off this cliff in the first place! The person who didn't even know the difference between sunni and shia prior to invasion. The people who, the day before the last election continued to repeat the talking point, "we are winning in iraq" and then THE NEXT DAY fired Donald Rumsfeld. The people who told us it would take 6 months at the most, and viciously attacked anyone who called them out on their unjustified optimism, questioning the patriotism of veterans like Jack Murtha who on may 7th, 2004 told the president we did not have enough troops to get the job done. Guess what? He was right! Senator Norm Coleman attacked him for 'emboldening the enemy' and 'hurting the morale of the troops', it's disgusting. This isn't a political game, people's lives are on the line!

Posted by Mr Lynn [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 11:35 AM

We cannot leave Iraq, because to do so would open it up to Iranian domination of the Iraqi oil fields, and Iranian control of the whole northern Gulf. It will also leave Al Qaeda free to organize and train terrorists in Anbar, and to spread jihad throughout the civilized world.

It is hard to imagine these would be acceptable alternatives for any American president, even a Democrat. Therefore, we are staying in Iraq, for a long time to come. Q.E.D.

/Mr Lynn

Posted by Tom Shipley [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 1:22 PM

"What jas the Supreme Court ruled about SEDITION?"

Not really sure, but I haven't seen anyone call for the overthrow of the government (outside of voting them out), so not sure why you ask.

Posted by Joselito [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 2:23 PM

Mr. Shipley's tenuous grasp of the world situation vis-a-vis the war against Islamofascism and the situation in Iraq and in Aphganistan is startling. It is difficult to believe that we are looking at the same set of facts and seeing the same world events.

How disingenuous is it to believe that surrendering is victory, that a pull out will make the country safer, that the leaders of AQ and of its supporting Middle Eastern countries want democratic electoral victories here in the US because they believe that Republicans are mean and Democrats are nice? What kind of a world is he living in?

Isolate the terrorist harboring countries? Surely that is a joke. I hope that Mr. Shipley keeps posting because Kurt Vonnegut has died and there is no one else around to pick up his mantle of bizarre reality.

Posted by conservative democrat [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 9:54 PM

We don't own Iraq, even though we act like it. The neo-cons WANT to permanently occupy Iraq. They want it as a puppet government, but the Iraqis have different ideas. So Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia (all Sunni dominated) wants us to stay so dictatorships aren't threatened by a Shia Caliphate. Oh, isn't that nice, why don't those gutless countries provide TROOPS AND MONEY TO THE CAUSE. The Sauds in particular who fund Wahhabi schools throughout the world. Their playing both sides. What the neo-cons are arguing is that we can NEVER leave. Just admit it rightwingers, you don't want an exit strategy. You want to control the Middle East and all the Iraqi oil. Only problem is the Iraqis don't want to play that game. They'll fight you for a 1000 years, and you know what? you still won't have a clue. So the grownups will have to get us out of Iraq. You neo-clowns followed bush right off a cliff. And your too damn proud to admit you screwed up. Pathetic

Posted by RBMN [TypeKey Profile Page] | April 25, 2007 11:15 PM

Re: conservative democrat at April 25, 2007 09:54 PM

"conservative democrat"

Is that sort of like being a "100-lb sumo wrestler" or a "300-lb jockey?"